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NBA overs

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Posted: #1

This is a 5 game straight marty chase on two different NBA "overs" I like to play. Play "A" is the most evenly matched game, PK-3; Play "B" is on the most lob-sided contest, spread >5. Starting bankroll for each play is 40U.


TUESDAY 11/28:

Play A: Suns/Bulls    o213    -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U

Play B: Bucks/Kings o196.5 -115 risking 1.2U to win 1U

 
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TUESDAY 11/28 results:

Play A: Suns/Bulls    o213    -110 loss -1.1U

YTD: -1.1U

ROI: -2.8%


Play B: Bucks/Kings o196.5 -115  winner +1U

YTD: +1U

ROI: +2.5%

 
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WEDNESDAY 11/29:

Play A: Heat/Knicks.    o206    -115 risking 2.4U to wn 2.1U

Play B: warriors/lakers o227.5 -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U
 
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Posted: #4
WEDNESDAY 11/29 results:

Play A: Heat/Knicks.    o206    -115   loss -2.4U

YTD: -3.5U

ROI: -8.8%


Play B: warriors/lakers o227.5 -110 winner +1U

YTD: +2U

ROI: +5%

 
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Posted: #5
THURSDAY 11/30:

Play A: Jazz/Clipps     o199    -110 risking 4.95U to win 4.5U

Play B: Bulls/Nuggs o209.5    -105 risking   1.1U to win    1U
 
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THURSDAY 11/30 results:

Play A: Jazz/Clipps     o199    -110 winner +4.5U

YTD: +1U

ROI: +2.5%


Play B: Bulls/Nuggs o209.5    -105  winner    +1U

YTD: +3U

ROI: +7.5%


FRIDAY 12/1:


Play A: Kings/Bulls     o195          -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U

Play B: Warriors/Magic o228.5     -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U


 
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FRIDAY 12/1 results:


Play A: Kings/Bulls     o195          winner+1U

YTD: +2U

ROI: +5%


Play B: Warriors/Magic o228.5     winner +1U

YTD: +4U

ROI: +10%

 
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Posted: #8
SATURDAY 12/2:

Play A: No Play
Play B: Kings/Bucs o199.5 -115  risking 1.2U to win 1U
 
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Posted: #9
SATURDAY 12/2 results:

Play A: No Play

YTD: +2U

ROI: +5%


Play B: Kings/Bucs o199.5 -115  winner +1U

YTD: +5U

ROI: +12.5%

 
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Posted: #10
SUNDAY 11/3:

Play A: Magic/Knicks       o213.5 -115 risking 1.2U to win 1U

Play B: T'wolves/Clipps   o213.5 -115 risking 1.2U to win 1U
 
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Posted: #11
SUNDAY 11/3 results:

Play A: Magic/Knicks       o213.5 -115 loss -1.2U

YTD: +0.8U

ROI: +2%



Play B: T'wolves/Clipps   o213.5 -115 winner +1U

YTD: +6U

ROI: +15%

 
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Posted: #12
MONDAY 12/4:

Play A: Nets/Hawks         o220 -115 risking 2.6U to win 2.2U

Play B: Suns/76ers          o228 -115 risking 1.2U to win 1U
 
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Posted: #13
nice system. The "B" plays r undefeated so far....have u backtested this system and seen if the "B"plays fare much better than the "A"plays? thanks for ur hard work!!
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by King Creole42:

nice system. The "B" plays r undefeated so far....have u backtested this system and seen if the "B"plays fare much better than the "A"plays? thanks for ur hard work!!

Thanks Creole, This system is not back-tested per se. I don't think the numbers would be reliable given line movements between opening and closing, and where they are when I place the wager. Having said that, this is the second NBA season that I am employing this strategy, since both plays turned a good profit on their inaugural run for me last season. Also, as you've pointed out, the "B" plays well outpaced the "A" plays just as they have so far this season.  

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by King Creole42:

nice system. The "B" plays r undefeated so far....have u backtested this system and seen if the "B"plays fare much better than the "A"plays? thanks for ur hard work!!

Nice job King.... of course the "B" loses after you mentioned this 
 
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Posted: #16
MONDAY 12/4 results: losers

Play A: Nets/Hawks         o220 -115 loss -2.6U

YTD: -1.8U

ROI:  -4.5%



Play B: Suns/76ers          o228 -115 loss -1.2U

YTD: +4.8U

ROI: +12%

 
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Posted: #17
TUESDAY 12/5:

Play A: (2-4) No Play
Play B: (6-1) Suns/Raptors o225.5 -110  risking 2.4U to win 2.2U
 
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TUESDAY 12/5 result:

Play A: (2-4) No Play

YTD: -1.8U

ROI:  -4.5%



Play B: (7-1) Suns/Raptors o225.5 -110  winner +2.2U

YTD: +7U

ROI: +17.5%

 
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Posted: #19
WEDNESDAY 12/6:

Play A: Knicks/Grizz         o196.5 -110 risking 5.3U to win 4.8U

Play B: Kings/Cavs           o209    -110 risking 1.1U to win   1U
 
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Posted: #20
WEDNESDAY 12/6 results: stinkers

Play A:(2-5) Knicks/Grizz         o196.5 -110 loss -5.3U

YTD: -7.1U

ROI:  -17.8%


Play B:(7-2) Kings/Cavs            o209    -110 loss -1.1U

YTD: +5.9U

ROI: +14.8%

 
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Posted: #21
THURSDAY 12/7:

Play A: No Play

Play B: Lakers/Sixers           o219.5    -110 risking 2.3U to win  2.1U
 
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Posted: #22
THURSDAY 12/7 result:

Play A: (2-5) No Play

YTD: -7.1U

ROI:  -17.8%



Play B:(7-3) Lakers/Sixers           o219.5    -110 loss -2.3U


YTD: +3.6U

ROI: +9%


 
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Posted: #23
FRIDAY 12/8:

Play A: Celts/Spurs         o197.5 -110 risking 11.1U to win 10.1U

Play B: Bulls/Hornets      o203    -110 risking  4.8U  to win   4.4U
 
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Posted: #24
FRIDAY 12/8 results: 

Play A: (3-5) Celts/Spurs         o197.5 -110 winner +10.1U

YTD: +3U
ROI: +7.5%

Play B: (8-3) Bulls/Hornets      o203    -110 winner +4.4U

YTD: +8U
ROI: +20%
 
 
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Posted: #25
SATURDAY 12/9:

Play A: Heat/Nets                o212.5 -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U

Play B: Rockets/Blazers      o217    -110 risking 1.1U to win 1U
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