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Posted: #1826
 
 
                              Saturday, August 8th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1827
Okay, I have a theory on this topic, but first off I do want to apoligize for my unproffessional statements made earlier (only to those who it did not apply to).  My Theory is this in regards to SP,  it would seem that in our calculation we always assume a SP right?  well if the SP has no track record versus his opponent, then how can we base a formula on no starting point (with no starting point...there is no ending point right?).   Now as far as the RP and handicapping the games several days in advance..  This WILL NOT work,  since alot of teams operate on a rotation, when you assume several days in advance that you will always use your #1 & #2 RP right?  Does not work on several plateaus #1, the pitcher you are using may have pitched 1-2 the night before the game 2.  The other team may be using the opposite arm  3.  Injuries  (here is a hint to all those who don't know..."if a team utilizes a RP the night before the game for 0 innings then chances are VERY good he will be used as a RP the next day.  If you observe that a RP is being used with alot of Innings Pitched, then track him, since chances are he is the main go to RP."   These are only thoughts and idea's that I have adapted in utilize this thread as a second job (with a great income..   ONLY if detailed enough to adapt to the concept.  If additional information is required or comments then by all means PM me, and I will be willing to further elaborate on concepts and ideas.   Thank You for your time.
 
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Posted: #1828
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

Okay, I have a theory on this topic, but first off I do want to apoligize for my unproffessional statements made earlier (only to those who it did not apply to).  My Theory is this in regards to SP,  it would seem that in our calculation we always assume a SP right?  well if the SP has no track record versus his opponent, then how can we base a formula on no starting point (with no starting point...there is no ending point right?).   Now as far as the RP and handicapping the games several days in advance..  This WILL NOT work,  since alot of teams operate on a rotation, when you assume several days in advance that you will always use your #1 & #2 RP right?  Does not work on several plateaus #1, the pitcher you are using may have pitched 1-2 the night before the game 2.  The other team may be using the opposite arm  3.  Injuries  (here is a hint to all those who don't know..."if a team utilizes a RP the night before the game for 0 innings then chances are VERY good he will be used as a RP the next day.  If you observe that a RP is being used with alot of Innings Pitched, then track him, since chances are he is the main go to RP."   These are only thoughts and idea's that I have adapted in utilize this thread as a second job (with a great income..   ONLY if detailed enough to adapt to the concept.  If additional information is required or comments then by all means PM me, and I will be willing to further elaborate on concepts and ideas.   Thank You for your time.
, in addition is it better to use the Runs Created (RC) when calculating with BsR, or would you use the RC-Basic Formula.  I believe that the RC-Basic would be closer to offsett the BsR, since BsR will give you a closer number, but on the other hand the BsR will be off by as much as 20 runs on several games, so how can we offset the numbers to compensate for our final prediction?
 
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Posted: #1829
On a sidenote, and this hasn't worked too well for me the last couple of times, I'm penciling in today as 'dog day'.  All dogs that close between 120 and 200 are live.

One of these games is about to start.  I ran the lineups through the simple Markov calculator and got CIN 7.5 - SF 3.1.  Seems that Zito is given up a lot of walks against this lineup and Arroyo isn't returning the favor. Just curious how that matches up with the more elaborate BsR approach.
 
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Posted: #1830
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

Okay, I have a theory on this topic, but first off I do want to apoligize for my unproffessional statements made earlier (only to those who it did not apply to).  My Theory is this in regards to SP,  it would seem that in our calculation we always assume a SP right?  well if the SP has no track record versus his opponent, then how can we base a formula on no starting point (with no starting point...there is no ending point right?).   Now as far as the RP and handicapping the games several days in advance..  This WILL NOT work,  since alot of teams operate on a rotation, when you assume several days in advance that you will always use your #1 & #2 RP right?  Does not work on several plateaus #1, the pitcher you are using may have pitched 1-2 the night before the game 2.  The other team may be using the opposite arm  3.  Injuries  (here is a hint to all those who don't know..."if a team utilizes a RP the night before the game for 0 innings then chances are VERY good he will be used as a RP the next day.  If you observe that a RP is being used with alot of Innings Pitched, then track him, since chances are he is the main go to RP."   These are only thoughts and idea's that I have adapted in utilize this thread as a second job (with a great income..   ONLY if detailed enough to adapt to the concept.  If additional information is required or comments then by all means PM me, and I will be willing to further elaborate on concepts and ideas.   Thank You for your time.

