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NHL Betting System: Goal Scored And Allowed Systems

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Posted: #176
GSGA
Nyr 0.631
Car 0.103
Stl 0.360
Chi 0.287
Veg 1.520
GSGA2 Nyr 0.931 Car 0.351 Stl 0.605 Chi 0.531 Veg 1.770

 
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Posted: #177
GSGA
Phi 0.930
Cal 0.038
Dal 0.710
Tb 0.950
Clb 0.236
Fla 0.051
Nj 0.208
Car 0.251
Was 1.154
Bos 0.383
Ana 0.894
La 0.522
GSGA2 Phi 0.602 Cal 0.320 Dal 0.946 Tb 0.657 Clb 0.461 Fla 0.347 Nj 0.509 Det 0.015 Was 1.393 Bos 0.101 Ana 0.629 La 0.741


 
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Posted: #178
GSGA
Bos 2.025
Nas 0.438
Nyr 0.069
Ana 0.181
Min 0.939
Van 0.449
GSGA2
Bos 1.716
Nas 0.697
Nyr 0.349
Ana 0.426
Min 1.159
Van 0.183

 
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Posted: #179

First, thank you for posting and all your hard work.  Just a quick question.... Does a goalie change affect the numbers?   Just found your thread and will be following. Thanks.  

 
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Posted: #180
GSGA
Clb 0.357
Tb 0.347
Phi 0.471
Col 1.238
La 0.045
GSGA2
Clb 0.615
Tb 0.656
Phi 0.185
Col 1.496
La 0.315

 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by budhachi:

First, thank you for posting and all your hard work.  Just a quick question.... Does a goalie change affect the numbers?   Just found your thread and will be following. Thanks.  


No...the formula is strictly goals for and against.  Like MLB against a top 20 pitcher in Sagarin ratings, up to you to decide on to play or not.

GSGA 430 - 294 $49.32 
GSGA2 431 - 291 $38.77 

^ is record to date if you played every team who had a better number than their opponent (using Cover's closing lines)


GSGA is using averages, GSGA2 uses the median.

https://www.sportsbookinsiders.com/betting-systems/702-575-nhl-betting-system-goal-averages
 
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Posted: #182
https://www.thegreek.com/sports-betting/hockey/nhl-betting-how-to-predict-hockey-games-using-a-mathematical-based-system

This site has use of medians, but I can only get my excel spreadsheet to state median "whole" numbers...3 instead of 2.87 as a median, while I know how to compute averages to any decimal.
 
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Posted: #183

Thank you for your time  I appreciate it. 

 
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Posted: #184
GSGA5:
Win Min Nas Tor
GSGA5 Fade (Play):
Ott(Was)
Last 5 Play:
Win Nas Min
Last 5 Fade (Play):
Ott(Was)
Last 10 Play:
Win Tor
Last 10 Fade (Play):
System //    ML W/L   // //    ML $$$   // //    February   // //    February   //
L5 Play //    117 - 107   // ($15.59) //    27 - 24   // $(6.87)
L5 Fade //    111 - 101   // ($23.18) //    20 - 22   // $(14.31)
L10 Play //    105 - 97   // ($22.78) //    30 - 21   // $(1.60)
L10 Fade //    113 - 94   // ($11.23) //    29 - 22   // $0.50 
GSGA5 Play //    73 - 61   // ($10.45) //    29 - 21   // $(4.58)
GSGA5 Fade //    73 - 52   // ($4.92) //    29 - 20   // $(2.92)
Progs/Regres //    40 - 29   // ($6.25) //    7 - 7   // $(4.89)
Dogs //    147 - 253   // ($55.61) //    26 - 66   // $(28.49)
Rev Line //    88 - 101   // ($2.93) //    17 - 26   // $(7.49)
GSGA //    152 - 106   // ($5.90) //    39 - 21   // $1.73 
GSGA2 //    185 - 115   // $8.84 //    43 - 24   // $(0.55)
Chase RL //    123 - 122   // ($8.92) //    38 - 26   // $10.21 
Chase RL Fade //    122 - 123   // ($5.47) //    26 - 38   // $(13.21)

 
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Posted: #185
Shoot, wrong one.

GSGA
Pit 0.951
Was 1.747
Bos 1.142
Tor 0.725
Win 0.670
Min 0.693
Dal 0.333
Veg 0.742
Sj 0.509
GSGA2
Pit 1.272
Was 1.988
Bos 1.401
Tor 0.370
Win 0.924
Min 0.913
Dal 0.597
Veg 0.997
Sj 0.787

 
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Posted: #186
GSGA
Tb 1.589
Mon 0.164
Stl 0.227
Col 0.617
Nyr 0.025
GSGA2
Tb 1.879
Mon 0.471
Stl 0.485
Col 0.883
Van 0.278

 
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Posted: #187
GSGA
Bos 0.987
Phi 0.307
Nj 0.141
Tb 0.134
Nas 1.261
Min 0.545
Sj 0.782
La 0.609
GSGA2
Bos 1.258
Phi 0.601
Fla 0.215
Dal 0.156
Nas 0.934
Min 0.242
Sj 1.062
La 0.856

