So we have played enough games, and Im sick of seeing dogs winning, and not being on them.
It is no secret that dogs hit regularly in the great sport of ice hockey. Being able to pick dogs at a decent rate in my opinion is the holy grail of sports investing, not only for bragging rights to say you picked that +200 winning dog, but also for the bankroll.
Ideally we would want to hit dogs at 50% but can probably hit lower and still turn a profit.
Carrying on from realitycheck1s dog trials, I thought Id start this thread on a basic level and we can see what we can come up with.
To start with we can look at +money teams that have an RPI higher than their opponent, and as we move along we can introduce filters if need be (most probably).
I don't recommend playing anything listed in here, I won't be making a play all season, but am interested to see if we can come up with something.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So we have played enough games, and Im sick of seeing dogs winning, and not being on them.
It is no secret that dogs hit regularly in the great sport of ice hockey. Being able to pick dogs at a decent rate in my opinion is the holy grail of sports investing, not only for bragging rights to say you picked that +200 winning dog, but also for the bankroll.
Ideally we would want to hit dogs at 50% but can probably hit lower and still turn a profit.
Carrying on from realitycheck1s dog trials, I thought Id start this thread on a basic level and we can see what we can come up with.
To start with we can look at +money teams that have an RPI higher than their opponent, and as we move along we can introduce filters if need be (most probably).
I don't recommend playing anything listed in here, I won't be making a play all season, but am interested to see if we can come up with something.
Tomorrow's possible card, using ESPN RPI (is there one on covers? would much prefer use that)
Florida @ New Jersey
Minnesota @ Ottawa (line not out yet so Minny may not be dog)
Nashville @ Dallas
Toronto @ Colorado
Vancouver @ San Jose
I did notice they were all away teams, my theory is away teams get put as a further outsider due to the general publics belief in "home ice advantage". I don't really have any stats to back this up but I would say their odds would increase by +10 maybe even more just because they are playing on ice that says the other teams name on it. I may be completely wrong on this however.
I understand selecting dogs based on the fact that they are higher in the RPI standings is probably flawed, but this is the starting point, and look forward to some constructive input and other thought processes.
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Tomorrow's possible card, using ESPN RPI (is there one on covers? would much prefer use that)
Florida @ New Jersey
Minnesota @ Ottawa (line not out yet so Minny may not be dog)
Nashville @ Dallas
Toronto @ Colorado
Vancouver @ San Jose
I did notice they were all away teams, my theory is away teams get put as a further outsider due to the general publics belief in "home ice advantage". I don't really have any stats to back this up but I would say their odds would increase by +10 maybe even more just because they are playing on ice that says the other teams name on it. I may be completely wrong on this however.
I understand selecting dogs based on the fact that they are higher in the RPI standings is probably flawed, but this is the starting point, and look forward to some constructive input and other thought processes.
I like the idea of taking away dogs for better value... often the away team is not even a true dog.
I want to take 1 dog a day (to compliment my one fave a day on reg or pl -1.5).. the RPI offers a good starting base to choose a 'better' team.
I think recent form is important to add in... will be interesting to see if the losing RPI dogs have losing form, indifferent or good form.
We have all season to put something together.. surely we can learn from each loss and build some filters. Need to break down each loss and look for possible reasons why they lost.
Play on standard lab line with a win % over 45 at plus money will be nice.
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Yeah nice work..
I like the idea of taking away dogs for better value... often the away team is not even a true dog.
I want to take 1 dog a day (to compliment my one fave a day on reg or pl -1.5).. the RPI offers a good starting base to choose a 'better' team.
I think recent form is important to add in... will be interesting to see if the losing RPI dogs have losing form, indifferent or good form.
We have all season to put something together.. surely we can learn from each loss and build some filters. Need to break down each loss and look for possible reasons why they lost.
Play on standard lab line with a win % over 45 at plus money will be nice.
Got a dog play for tomorrow. Both cellar dwellers, but according to some of my numbers that I use as filters, I like Buffalo, and want to get in early in case they become favourite.
7th Nov
Buffalo $2.10 (+110)
Will port in the morning on more plays if available
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Got a dog play for tomorrow. Both cellar dwellers, but according to some of my numbers that I use as filters, I like Buffalo, and want to get in early in case they become favourite.
7th Nov
Buffalo $2.10 (+110)
Will port in the morning on more plays if available
Started off as a social weekend, with an unfortunate event taking place close to home. Last thing I have felt like doing is looking at hockey. Will hopefully do a quick backtest over the days missed to see how it could have faired. Will probably start posting again by next week.
Peace out, and remember life is precious.
Good luck to all.
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Sorry yall.
Started off as a social weekend, with an unfortunate event taking place close to home. Last thing I have felt like doing is looking at hockey. Will hopefully do a quick backtest over the days missed to see how it could have faired. Will probably start posting again by next week.
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