 

There's no debate, a capper would dis-qualify/cut the game off his card. (minor league first starts, relief turn SP, in-activeP) leave it alone...........

SN

 

 
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Posted: #1831
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

On a sidenote, and this hasn't worked too well for me the last couple of times, I'm penciling in today as 'dog day'.  All dogs that close between 120 and 200 are live.

One of these games is about to start.  I ran the lineups through the simple Markov calculator and got CIN 7.5 - SF 3.1.  Seems that Zito is given up a lot of walks against this lineup and Arroyo isn't returning the favor. Just curious how that matches up with the more elaborate BsR approach.
Yes I agree since Zito's last few games have been reckless, and even though Cinn has a losing record, they have always had the ability to create runs.  The main thing about SF is there pitching staff, they tend t give up little if any runs, so if Cinn can create a 2-3 run lead, then chances are extremely well, that they will beat SF.  Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #1832
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 

There's no debate, a capper would dis-qualify/cut the game off his card. (minor league first starts, relief turn SP, in-activeP) leave it alone...........

SN

 

Most definitely, since like I have stated, the main person on any card is the SP, since he should cover 66% of the game.
 
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Posted: #1833
Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:

On a sidenote, and this hasn't worked too well for me the last couple of times, I'm penciling in today as 'dog day'.  All dogs that close between 120 and 200 are live.

One of these games is about to start.  I ran the lineups through the simple Markov calculator and got CIN 7.5 - SF 3.1.  Seems that Zito is given up a lot of walks against this lineup and Arroyo isn't returning the favor. Just curious how that matches up with the more elaborate BsR approach.

This game calculates a strong 'tilt' capped REDS win your assessment on the read is  on the money, thx

SN

 
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Posted: #1834
Toronto JUST WON 3-2 bOTTOM OF 10TH
 
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Posted: #1835

Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

, in addition is it better to use the Runs Created (RC) when calculating with BsR, or would you use the RC-Basic Formula.  I believe that the RC-Basic would be closer to offsett the BsR, since BsR will give you a closer number, but on the other hand the BsR will be off by as much as 20 runs on several games, so how can we offset the numbers to compensate for our final prediction?

This entire thread revolves around sabermetrics connected to BR/RC formula, each individual capper adds filters, and adopt's variables to his form; UNDERSTANDING how to read the equational stats produced in your behalf, by your own mind; this is definately not for a lazy capper, or a capper that cannot spend 6hrs a day in front of a screen..

SN

 
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Posted: #1836
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
 
                              Saturday, August 8th, 2009

Hi sports_Network,
I somehow dont see todays play? I have been following since last week..
Thank You all for your time and effort.
Good Luck to all
 
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Posted: #1837
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
 
                              Saturday, August 8th, 2009

Hi sports_Network,
I somehow dont see todays play? I have been following since last week..
Thank You all for your time and effort.
Good Luck to all
 
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Posted: #1838
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

This entire thread revolves around sabermetrics connected to BR/RC formula, each individual capper adds filters, and adopt's variables to his form; UNDERSTANDING how to read the equational stats produced in your behalf, by your own mind; this is definately not for a lazy capper, or a capper that cannot spend 6hrs a day in front of a screen..

SN

Most definitely since the RC/BC is more less the foundation for a true handicapper to build on, if used solely then chances are your outcome will not be close to what is could be, but if you build on this foundation, by inputing the correct ()+-/{} as well as BPF placed in the right areas, and * and or / the right inputs, then you should be able to eliminate 50% of the obsticles preventing you from making that correct choice right?  Also in regards to 'reading' your numbers...That is totally correct since you can have all the right numbers, but if you cannot understand what those numbers actually mean.   Then you are beating up the wrong tree and you will never be the best you can be.  This my friend is solid information
 
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Posted: #1839
Quote Originally Posted by Willnyc555:


Hi sports_Network,
I somehow dont see todays play? I have been following since last week..
Thank You all for your time and effort.
Good Luck to all
  Point of information, by reading the entire thread you should be able to calculate your own plays for the day right?  Don't rely on anyone for something that is apparently inportant to you today.  Good luck on your journey and take the time to apply all that has been said.   I have
 
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Posted: #1840
Quote Originally Posted by jasonr:



I can't buy into these numbers since the units risked aren't indicated before the games.  They could be bogus since they are posted after the game


Another one who wants US to make it Easy on him. Bottom Feeder at best.

Excuse me, but nobody here is your "handicapping bitch."
 
