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NFL Point Differential System

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Views: 5145
Posts: 33
 
Rookie
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Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 579
Posted: #26
great info hibore
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2006
Posts: 33
Posted: #27
Why am I getting
Green Bay: 22
Washington: 19
 
Green Bay
Offense: 26.5
Defense: 18.25
 
Washington
Offense: 18.25
Defense: 19.75
 
Green Bay's opponents
Offense: 19.19
Defense: 23.63
 
Washington's opponents
Offense: 22.00
Defense: 18.98
 
Green Bay efficiency
Offense: 1.12 (26.5/23.63)
Defense: 0.95 (18.25/19.19)
 
Washington efficiency
Offense: 0.96 (18.25/18.98)
Defense: 0.90 (19.75/19.00)
 
Green Bay overall efficiency: 1.01 ((1.12+0.90)/2)
Washington overall efficiency: 0.96 ((0.96+0.95)/2)
 
Green Bay projected score: 22 ((1.01*23.13)-1.5)
Washington projected score: 19 ((0.96*18.25)+1.5)
 
Please respond where our difference is or just post all the stats you got like I did so I know if my system is incorrect
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2006
Posts: 33
Posted: #28
To add to my previous post, this is the opponents of both Green Bay and Washington in depth:
 
Green Bay opponents (Offense/Defense)
Philadelphia: 23.75 (20/35/28/12)/19.75 (27/32/3/17)
Buffalo: 15.25 (10/10/24/17)/31.25 (15/34/38/38)
Chicago: 17.25 (19/27/20/3)/17.00 (14/20/17/17)
Detroit: 20.50 (14/32/10/26)/26.50 (19/35/24/28)
 
Washington opponents (Offense/Defense)
Dallas: 18.00 (7/20/27)/17.67 (13/27/13)
Houston: 27.00 (34/30/13/31)/25.50 (24/27/27/24)
St. Louis: 19.25 (13/14/30/20)/13.00 (17/16/16/3)
Philadelphia: 23.75 (20/35/28/12)/19.75 (27/32/3/17)
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 199
Posted: #29
You nailed it. I reran the numbers today and found the mistake in my formula for the WAS/GB game.

I've literally spent 15 hours working on this file so far. Realistically, it'll still take another 10-15 hours of work to finished.

https://www.fileswap.com/dl/pBMtDruz6K/pds.xlsx.html

There's the Excel file that needs to be completed. Let me know if you have any Qs.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2006
Posts: 33
Posted: #30
Detroit -4.5
Pit/ari u45
Oakland -3.5
Kc/oak o42.5
New Orleans 13.5
Ind/no o48.5
Baltimore -9
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 199
Posted: #31
Easier to say this in hindsight, but OAK should've been a no play. Boller is playing horrifically. The formula accounted for Campbell at QB, not KB. A dumb bet on my part at least.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2008
Posts: 71
Posted: #32
Gambller,  any ?  keep up the good work, nice read
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3643
Posted: #33

I have run this system for college and the NFL. However, I do not use overall stats. I limit it to road/home stats. Also, I limit it to ATS or sides. Last saturday, it was 7-3 ATS (70%) in the college game. Last sunday and monday, it was 7-13 ATS (54%) in the pros. Essentially, I use it as an adustment to Ion Soliu's system.

Today, the system is picking Toledo -8.50. Northern Illinois 41 Toledo 56 Toledo by 15.

 

 

 

 

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