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NHL Totals system

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Posted: #126
If you have 2007 excel or better, go to:

post #58 and download the NHL spreadsheet.  From this spreadsheet, you can download years worth of info...it's how I was able to get this year's backtest done quickly.  DeGen is awesome.

With the 2011/2012 season, with 15 teams done, the unfiltered season is down 50 units.  Some teams do really well and gone on streaks that we tail, and some just go on streaks of 7+ opposite of what we're playing.

I think the way we're playing as Dan started is the best for now.  I'm gonna back to my MLB backtest and come back to this after I'm done.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #127
You think the labby is best way to play this for now? Seems like if martingale is down 50 units, the lines will be quite heavy for labby unless you apply the right #s to the fresh lines. 
 
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Posted: #128
I think I'm gonna track how well a team does in this system....how often a team wins for us.  These teams will clear more lines and we can add to the labby lines to these teams from bad teams.
 
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Posted: #129
Here's the current percentages, not including tonight, of how well a team does vs O/U on each spread.

NY Rangers 6 8 42.86% 3 1 75.00%
Ottawa 6 0 100.00% 10 5 66.67%
Philadelphia 1 2 33.33% 10 4 71.43%
Phoenix 5 1 83.33% 6 8 42.86%
Pittsburgh 1 0 100.00% 11 6 64.71%
San Jose 2 2 50.00% 8 8 50.00%
St. Louis 4 0 100.00% 9 5 64.29%
Tampa Bay 1 1 50.00% 10 8 55.56%
Toronto 1 4 20.00% 8 7 53.33%
Vancouver 1 2 33.33% 11 5 68.75%
Washington 0 0 10 11 47.62%
Winnipeg 0 1 0.00% 12 8 60.00%


Hope this comes out well enough to read.
 
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Posted: #130
7111097710 8549757
14 33.33%
3 78.57%
9 52.63%
6 60.00%
6 53.85%
8 46.67%
8 55.56%
8 12 40.00%
6 57.14%
2 71.43%
1 80.00%
3 75.00%
2 77.78%
2 71.43%
12 36.84%








 
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Posted: #131
Couldn't do it.  Click on link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ainr1eDtdk5ZdG5qNVdxN1VBa2RVWHh4MUY4WEhBTEE&usp=sharing
 
Prospect
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Posted: #132
Hows it going buckeye, any future improvements? I have not bet all week. Poker has been going very well though. Anything you following panning out? 
 
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Posted: #133
I'm still playing it, doing fairly well.  I'm looking at tweaking it as far as the percentages of how often a team does vs each spread and O/U, and shift labby numbers off of that.  Plus, I started doing the Under 6/6.5 yesterday.  High juice but favorable numbers.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

I'm still playing it, doing fairly well.  I'm looking at tweaking it as far as the percentages of how often a team does vs each spread and O/U, and shift labby numbers off of that.  Plus, I started doing the Under 6/6.5 yesterday.  High juice but favorable numbers.

What is the juice at 6 and 6.5 roughly? My book does not offer other lines. In the future next season I will have to look at getting a book that does those lines so I can play this system. Just going to wait and see how your back test turns out before playing it. When you said it was down 50 units and I seen CHI with like 6 straight overs it scared me a little. Will be hard to do a filtered back test. 
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:


What is the juice at 6 and 6.5 roughly? My book does not offer other lines. In the future next season I will have to look at getting a book that does those lines so I can play this system. Just going to wait and see how your back test turns out before playing it. When you said it was down 50 units and I seen CHI with like 6 straight overs it scared me a little. Will be hard to do a filtered back test. 
My regular book doesn't have them either, I had to open a 5dimes account to do it.  If you play this as a straight chase, it looks to lose, but doing it as Dan does, it wins.
The juice on 6/6.5 is around-180 to almost -300.  However the win rate is about 65 to 70 percentage.  
I made an automated spreadsheet that gives me per team how well they do for each play.  I'm using that as a tool for wager size.  Example, if Phoenix has a W/R ratio of 37.5% playing under 5.5 (it does), and they lose...I'm not going to chase Phoenix..I'll put their loss on a Carolina play as they are under 5.5 @ 78.5%.

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #136
Anymore testing done on this chase buckeye? Think labby is the only way to do this and just keep shifting the numbers around? 
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