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Posted: #1841
Quote Originally Posted by sevenleighton:

Most definitely since the RC/BC is more less the foundation for a true handicapper to build on, if used solely then chances are your outcome will not be close to what is could be, but if you build on this foundation, by inputing the correct ()+-/{} as well as BPF placed in the right areas, and * and or / the right inputs, then you should be able to eliminate 50% of the obsticles preventing you from making that correct choice right?  Also in regards to 'reading' your numbers...That is totally correct since you can have all the right numbers, but if you cannot understand what those numbers actually mean.   Then you are beating up the wrong tree and you will never be the best you can be.  This my friend is solid information


Tango did an analysis on RC vs BsR...proving the better if the two.
 
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Posted: #1842
Excuse me..typo...Better OF the two
 
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Posted: #1843
I laid off on the early games and monitored if the dogs had any bark. None.  All favorites.

I'm past my cutoff date for MLB, but I will be curious to see the results for this system before and after the ASB (or before and after August 1st).  Motivations become stronger later in the season, and could easily move aside 'normal' numerical approaches.
 
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Posted: #1844
Quote Originally Posted by MeMyselfandEye:



Tango did an analysis on RC vs BsR...proving the better if the two.
Yes I agree Tango did in fact and that is where I gained the knowledge that with BsR you will come closer to the actual score, but you will be way off in game by 20+, and if you read the comparison between RC vrs RC-Basic then you will clearly see that for comparison purposes RC-Basic will give you a closer score, as Runs Created Runs Created tends to overestimate actual runs more so than does BsR, as evidenced by its ME of 6.52, as compared to 1.78 for BsR.

And also if you review the graph you will notice XRR has the highest MAE at 21.9 and SD at 16.85, its distribution appears more compressed than that of RC-Basic. The reason is that extreme values carry greater weight in the calculations and XRR was off by 40 or more runs on 27 of the teams, while RC-Basic did so just 22 times, but clearly not to be dis-respected, whatever formula works and you are the most comfortable with, great, me I strive and use the best one available that will bring me the best result in the end.   Good luck, and I hope this information may be of us to you
 
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Posted: #1845
In coclusion, I am not questioning the use of BsR, since that is a very important part of the formula, what I am arguing is the use of RC or RC-Basic as the second component
 
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Posted: #1846
The key is the unification procedure between BR to RC this is where the strategy of getting an accurate, and reliable read would come into focus, Tango, Smyth, and James have all consented to the fact that they feed off each other, and must be connected in formula form, thus: BR//RC, walked into; 'situational' handicapping These are 'tools' to simulate your projected outcome, the addition of filters, and sheparded variables would be the responsibility of the capper, who must innovate the connection between BR/RC to MLB wagering/handicaping (an important key ingredient that is mandatory in comprehension of concept....
 
SN
 
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Posted: #1847
 
 
 
                                              Sunday, August 9th, 2009
 
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Posted: #1848
Just a question- Why the non posting of the plays the last two days. Just because of the loss on friday or just no plays due to vacation. I know people have commented that we need to do the math ourselves but sports network would not have initially started posting his projections if he wanted us all to do the math ourselves. Just curious.
 
For those that question the unit assignment to plays, do not bite the hand that feeds you. SN could put any damn units he wanted on his plays/projections and they would be way plus EV so please do not question the man's integrity in regards to unit assignment.
 
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Posted: #1849
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

 
2-6 might need a three day vacation for the mind, works wonders.. keep it tight, the best to you always
 
SN


The mind needs a break sometimes.. he'll be back on Monday I believe.
 
 
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Posted: #1850
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



The mind needs a break sometimes..
I believe you are right, But maybe the man is giving us the opportunity to move on with the theory and allowing each and everyone of us to expand our knowledge and apply the theory in Our own way.  It is like when someone continues to give and give, picks, theory, knowledge to someone, then eventually we as humans tend to  expect or take advantage of this on a daily basis, in reality one most accept the knowledge, apply the knowledge in there own manner to either improve or try again.  SN once told me that no two handicappers are the same, and I agree, since the information and knowledge that I have gained, I have applied these theory to my skills, which consistently improves each day.  In conclusion I highly suggest that we as potential handicappers, take this time to apply what we have learned and if we fail, so be it, try again until you succeed at what you are doing.  As a professional (and I am not talking about 'handicapper' when it comes to finance or personal satisfaction,  I only rely on my own skills, not totally on what another human being perceives a prediction)
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