NBA quarters chase

Unfortunately, I discovered this trend toward the end of basketball season and found that it drops off a bit for the end of the season and playoffs as teams start tanking and lines tighten up.

The basis of the chase is that the odds of a team losing all 4 qtrs in an nba game is less than 3%.  I run this as a 4 game labby and make my plays based on the line or team history.  I have stats for all the teams home and away.  I try to pick the team with the higher percentage of winning the first two quarters to start the chase.  I have tested this up to 1/3 of the opening line.  I am going to include the stats that I have on this and will put a sample of the numbers up for tomorrows nba games as examples as to how we would play this.

2009-2010

Lost all 4 qtrs at home  = 19/940 = 98.0%

13 teams lost as Home Dogs= 13/262  (95.0%), only 6 would likely lose all four with points added secondary to spread 6/252= 97.7 %, all 6 were 0 to 4.5           point dogs

13 teams lost all four from -4.5 to home dogs = 13/510 = 97.4%

n  0 to -4.5    = 3 losses out of 248=== 98.7%

n  Home Dogs= 13 out of 262== 95.0%

n  9 teams lost all 4 as away favorites (96.5%),  only 2 with a spread greater than -5,    2/107= 98.1%

n  0 to +4.5   7 losses out of 158 games (95.6%), same for road favorites 0 to -4.5 (95.6%)= no play either way.

5 teams lost favored by 5 or more=== 5/427 = 98.8%  (highest was -7)

----Home favorites of 5 or more won a quarter by more than 1/3 original spread in 13/427 games = 97.0%

----even to favorites 16/675 = 97.6%

50/261 Home dogs lost first two quarters = 19.1%

24/261 Home dogs lost first three quarters =  9.2%

540/675 (80%) Home favorites won on of 1^st two quarters by more than 1/3 orig spread

630/675 (93.3%) Home favorites won one of first 3 quarters “””””

Home Teams win by quarter (out of 938 games)

              1st                2nd             3rd            4th

win       52.2%          51.2%          53.3%         49.3%

tie        6.0%            5.1%             4.4%           4.8%

lose      41.8%          43.7%         42.3%           45.9%

4/24 Matchups

ORL road

cumulative qtrs:

1st-4th qtr:

Char  Home

cumulative qtrs:

qtr by qtr:

4/24 Matchup #2

LAL Road

Cumulative

by qtr

OKC Home

As you can see the thunder are beasts at home, especially in the second and 3rd qtrs.  They have not lost the first 3 qtrs this season.  This is a team I usually hammer when at home!

I want to point out that the examples I posted are as an illustration of how you would use this during the regular season and is only step 1 in capping these games. It does not mean I will be playing on these teams tonight. Just because CHA has won 63% of 1st quarters doesn't necessarily mean anything about ORL.  So I always use covers matchup features to look at the last 3 or 4 games.  Looking at ORL/CHA last few games you can see that ORL has been doing very well at beginning of games against them.  If you were betting on CHA the last 2 games you would have to chase until the 3rd and 4th qtrs respectively......

I guess my point is you always have to look back at the previous games also to see if it is inline with our numbers.

Rizz, saw this thread and thought maybe you'd be interested in another "system", I know some people run the other way when that word is brought up. This is NOT my finding, and the person who introduced it should get ALL credit for his work.

I followed it last 2 mos. of season.Next season, we will put it into play. It's a 6 game NBA halves chase.

Results: 125 - 1

Summary:

1st Play of series ......45 wins

2nd Play of series......45 wins

3rd Play of series.......20 wins

4th Play of series.......9 wins

5th Play of series ......3 wins

6thPlay of series  ......3 wins

Loss .....................1 (5play loss) missed by 1/2 pt. with a push in the Phily series back in Nov.

Yes, you have to have ice in them veins when it gets to a 5 or 6 game. Also needing a bankroll to sustain the wagers in play.

Backtested:

2008-09 ....127 series wins and 1 loss

2007-08....90  series wins and 2 losses

2006-07...108 series wins and 1 loss

2005-06....108 series and 1 loss

2004-05...99 series and 0 loss

2003-04...102 wins and 0 loss

Once again this is NOT my work, but next season with the credit given to the proper person we will post this Bad Dog!

Good luck to you on all your hard work!!!

kirby,

yes. you have to have a book with inrunning qtrs to do this system.  I should have mentioned that before.

If anyone is interested:

PHO road

cumulative:

by qtr:

POR Home

by qtr

PHO has won first qtr two out 3, including last game at POR.  Percentages favor POR.

thanks, rizz