 
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Posted: #188
GSGA
Nyi 1.134
Fla 0.579
Nj 0.424
Win 1.237
Cal 0.187
Col 1.570
Veg 2.187
Nas 1.318
Ana 0.377
GSGA2
Nyi 1.465
Fla 0.893
Nj 0.124
Win 1.532
Cal 0.495
Col 1.874
Veg 2.457
Nas 0.993
Ana 0.656

 
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Posted: #189
GSGA
Tb 0.320
Dal 0.673
La 0.785
Pit 1.221
Bos 1.837
Was 0.288
Ari 0.160
Nyr 0.237
GSGA2
Tb 0.633
Dal 0.937
La 1.046
Pit 1.571
Bos 2.115
Was 0.586
Ari 0.434
Edm 0.105

 
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Posted: #190
GSGA
Phi 0.448
Col 0.525
Ana 0.385
Veg 0.352
Win 0.484
Min 1.053
Sj 1.071
GSGA2
Phi 0.096
Col 0.804
Ana 0.674
Veg 0.023
Win 0.203
Min 1.318
Sj 1.371

 
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Posted: #191
Since Feb 17th, I have wagered on every team on GSGA posted (mostly...if Dan Rules had a different team on his parlay, I played his team).  My goal is to gain one unit for each day played.

Assuming San Jose loses, through 15 days of wagering, I am right at my goal of a unit a day.  Not bad, considering the first day I lost 7.5 units.

For the uninitiated, I would adjust up if I have lost on a day or keep it at a unit if I'm at or above a unit/day.  I just add a quarter or half unit to each play to adjust.

Year to Date:

GSGA 463 - 309 $60.26 
GSGA2 462 - 308 $42.51 

^^^ Does not include the Winnipeg and Minnesota wins and the San Jose game (currently losing 2-0 in 2nd period) .  Dollar figure is as if wagering $1.00 as a unit....based on Cover's closing lines.
 
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Posted: #192
GSGA
Pit 0.514
Tor 1.470
Dal 1.617
Edm 0.168
Nyi 0.521
GSGA2
Pit 0.827
Tor 1.142
Dal 1.885
Edm 0.493
Nyi 0.153

 
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Posted: #193
GSGA
Nj 0.883
Win 0.287
Bos 1.013
Veg 0.157
Tb 1.233
Min 1.301
Nas 0.866
Chi 0.962
Ana 0.627
GSGA2
Nj 1.161
Nyr 0.025
Bos 1.294
Clb 0.132
Tb 1.562
Min 1.580
Nas 1.157
Chi 1.257
Ana 0.950

 
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Posted: #194
GSGA
Cal 1.151
Phi 0.107
Van 0.216
GSGA2
Cal 0.834
Phi 0.440
Van 0.553

 
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Posted: #195
GSGA
Clb 0.839
Bos 0.540
Win 0.309
Ott 0.169
Tb 1.393
Fla 1.205
Veg 0.750
Nas 0.831
Chi 0.635
Nyi 0.489
La 0.882
Sj 0.557
GSGA2
Clb 1.107
Bos 0.849
Win 0.007
Ott 0.510
Tb 1.739
Fla 1.530
Veg 0.426
Nas 1.118
Chi 0.924
Nyi 0.109
La 1.179
Sj 0.848

 
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Posted: #196
GSGA
Clb 0.396
Cal 0.971
Dal 0.652
Min 0.188
GSGA2
Clb 0.669
Cal 0.596
Dal 0.927
Van 0.178

 
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Posted: #197
GSGA
Bos 1.283
Win 0.569
Tb 2.100
Veg 1.489
Col 1.952
Sj 1.254
La 0.436
Fla 0.848
Tor 0.801
Nas 1.012
Min 0.273
GSGA2
Bos 1.590
Win 0.258
Tb 2.427
Veg 1.141
Col 2.247
Sj 1.578
La 0.688
Fla 1.191
Tor 1.132
Nas 1.336
Edm 0.098

 
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Posted: #198
GSGA
Bos 0.470
Nyi 0.191
Pit 0.853
Van 0.411
GSGA2
Bos 0.170
Cal 0.152
Pit 1.155
Van 0.117

 
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Posted: #199
GSGA
Clb 1.220
Nyr 0.139
Was 0.451
Veg 0.624
Fla 1.256
Ana 0.189
Sj 0.712
La 0.519
GSGA2
Clb 1.476
Nyr 0.464
Was 0.733
Veg 0.283
Fla 1.571
Ana 0.470
Sj 1.013
La 0.789

 
 
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Posted: #200
Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:


Step 3: figure out the number of predicted goals

Example using same game:

St Louis: .981 / .921 * 2.7 = 2.876, rounded to 2.9

Anaheim: 1.000 / .900 * 3.0 = 3.333, rounded to 3.3


These numbers aren't posted.

Quote Originally Posted by BlueStar57:

Example using teams from tonight's games - St Louis at Anaheim:

St Louis GF: 2.65 / 2.7 = .981

St Louis GA: 2.79 / 3.1 = .900

Anaheim GF: 3 / 3 = 1.000

Anaheim GA: 2.5 / 2.8 = .921

My numbers:

St Louis GF: 2.6764 / 2.7842 = .9613

St Louis GA: 2.7941 / 3.1093 = .8986

Anaheim GF: 3.0303 / 3.1093 = .9745

Anaheim GA: 2.6364 / 2.7842 = .9469


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