NBA quarters chase

POR hits second quarter.

Unbelievably, two buzzer beaters essentially cost us in the first quarters.  I also wanted to make the point that running all the numbers and all things being equal we are starting off slanted at taking the home team.  Only in scenarios where we have strong evidence against the home team would we switch, like where we have a road team that is favored heavily over the home team and the numbers support the play.

ATL:

MIL

ATL has won the last 3 first qtrs against MIL rather easily, and these numbers were padded when bogut was healthy.  I would likely skip a series like this or maybe take a shot on ATL???

MIL hits in the 1st

ATL in second

OKC 1st and 2nd

We would be 4-0 today with no chases after halftime!

Todays matchups

BOS road

MIA Home

Shat guys I don't know what happened.  I think I forgot to hit submit on my post.  MIA has an adv in 1st qtr and has won 2/3 1st qtrs.  BOS has a higher 1st 2 percentage but taking in the first qtr adv for MIA, winning 2/3, and being the home team I would play MIA.  If it hits you can then start a chase on BOS for 3 qtrs depending how aggressive you want to be.

MIA

Remember the numbers I am posting are from the regular season which is why I initially was going to wait until next year reg season to post this info.  These plays may be more risky with the extra motivation of the playoffs.  I played MIA for the reasons listed above.  I did not start a chase with boston because the line was -2.5 and the heat have won 2/3 last 2nd qtrs.  It may very well hit but I didn't want to risk losing my win.  During the regular season I would be less concerned and would just let my labby lines pick it up over the next few days.  Lakers lost all the qtrs last night even though they had high reg season percentages, so if u started chasing them in that situation you would have lost more than you won with the thunder, although this is very rare.

CLE at CHI

CLE on road

CHI at home

--based on these numbers CLE would be the play as CLE has strong road numbers and CHI has poor first half numbers.  CLE has won 2/3 first qtrs.  The issue is that CHI won the first 3 qtrs last game. I have a feeling about CLE today, but I am also a cavs fan...  This is a situation where you would actually go against the home team based on the numbers, but based on the last game you may want to consider CHI.  I know I don't want to chase for 4 qtrs....  Once again these are regular season numbers obviously because if the cavs had to go til 4 last game their 3rd qtr cumulative would no longer be 100%

DAL at SA

DAL road

cumulative

by qtr

SA

--Dal has an advantage in 1st qtr, but SA is home team and has a cumulative adv for 1st 2 and has won 2/3 1st qtrs.  would play SA in this game

SA-1 1st qtr

Finally a shot at the end of the qtr gets a win instead of a loss!