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MLB system releases...

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Posted: #1851

[Quote: Originally Posted by kreatture]

The mind needs a break sometimes.. he'll be back on Monday I believe.
[/Quote

correct, have a prosperous Sunday

 

SN

 
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Posted: #1852
Quote Originally Posted by Ralph444:

Just a question- Why the non posting of the plays the last two days. Just because of the loss on friday or just no plays due to vacation. I know people have commented that we need to do the math ourselves but sports network would not have initially started posting his projections if he wanted us all to do the math ourselves. Just curious.
 
For those that question the unit assignment to plays, do not bite the hand that feeds you. SN could put any damn units he wanted on his plays/projections and they would be way plus EV so please do not question the man's integrity in regards to unit assignment.

taking a break, adding filters, making adjustments for Monday's action..thx for the 'solid' post  good understanding........

SN

 
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Posted: #1853

Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

I believe you are right, But maybe the man is giving us the opportunity to move on with the theory and allowing each and everyone of us to expand our knowledge and apply the theory in Our own way.  It is like when someone continues to give and give, picks, theory, knowledge to someone, then eventually we as humans tend to  expect or take advantage of this on a daily basis, in reality one most accept the knowledge, apply the knowledge in there own manner to either improve or try again.  SN once told me that no two handicappers are the same, and I agree, since the information and knowledge that I have gained, I have applied these theory to my skills, which consistently improves each day.  In conclusion I highly suggest that we as potential handicappers, take this time to apply what we have learned and if we fail, so be it, try again until you succeed at what you are doing.  As a professional (and I am not talking about 'handicapper' when it comes to finance or personal satisfaction,  I only rely on my own skills, not totally on what another human being perceives a prediction)

One has to put the food on the table......

SN

 
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Posted: #1854
 
 
                                         Monday, August 10th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1855
MLB system releases Monday 08/10/09 Base_Runs formula..
 
Marlins-132 ML
Cardinals-148 ML
Cubs+138 ML
Diamondbacks-146 ML
Giants+120 ML
BlueJays+170 ML
Orioles-124 ML
RedSox+115 ML
Rays-110 ML
WhiteSox-119 ML
 
tenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/10  70%
 
 
R/R ratio: 14/36  39%
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1856
 
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Posted: #1857
there are aprx 50 games left per team,meaning priority is now placed on "spot plays" and situational cappin'... contending teams are now positioning, with an emphasis placed on SP/MR/C.....
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1858
Any pod
 
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Posted: #1859
BALTIMORE-135 ML
 
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Posted: #1860
 GL Kemosabe
 
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Posted: #1861
 
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Posted: #1862
The cappers on this post are very helpful indeed. However, I have to disagree with the person that said that all you need is a fourth grade degree to figure the saber metrics. I have combed over this posts, believe me, trying to piece together how exactly everyone arrives at their numbers, but no one can explain it in a way that makes sense in plain english. This is not a personal slander against SN or Leighton or ML, all have very good ideas and are obviously making a lot of money. I just wish there was a way to understand the math of 'the edge' in a way that someone could explain a little more clearly. 'Capping for Dummies' if you will. 

There seems to be a lot of 'hidden' numbers that are implicit that seems to lose the ameteur capper. I guess this is a call for help, not a slander, to help the ameteur capper develop his system.

Thank you and GL
 
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Posted: #1863
Quote Originally Posted by sbizzle:

The cappers on this post are very helpful indeed. However, I have to disagree with the person that said that all you need is a fourth grade degree to figure the saber metrics. I have combed over this posts, believe me, trying to piece together how exactly everyone arrives at their numbers, but no one can explain it in a way that makes sense in plain english. This is not a personal slander against SN or Leighton or ML, all have very good ideas and are obviously making a lot of money. I just wish there was a way to understand the math of 'the edge' in a way that someone could explain a little more clearly. 'Capping for Dummies' if you will. 

There seems to be a lot of 'hidden' numbers that are implicit that seems to lose the ameteur capper. I guess this is a call for help, not a slander, to help the ameteur capper develop his system.

Thank you and GL
  Hey personallly I respect your position in not knowing where to place the numbers and how to retrieve them, not aa problem since it has always been assumed that when people read the thread they adapt to what is said, and also you will never come to the same numbers as another capper will, since each of us always adapts there own system.  I would be more then happy to further assist you i strategies and how and where to place the numbers in the RC-Bsr Formula if need be, PM me and we will try and work this out
 
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Posted: #1864
I have a quick question with this formula..


