Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

System record: 2-0-0

Plays for 4/13:

Series #2  (game 2)   1:05   kc @ DET -123

Series #3  (game 1 wins) TB

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 0

Game 3 wins = 0 

Okay to something more productive than complaining.

AL 2007                     120-7

Playing all teams greater than -150 on -1.5 RL = 118-9

added games = 11 (i.e. playing -150 on -1.5 RL will push series to a game 2 or 3 as opposed to winning game 1 or 2)

Game 1 wins = 71          (71-58, 55%)

Game 2 wins =  34         (34-24, 58.6%)

Game 3 wins = 15         (15-9, 62.5%)       120-91, 56.9%

System record: 3-0-0

Results for 4/13:

Series #2  (game 2 wins)  DET -123    

---thank you baseball gods for the huge 7th inning!

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

NL 2007

123-8

Game 1 = 86-45,65.6%

Game 2 = 27-18, 60%

Game 3 = 10-8, 55.5%

Combined 243-15

Yeah,

Baltimore is becoming great fade material.... as well as houston!

System record: 3-0-0

No Plays for 4/14:

Pending:

SF @ lad (4/16)

TB @ BOS (4/16) or CWS (4/20)

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

-- a little apprehensive about all the road plays as these have been slightly higher risk in the past

One thing I wrote a note to look at, but it had slipped my mind:

2009

AL           17 road series = 1 loss,      2 interleague losses

NL           17 road series = 1 loss,      1 interleague loss

2008

AL          13 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

NL          21 road series = 1 loss,     1 interleague loss

2007

AL          25 road series = 1 loss, 2 interleague losses

NL          8 road series = 0 losses,  0 interleague losses

** would recommend not playing IL games as add little value considering added losses.  There have been a consistent number of road series plays last three years with some added risk but likely still profitable overall.  Just wanted to point this out as these plays may increase risk some.

---2008 record based on opening lines (at pinnacle) to see if they are similar to the closing lines used in initially testing this should be up by the end of the night.

Sorry everyone I posted this in the wrong thread.  It was intended for my other system.  I have not found a difference in interleague plays for this system.  Sorry for any confusion

Bittersweet for me today milkman. Believe it or not, I was actually on HOU, NYM, and OAK today.  I even parlayed HOU and NYM I am absolutely shocked it hit!

System record: 3-0-0

Plays for 4/16:

***Okay guys not sure how many people are following this system but there are a couple of issues with the upcoming plays I want to point out to everyone.  There are two possible plays starting tomorrow.

Series #4 (Game 1) 7:10     TB @ bos -181

Series #5 (Game 1) 10:10    SF @ lad -145

Here are my concerns, with the opening lines this high there is a 20% chance of the home team sweeping the road team (based on last years results).  The TB/BOS series is a four game series which I would have skipped when backtesting as I didn't want to chase for four games.  I feel these teams will hit but we are all individuals and have to make decisions for ourselves.  I am going to offer to skip these series for those interested to the next series which are three games and will likely have better odds.

Series #4 alt. (Game 1) 4/20 TB @ cws

Series #5 alt  (Game 1) 4/19 SF @ sd

I am surprised the lines for tomorrow are so high as I feel these teams are more evenly matched.  I want everyone to be as informed as possible and make the plays as they feel best.  The games tomorrow may be higher risk/reward.  Please play what you feel most comfortable with.  I will post the standard and alternate plays over the next 4-6 days.  This was backtested based on closing lines so if these significantly drop overnight the sf at lad would have fit the backtested criteria.  BOL to everyone

Pending:

PHI @ atl (4/20)

FLA @ hou (4/20)--  fading HOU at home

cle @ MIN (4/20)---  fading CLE on road

TOR @ tb (4/23)

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

Game 1 wins= 2

Game 2 wins = 1

Game 3 wins = 0 

-- a little apprehensive about all the road plays as these have been slightly higher risk in the past

Milkman,

You have any leans on these series.  Not sure how I am going to play them since they are opposite plays in my two systems.  I am surprised these lines are this high which may add some value in playing the dogs???