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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1876
seven,  good discussion on insight
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1877
 
 
                                   Tuesday August 11th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1878
MLB System releases Tuesday 08/11/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL
Brewers+152 RL
Yankees-110 RL
RedSox+160 RL ......(Tazawa-r AAA Pawtucket/23)
Twins+105 RL
Rays+152 RL
WhiteSox+130 RL
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
R/R ratio: 18/36  50%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1879
SN, can I have your estimate for total units risked please.


 
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Posted: #1880
any POD today SN?? im really liking MIN RL and MIL RL but hearing a lot of mixed reviews on MIL RL ill have to do further research
 
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Posted: #1881
Quote Originally Posted by snyder9:

SN, can I have your estimate for total units risked please.


Although still early, I anticipate line flucuations* which are connected to value, which are connected to attachments... right now your looking at an investment of aprx 38units; however, this may vary by only 4units in either direction...may you prosper..

SN

 

* Lines posted are "early/opening lines" available at the time of publishing, as the day progresses, so does line flucuation..This is where having a cordinated 'book' designed for MLB wagering is not only essential, but mandatory as a 'tool' to gain Edge, and advantage...Participating in a book that does not offer what others are receiving, puts a capper at a severe dis-advantage re: win to a push, RL payment, Juice payment, reverseRLpayment, declined wagers, -2.5 RL +2.5 RL -1 line, and 5innings connected to all of the previous....SN

 
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Posted: #1882
Quote Originally Posted by acortazz:

any POD today SN?? im really liking MIN RL and MIL RL but hearing a lot of mixed reviews on MIL RL ill have to do further research

"mixed reviews" are just that, reviews based on opinion, and you can't capp a game by opinion..If the leans your reading from your own brain indicate MIN RL/MIL RL then by all means play your mind, and your research..My POD's (if requested) are solely based on value, and value alone, and are capped that way: to capture units....BostonRedSox+162 RL  is my most enthusiastic play on todays card......

SN

 
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Posted: #1883
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1884
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

"mixed reviews" are just that, reviews based on opinion, and you can't capp a game by opinion..If the leans your reading from your own brain indicate MIN RL/MIL RL then by all means play your mind, and your research..My POD's (if requested) are solely based on value, and value alone, and are capped that way: to capture units....BostonRedSox+162 RL  is my most enthusiastic play on todays card......

SN

SN very good insight on this area, since as you very well stated reviews are just that, one persons opinion of the pro and cons of a game, a true and successful person will not rely on what another person says, but rather will rely on what he see's, reads, and anticipates the outcome of a specific event.   It has been my experience that when you rely on someone else's calculations, opinion then 9 out of 10 times I will always lose the best/event.  Continue to keep it tight, and more importantly DO NOT RELY ON ANOTHER PERSONS JUDGEMENT, but RATHER HAVE FAITH IN YOURSELF AND WHAT YOU ARE DOING!  
 
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Posted: #1885
Blacken, you are right. My statement was inaccurate concerning saber metrics. Base Runs is a fairly straight forward formula. Nothing a crash course in Excel can't handle. There has been very little attention paid to the units played on each handicapped game. There have been various questions concerning units played on each handicapped game, but no one has supplied a good answer on how they arrived at that conclusion. The foundation of Sport Networks success is the fact that he has weighed his stronger plays accordingly.( as well as his location of unbelievably sweet lines, that very few people can match).  When we ask people on this board about how these unit plays came to be mathmatically, some take offense others lash out. We are all here to put a little jingle in our collective pockets and have a good time while doing it, so let's chill out a little people. 

Let's share information and not sarcasm.
 