On the "S"  it is single right?  I was looking up on the team stats, is the hits consider single once you subtract the double, triple and HR?

Thanks
Dsiu79
 
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Posted: #1865
Quote Originally Posted by dsiu79:

I have a quick question with this formula..


On the "S"  it is single right?  I was looking up on the team stats, is the hits consider single once you subtract the double, triple and HR?

Thanks
Dsiu79
S= SIngles, D= Double, T Triple, No you take your hits which includes S,D,T,HR
 
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Posted: #1866
I am sorry seven, I only see, H, B, T, and HR but there is no single??
 
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Posted: #1867
Quote Originally Posted by dsiu79:

I have a quick question with this formula..


On the "S"  it is single right?  I was looking up on the team stats, is the hits consider single once you subtract the double, triple and HR?

Thanks
Dsiu79


Disu - Understanding the basics is a prerequisite.The "how and why" is imperative. Think about when you were a kid, they taught  you the alphabet before sentences right.
 This might help.

Calculating total bases:
 

    Method 1

  1. Step 1

    Multiply singles by 1.

  2. Step 2

    Multiply doubles by 2.

  3. Step 3

    Multiply triples by 3.

  4. Step 4

    Multiply home runs by 4.

  5. Step 5

    Add the sums together. This is total bases.

    6. Method 2

  6. Step 1

    Add total hits and doubles together.

  7. Step 2

    Add to this number 2 times the number of triples.

  8. Step 3

    Add to this number 3 times the number of home runs. This is total bases.

 
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Posted: #1868
Quote Originally Posted by sbizzle:

The cappers on this post are very helpful indeed. However, I have to disagree with the person that said that all you need is a fourth grade degree to figure the saber metrics. I have combed over this posts, believe me, trying to piece together how exactly everyone arrives at their numbers, but no one can explain it in a way that makes sense in plain english. This is not a personal slander against SN or Leighton or ML, all have very good ideas and are obviously making a lot of money. I just wish there was a way to understand the math of 'the edge' in a way that someone could explain a little more clearly. 'Capping for Dummies' if you will. 

There seems to be a lot of 'hidden' numbers that are implicit that seems to lose the ameteur capper. I guess this is a call for help, not a slander, to help the ameteur capper develop his system.

Thank you and GL


  sbizzle - It appears you have read  at least some of the thread. Good start. There is a lot of information on these 75 pages. If you have specific questions I would be glad to assist if I can. I won't help someone who will not help himself first. (LAZY)
  Your quote, red text above, is in accurate. DaveBonds Says; "I am just too dumb to figure out the math behind this system which is a shame as I am sure I missing out."  I replied "I highly doubt you are too dumb for the math. If you completed the fourth grade in the USA you know it.". 
 The context of saber metrics can become complex. What we appy and discuss here in this thread is basic.

Here is the Basic version:

A = H + BB - HR

B = [1.4*TB -.6*H -3*HR +.1*BB] *1.02

C = AB - H

D = HR

Don't get caught up in making it more complicated than it is. 

In reference to units applied, that is a completely different topic. I would recommend one step at a time.

Think of this as education. One does not graduate grammar school and become a CEO of a Blue Chip Corp. the next week.

BLKN





 
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Posted: #1869
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

BALTIMORE-135 ML


Baltimore ???  I had 20 Units on Oakland.
 
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Posted: #1870
K4ngur13   conratulations on your winning play
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1871
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]
MLB system releases Monday 08/10/09 Base_Runs formula..
 
Marlins-132 ML....win
Cardinals-148 ML...win
Cubs+138 ML...loss
Diamondbacks-146 ML...win
Giants+120 ML...loss
BlueJays+142 ML...win
Orioles-124 ML...loss
RedSox+115 ML...win
Rays-110 ML...loss
WhiteSox-119 ML...loss
 
tenPACformulated
projected ratio: 7/10  70%
 
 
R/R ratio: 14/36  39%
 
SN
 
 
FINAL RESULTS:
5-5
units: +4.18
 
R/R ratio: 18/36  50%
 
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Posted: #1872
ApacheM keep it tight[medium strength]
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1873
snyder9  spot plays to the forefront
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1874
mojator how was your holiday?
 
SN
 
 
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Posted: #1875
BLKN  nice contribution on behalf of the novice, I am sure many appreciate your effort in simplicity
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