Ive created a workbook in excel where I can click the name of any team in the NFL and match them up against any other team, using the systems' methods it projects a score.
Spreads/OUs covering by 7+ points will be an official pick.
Potential Picks (not official)
NOR/CAR O51.5
PHI/BUF O50.5
Buffalo +2.5
CIN/JAC U37.5
Cincinnati +1
Indianapolis -1
TEN/PIT U40
Tennessee +3
NYJ/NE O50
GB/ATL O52.5
Green Bay -5.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I didnt create this system and don't know if its any good, so I thought I would try it:
Ive created a workbook in excel where I can click the name of any team in the NFL and match them up against any other team, using the systems' methods it projects a score.
Spreads/OUs covering by 7+ points will be an official pick.
I think everything else was within 4 pts except for the Monday night game which 5.5 pts. I usually don't play totals but I might play these 5 today ...
I didn't check the sides but they might be worth checking into...
Thanks again, Gambller. Good Luck!
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I saw that article earlier and wanted to try it out. Great work G
I think everything else was within 4 pts except for the Monday night game which 5.5 pts. I usually don't play totals but I might play these 5 today ...
I didn't check the sides but they might be worth checking into...
I took it as they had to cover the spread and the 7 points, so like Indy would have to be 26 to be a bet, so I didn't bet Indy or Tenn. I didn't bet O/U's either just Buf, GB and Det
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I took it as they had to cover the spread and the 7 points, so like Indy would have to be 26 to be a bet, so I didn't bet Indy or Tenn. I didn't bet O/U's either just Buf, GB and Det
I take that you put this on a excel spread sheet. I have a spread sheet that predicts scores by yppt formula. I'm not up to speed on converting dates and time to activate my sheet. If you would like to swap sheets let me know. Mine also has S.O.S. built in. Doing it by hand is rough.
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I take that you put this on a excel spread sheet. I have a spread sheet that predicts scores by yppt formula. I'm not up to speed on converting dates and time to activate my sheet. If you would like to swap sheets let me know. Mine also has S.O.S. built in. Doing it by hand is rough.
i have a boring day at work coming up tomorrow. i'll run the figures for the 2010 season from week 5 onwards (the article said only use current season after 4 weeks).
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i have a boring day at work coming up tomorrow. i'll run the figures for the 2010 season from week 5 onwards (the article said only use current season after 4 weeks).
I'm working on the 2010 games now. Should have it done by some point tomorrow. Did a lot of manual data-entry work today to calculate it, but now that I have the framework down, it should be easier. Very very early results are good.
I started doing the calculations for week 5 onwards. There was a very interesting one that popped up quickly.
Green Bay was playing at Washington. The natural reaction by most of us would be simply: Green Bay clearly favored. Washington was a trash team last year (has been for years), and people were loving the Packers talent. The Packers were coming into the at a healthy 3-1 record, with their only loss being a 3-pt loss on Monday night at Chicago. Come on, that loss was no big deal, playing your division rival (the oldest rivalry in football) on Monday Night Football is tough. So really, GB was playing splendidly well.
Meanwhile, the Redskins were 2-2, having lost to the lowly Lions, as well as to the mediocore Texans. Their week 1 win was a strange game that they somehow beat Dallas in, on Sunday Night Football.
Obviously, the public would be all over Green Bay in this game. And sure enough, that was reflected in the line. Despite being on the road, Green Bay was a 3-point favorite.
Not according to the formula. The formula predicted that Washington should have been the favorite. And not just a slight favorite. A 6-point favorite. This is a stunning difference from what the point spread was.
And sure enough, the formula was more accurate than the point spread. Washington won the game 16-13. The formula was 3 points off the final score, but the point spread was 6 points off.
Upon looking at why the formula predicted Was -6, it seemed that the reason why was this: GB's wins were over fairly unimpressive teams (from a statistical standpoint), while WAS's wins were over statistically good teams.
I've only gone through 4 games in Week 5 so far (the first week that I'm tracking), and bets were made on 2 of the 4 games (Colts -7 as well). So far, in both games that a bad was made, we won. We'll see what happens moving forward.
I'll upload the Excel sheet when it's done, likely sometime tomorrow afternoon.
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I'm working on the 2010 games now. Should have it done by some point tomorrow. Did a lot of manual data-entry work today to calculate it, but now that I have the framework down, it should be easier. Very very early results are good.
I started doing the calculations for week 5 onwards. There was a very interesting one that popped up quickly.
Green Bay was playing at Washington. The natural reaction by most of us would be simply: Green Bay clearly favored. Washington was a trash team last year (has been for years), and people were loving the Packers talent. The Packers were coming into the at a healthy 3-1 record, with their only loss being a 3-pt loss on Monday night at Chicago. Come on, that loss was no big deal, playing your division rival (the oldest rivalry in football) on Monday Night Football is tough. So really, GB was playing splendidly well.
Meanwhile, the Redskins were 2-2, having lost to the lowly Lions, as well as to the mediocore Texans. Their week 1 win was a strange game that they somehow beat Dallas in, on Sunday Night Football.
Obviously, the public would be all over Green Bay in this game. And sure enough, that was reflected in the line. Despite being on the road, Green Bay was a 3-point favorite.
Not according to the formula. The formula predicted that Washington should have been the favorite. And not just a slight favorite. A 6-point favorite. This is a stunning difference from what the point spread was.
And sure enough, the formula was more accurate than the point spread. Washington won the game 16-13. The formula was 3 points off the final score, but the point spread was 6 points off.
Upon looking at why the formula predicted Was -6, it seemed that the reason why was this: GB's wins were over fairly unimpressive teams (from a statistical standpoint), while WAS's wins were over statistically good teams.
I've only gone through 4 games in Week 5 so far (the first week that I'm tracking), and bets were made on 2 of the 4 games (Colts -7 as well). So far, in both games that a bad was made, we won. We'll see what happens moving forward.
I'll upload the Excel sheet when it's done, likely sometime tomorrow afternoon.
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