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Posted: #1886
ApacheM  keep it tight
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1887
MLB System releases Tuesday 08/11/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL
Brewers+152 RL
Yankees-110 RL
RedSox+160 RL ......(Tazawa-r AAA Pawtucket/23)
Twins+105 RL
Rays+152 RL
WhiteSox+130 RL
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
R/R ratio: 18/36  50%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1888
Where do you get the numbers needed when handicapping a game like tonight's BoSox game, when the pitcher is coming up from AAA? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #1889
Where do you get the numbers needed when handicapping a game like tonight's BoSox game, when the pitcher is coming up from AAA? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #1890
Where do you get the numbers needed when handicapping a game like tonight's BoSox game, when the pitcher is coming up from AAA? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #1891
Quote Originally Posted by swamppdonkey77:

Where do you get the numbers needed when handicapping a game like tonight's BoSox game, when the pitcher is coming up from AAA? Thanks.
  Same question?   3 times, well to answer you very dierctly, I would go to page 2 of this thread, and that will direct you to the sites SN uses, or you can do some basic research and find a site that you feel comfortable with such as mlb.com espn,com/mlb, baseball-reference.com, cbs.com there are so many of them.
 
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Posted: #1892
Quote Originally Posted by swamppdonkey77:

Where do you get the numbers needed when handicapping a game like tonight's BoSox game, when the pitcher is coming up from AAA? Thanks.
also in regards to AAA, well unless familiar with the total concept, it will be difficult, since chances are that Pitcher never pitched against his opponent, and without that ingrediate how can you estimate exactly or close to his performance.  Me I would scratch that game in it's entirety and find one that does show a pattern, hope this advise helps
 
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Posted: #1893
Quote Originally Posted by sbizzle:

Blacken, you are right. My statement was inaccurate concerning saber metrics. Base Runs is a fairly straight forward formula. Nothing a crash course in Excel can't handle. There has been very little attention paid to the units played on each handicapped game. There have been various questions concerning units played on each handicapped game, but no one has supplied a good answer on how they arrived at that conclusion. The foundation of Sport Networks success is the fact that he has weighed his stronger plays accordingly.( as well as his location of unbelievably sweet lines, that very few people can match).  When we ask people on this board about how these unit plays came to be mathmatically, some take offense others lash out. We are all here to put a little jingle in our collective pockets and have a good time while doing it, so let's chill out a little people. 

Let's share information and not sarcasm.
Units are based on the amount of money you are willing to place aside for the purpose of betting, for incident some people play with 75,000 units others play with 1200 these units are then divided into plays and dispersed accordingly, I believe SN mentioned earlier that his units for ML RL O/U are of each seperate values, which is the basis for his plays.  I could and may very well be wrong on this, but I will research the exact definition and get back
 
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Posted: #1894
In regards to the RedSox+160 RL(wager went in at +146 RL) the game was capped 'situational' a spot play, based on the value of the RL, Fenway Park, Detroits SP, and positioning strategy.. The information on Tazawa, was obtained from the Boston Globe, vegasinsider, and various minor league progress reports, from Pawtucket, and MLB...
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1895
Ok, thanks. sorry for the triple post. All I could find was appearance vs. nyy in that marathon game friday.
 
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Posted: #1896
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB System releases Tuesday 08/11/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Braves+120 RL...win
Brewers+152 RL...loss
Yankees-110 RL...win
RedSox+160 RL ......(Tazawa-r AAA Pawtucket/23)...win
Twins+105 RL...loss
Rays+152 RL...loss
WhiteSox+130 RL...win
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
R/R ratio: 18/36  50%
 
SN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
4-3
units: +10.08
 
 
R/R ratio: 28/36  77.7%
 
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1897
 
 
                                         Wednesday, August 12th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1898
MLB system releases Wednesday 08/12/09 Base_Runs formula...
 
Giants+115 RL
Cardinals-138 RL
Rockies-120 RL
Rays+140 RL
Rangers+142 RL
RedSox-110 RL
Braves+105 RL
 
sevenPACformulated
projected ratio: 5/7  71.4%
 
 
R/R ratio: 18/36  77.7%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1899
whats your best value play SN?
 
 
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Posted: #1900
 GL Kemosabe
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