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NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems

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Posted: #26
Team Dif
Bos 2.910
Ari 0.691
Win 1.924
Tor 3.934
Tb 1.650
Ott 0.017
La 0.354
Fla 2.382
Nyi 0.055
Dal 0.354
Was 1.508


 
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Posts: 1033
Posted: #27
Results for 25 Oct

(-$2.06)
 
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Posted: #28
Plays for Oct 26

Boston 2.5* @ -116
Arizona 1.0* @ +155
Winnipeg 2.05* @ +153
Toronto 4.0* @ -152
Ottawa 1.0* @ -103
LA Kings 2.24* @ +109
Florida 2.66* @ -129
NYI 1.0* @ +115
Dallas 1.0* @ +111
Washington 1.48* @ -130

 
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Posted: #29
Team Dif
Veg 2.469
Win 1.138
Nj 4.339
Car 0.337
Chi 2.547
Dal 0.711

 
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Posts: 1033
Posted: #30
Results for 26 Oct

(-$2.902)


 
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Posted: #31
YTD = (-$2.57)

Plays for October 27th

Vegas 2.23* @ -120
Winnipeg 1.29* @ +180
New Joisy 3.78* @ -135
St Louis 1.0* @ +104
Chicago 2.44* @ -120
Dallas 1.0* @ +121


 
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Posted: #32
Team Dif
Buf 0.351
Ana 0.942
Bos 1.688
Nj 0.183
Fla 3.477
Tor 1.644
Nyr 1.594
Pit 0.544
Nas 0.764
Stl 0.273
Col 1.307
Was 0.545

 
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Posted: #33
Results for October 27th
 +$3.175

YTD = +$0.605

Early game 
Buffalo 1.0* @ +103

Back later with more picks after Saturday morning coffee 
 
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Posted: #34
More plays for the evening schedule

Tampa Bay 1.06* @ -152
Florida  3.1* @ -157
Toronto 2.01* @ -144
New Joisy 2.15* @ -147
NY Rangers 2.44* @ +133
Pittsburgh 1.3* @ -106
Columbus 1.0* @ +120
Colorado 1.64* @ +106

 
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Posted: #35
Team Dif
Ana 1.342
Pit 0.304
Was 1.669

 
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Posted: #36
Team Dif
Nyi 12.434
Ari 0.901
Bos 2.544
Ott 1.092
Fla 2.371
Stl 2.009
Dal 0.082
Tor 0.625

 
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Posted: #37
Team Dif
Nyr 0.908
Ari 0.602
Min 0.424

 
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Posted: #38
I don't understand the equation approach.  ARI is one of the worst Defense in the league, but you divide DET off by their defense gives the projected goals for DET less than they average and vs the worst defense in the league.

Seems you should multiply DET off * ARI def / average def on road.  i.e. DET should perform above their average, not below.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by mpg137:

I don't understand the equation approach.  ARI is one of the worst Defense in the league, but you divide DET off by their defense gives the projected goals for DET less than they average and vs the worst defense in the league.

Seems you should multiply DET off * ARI def / average def on road.  i.e. DET should perform above their average, not below.

The equation for Detroit is (Home Offense / Road Defense)*League Ave Home....(2.5/4.29) * 3.215=1.874
Opposite for Arizona....(2.71/3.25) * 2.966=2.473

Arizona "favored" at .599.  (My spreadsheet takes the decimals further on all equations..that's why this number difference from above).

Quoted from web site:
"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team. That would give you the predicted number of goals for the road team in this particular matchup. 
To find the home team’s predicted goals, do the same thing, just switch the teams where applicable."

Detroit's at home tonight
 
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Posted: #40
I wanted to use this thread to keep track all season of the numbers.....to be able to back track and see what plays could be made from this.  Early in the thread, I suggested looking at a difference of one full goal, as a start, to be a play.  Using that logic, none of the above would be a play (post 37).
 
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Posted: #41
I found another equation to predict goals on a different web site.  I'm going to set it up on my spreadsheet and add it below the current one.  It's based on medians, not averages.  Plus, there's a formula to give a percentage to win and to give a money line prediction.  Might as well post these numbers to track as well.

