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NHL Opening Game Favorite 94-1 in 2009

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Posted: #476
Any plays for Friday...I haven't checked
 
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Posted: #477
PIT definitely a play today. WAS opened at -150 now at -145, borderline.  I'm keeping my money away from WAS even if it ends up being official, they lost 6 out of last 7 and only one of those was even close.
 
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Posted: #478
All the more they get hot again...

Pitt also falls into RealityCheck RPI system.... So depite the juice I am in
 
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Posted: #479

WAS closed at -138 so even though they ended up winning, it won't count towards the system.

PIT -252 A

record now at:

16-0

A games = 9-7

B games = 5-2

C games = 2-0

losses =

 
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Posted: #480
I actually did some testing on this system back to the lockout year and came out with some improved results with a few tweaks.  If you drop the initial line required to start a streak to -120 and allow a streak to start in the middle of a longer home stand that did not meet the criteria in game #1, but then is listed at -140 or better and still has at least 3 games are left on that home stand you end up with an increased return after applying a few basic filters.

Since the 05-06 season you would have

A - 356-205
B - 114-91
C - 61-30

Wins - 531 - 88.5/yr
ABC Loss - 30 - 5/yr

Last night ended up being a 4-0 night with Pittsburgh, Washington, Florida, & Dallas


 
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Posted: #481
PHX TOMORROW MAYBE?
 
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Posted: #482
That's interesting pistol589.  I'm wondering what the filters are that you're using?   I was wondering about double-dipping in series that come in on the A game but still have at least 3 home games remaining as well, but never bothered back checking.  Your system has about a 95% win rate over a pretty big sample size, that's decent.  I wonder if you explained your system in detail, maybe we could all brainstorm some additional tweeks that would get the win rate even higher at the expense of a little less action.  Like, how many of your losses came from lowering the starting line to -120 as opposed to how many came from starting in the middle of a homestand.  If you start a thread I'd be interested in following.
 
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Posted: #483
PHO at -140 right now, probably not a play.
 
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Posted: #484
Rrrrrrrrrrrrgh
 
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Posted: #485
The original system back tested to:
A - 319-179
B - 99-80
C- 48-32

Adding the additional starts in the middle where the 1st game didn't transfer gets you 85 more wins and 5 more ABC losses

Dropping the 1st game line to -120 or higher and then adding filters for not playing home stands that start in the first two games of the season, not betting on teams that have already had an ABC loss during the year, and not betting on home stands directly leading up to, stretching over, or directly out of the olympic break takes away 65 wins and eliminates 7 ABC losses.
 
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Posted: #486
Right now my record for the year with this system is

A - 15-11
B - 8-3
C - 2-1

The only loss being when Florida lost three shootouts in a row.

I am playing on Phoenix tonight
 
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Posted: #487
The reason I didn't go back further with the system is after the lockout is when they went to shootouts and got away from ties. Any data before that would be under different rules
 
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Posted: #488
 
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Posted: #489
Ana     NO  PLAY TODAY!
 
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Posted: #490
MIN (-155) would be a pick today as they are starting a 2nd set of 3 home games today. Right?
 
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Posted: #491
I don't think so. Minny was not on the list.....

Buff is notgonna make it today either
 
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Posted: #492

Shoot, there was a play today but I missed it too, hope some of the rest of you were able to play it at least.

VAN -202 A 

Doesn't look like like any more plays for a couple days at least.

 
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Posted: #493
U should post the dec series up
 
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Posted: #494

DECEMBER SERIES

  • 12/1 SJ -200        WINNER
  • 12/3 STL ( -125 np)
  • 12/6 CAL, NYI
  • 12/7 BUF
  • 12/8 CLB
  • 12/10 NAS
  • 12/13 MON, FLA
  • 12/14 OTT
  • 12/15 SJ, WIN
  • 12/17 COL, TOR
  • 12/19 VAN, DAL
  • 12/21 CHI, CAR
  • 12/22 NYR
  • 12/27 FLA, TB
  • 12/29 DAL, ANA
 
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Posted: #495
 THX and GL
 
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Posted: #496
Spout I just started a thread with both of my hockey systems that I will be posting the picks on if you want to follow.
 
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Posted: #497

DECEMBER SERIES

  • 12/1 SJ -200        WINNER
  • 12/3 STL ( -125 np)
  • 12/6 CAL, NYI (NP-122, NP-109)
  • 12/7 BUF (+102 NP)
  • 12/8 CLB (+105 NP)
  • 12/10 NAS
  • 12/13 MON, FLA
  • 12/14 OTT
  • 12/15 SJ, WIN
  • 12/17 COL, TOR
  • 12/19 VAN, DAL
  • 12/21 CHI, CAR
  • 12/22 NYR
  • 12/27 FLA, TB
  • 12/29 DAL, ANA
[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #498

That's awesome glefkb01, thanks.  I haven't really been able to pay too close of attention the last week or so, luckily it looks like I only missed one play, SJ on Dec. 1.  Hey pistol, great I will follow your systems with interest.  The more of us keep trying to figure out ways to win consistently, the better.  I think it's impossible to come up with a perfect system, but it is possible to come up with systems that will make you money in the long run with good money management.

 
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Posted: #499
[Quote: Originally Posted by glefkb01]

DECEMBER SERIES

  • 12/1 SJ -200        WINNER
  • 12/3 STL ( -125 np but lost)
  • 12/6 CAL (-122 np but won), NYI (-109 np but won)
  • 12/7 BUF (+102 np but lost)
  • 12/8 CLB (-104 np but lost)
  • 12/10 NAS (-159 WINNER)
  • 12/13 MON (-157 *****, FLA -140 ******)
  • 12/14 OTT
  • 12/15 SJ, WIN
  • 12/17 COL, TOR
  • 12/19 VAN, DAL
  • 12/21 CHI, CAR
  • 12/22 NYR
  • 12/27 FLA, TB
  • 12/29 DAL, ANA

MONTREAL is a play and FLORIDA maybe   I am playing  it anyway because NJ is on a B2B...

 
 
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Posted: #500
MTL is at -157 still, and FLO now at -160 on covers, they're both looking like plays. 
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