Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

Milkman,

I ran quickly through and found 16 losses in the AL in 2008 and 16 losses 2009.  Some teams were very solid while others werent.  I am going to go back through the data for running the chase both ways to determine which teams accounted for the losses.

Milkman,

what do you mean by their next similar series?

I have been working all day on another angle.  I will post it in another thread.  Looks pretty promising also.  Would have been very good in 2009, but haven't tested it for 2008 yet...

Okay guys since we have some time before our next play.  I looked back at the theoretical losses from 2008, 2009 to see if we had any habitual offenders.  Here is what I found

2008:

AL

Home : KC, CLE, TOR x2, NYY

Away:  Tex, DET   

2009:

Home:  MIN

Away:   DET, NYY      

NL 

2008: 

Home: COL*, StL, PIT x 2, MIL*, WAS

Away:  LAD, COL*, MIL*, WAS* , FLA   

2009:      

Home:   MIL*, HOU  

Away:   AZ, MIL*, CIN, PHI, FLA 

A few repeat offenders, primarily MIL who has accounted for two losses each year.  Four teams DET, NYY, MIL, FLA appeared as losses both seasons.  I backtested them into 2007 and the only one that would have posted a loss that year was NYY with one loss....  I guess my point is to use caution this season when these teams appear as plays.  I will try to point them out as we go along.

System record: 1-0-0

Plays for 4/12:

Series #2  (game 1)   1:05   kc @ DET

Series #3  (game 1) 7:05 TB @ bal

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

Game 1 wins= 1

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0 

I got DET at -195 and, so this could be a chance to use the -1.5 RL.  I put about 70% on ML and 30% on +110 -1.5 line.

TB at -143