Google this:  Mathematical Based NHL Predictions
The first entry was the web site on my search
 
Prospect
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Posted: #42
"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage"

That's not what you are doing.  You are taking the average goals / game - not the offense percentage.    The offense percentage is teams goals / average goals.
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by mpg137:

"For example, you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage"That's not what you are doing.  You are taking the average goals / game - not the offense percentage.    The offense percentage is teams goals / average goals.

 

This web site has confused me...it doesn't give examples.  Since your post, I've been going through my formulas etc to see if I read the web site correctly in my calculations.

 

The paragraph before the one you quoted:

 

"Then you would check out the two teams in the matchup for which you are looking to bet on, and starting with the home team, you would take the number of goals they average on their own ice and divide it into the league average to figure out their percentage compared to the rest of the NHL. You do this for both the goals scored and against, for both the home and away teams."

 

I did forget a step, but you have it backwards...its League Average/Home Ice Average.

 

I'm not arguing, I just want to make sure I get this right.  The web site I found for post #41 has examples and I was doing the formuli for it now onto my spreadsheet.

 

Let me know what you think. 

 

It looks like Covers is switching over to the new format.  I was logged out under the old, wouldn't let melog in until I switched to the new format.

 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

   I did forget a step, but you have it backwards...its League Average/Home Ice Average.   I'm not arguing, I just want to make sure I get this right.  The web site I found for post #41 has examples and I was doing the formuli for it now onto my spreadsheet.   Let me know what you think.    It looks like Covers is switching over to the new format.  I was logged out under the old, wouldn't let melog in until I switched to the new format.

looking at the new web site in post #41 and comparing with the above, I have it backwards...it's team ave/league ave.  Mathematical word problems suck and it's been a long time since I had a high school test on math.

 

 
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Posted: #45

MPG, check me if I'm doing this right...For Phil away vs Chic

Phil ave 3.5 goals scored away....3.5 / 2.967 (league away ave goals) = 1.18

Chc ave 2.0 goals against home....2.0/2.967 = .674

1.18/.674=1.75....1.75*2.967 (league away ave goals) = 5.192

...you would take the number of goals they average on away and divide it into the league average to figure out their percentage compared to the rest of the NHL. You do this for both the goals scored and against...

 

... you would take the road team’s offensive percentage by the home team’s defensive percentage, and then multiply that number by the league average for goals scored by the away team. That would give you the predicted number of goals for the road team in this particular matchup. ...

Did I do this correctly,as this is what I'm doing...

 
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Posted: #46

Added new projections called GSGA2 from different web site using medians instead of averages (for league scoring).  I will reset GSGA in other thread to zero as I messed up a bit as you can tell from above.  Still waiting for MPG to reply current formulas are correct.  I will adjust if need.

GSGA

Phi 1.803

Pit 0.059

Nj 1.814

Tor 0.739

Sj 1.960

GSGA2

Chi 1.556

Edm 0.972

Nj 2.556

Tor 0.556

Sj 0.722

 
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Posted: #47

New format makes me not want to post...so much wasted space between lines. 

 
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Posted: #48
GSGA
Veg 0.104
Nyi 1.335
Nyr 1.494
Fla 2.604
Ott 1.673
Phi 0.614
Mon 0.737
Win 0.825
Pit 1.131
Col 2.088
Buf 0.240
Tor 1.363
GSGA2
Bos 0.556
Nyi 0.036
Tb 4.000
Fla 1.244
Det 0.917
Stl 3.019
Min 1.486
Win 0.810
Cal 0.556
Col 0.813
Buf 1.067
La 0.733

 
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Posted: #49
GSGA
Edm 0.528
Ana 1.496

GSGA2
Nj 3.981
Ana 1.034

 
 
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Posted: #50
GSGA
Ott 1.262
Clb 0.554
Phi 1.064
Was 1.396
Fla 1.363
Tor 1.361
Win 0.379
Buf 2.683
Chi 0.341
Ari 0.423
Pit 0.794
La 1.537
Ana 1.190


GSGA2
Ott 0.296
Tb 0.778
Phi 2.176
Bos 0.452
Fla 1.845
Stl 1.397
Win 2.708
Dal 2.125
Min 1.352
Car 2.315
Van 1.067
La 2.111
Ana 0.019

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