Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.
Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.
For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.
I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.
Thanks and GL to all this season!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello and Happy Hockey Season!
Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.
Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.
For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.
I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.
For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.
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Thanks bro.
For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.
Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...
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Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...
Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.
Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).
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Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.
Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).
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