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Official (?) RPI 2013 system

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Prospect
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Posted: #601
TEX and CIN today (8/23/13). And I'm still playing this system through September just like I did last year. Teams that are fighting for wild card are not laying down in September while the bad teams are retooling for next year. The juice does seem to be higher this year though. I believe the books are trying to tune the money lines to counteract the different baseball systems that they know work. I'm also wondering if the high juice series may make the underdog a play for one win.
 
Captain
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Posted: #602
Very suspicious the system had this bad of a year. Vegas is on to us lol
 
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Posted: #603

Friday results: Texas wins on the A game. Cincy loses on A game, B game Saturday.

Record: 100-7

A: 65-43

B: 24-18

C: 11-7

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #604
Vegas has nothing to do with the system having a poor year. But Vegas is making it more expensive to lose a 3 game chase. Also with these higher money lines, laying the plays is more difficult because Vegas has wagering limits on games. You have to go to multiple locations to make max plays.
 
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Posted: #605
Most places won't blink if you bet to win a $1000 on a team. If younare betting more than that, then congrats!
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #606
Aug13 WL record 19-24 = 44%. Shockingly bad. I have figured out the algorithm used to compute the MLB RPI. So now I just need to create a database of a former year's games and I hope I'd be able to predict the games for that year. A good off-season exercise to see if the RPI system done for, or was 2013 just an abnormally bad year.
 
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Posted: #607
Quote Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Vegas has nothing to do with the system having a poor year. But Vegas is making it more expensive to lose a 3 game chase. Also with these higher money lines, laying the plays is more difficult because Vegas has wagering limits on games. You have to go to multiple locations to make max plays.

average ML with this system over the past 3 years: 
  May-134
  Jun-144
  Jul-163
  Aug-177

As the season progresses favorites get more expensive.

 
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Posted: #608

Quote Originally Posted by fulkgl:

Aug13 WL record 19-24 = 44%. Shockingly bad. I have figured out the algorithm used to compute the MLB RPI. So now I just need to create a database of a former year's games and I hope I'd be able to predict the games for that year. A good off-season exercise to see if the RPI system done for, or was 2013 just an abnormally bad year.

You cracked the code for the secret ESPN RPI numbers? Well done.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #609

fulkgl,

so favorites get more expensive as the season progresses but our RPI differential actually goes down after the all-star game.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #610

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?

 
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Posted: #611
Quote Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?


Yes, but risking $22895 to win $1000 seems stupid to me. I would rather valet cars part time for 3 weeks to make that money if I needed it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #612

NoSoLucky,

I agree with your risk assessment. This chase system is not meant to be used for a static win amount. It works if you just collect small amounts based on the money line risk for each bet. That way when you lose a few series, your not wiped out. So you can make money with this system but you cannot make a living with this system alone.

 
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Posted: #613
Love the discussion.
 
Captain
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Posted: #614
Quote Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Danrules24,

To win a $1000

Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then

Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then

Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.

I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?

Talking some big numbers here, much higher than my bankroll. I go a LOT less than that on the RPI system. I know people say you should never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play, so I try to figure what that would be on a C game if I lost the A and B game at -200 each and C is -200.  I try to have that C game bet be less than 5% or so of my bankroll. Not sure if that is right or wrong but it makes 7 system losses a little more tolerable as I didn't get wiped out.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Captain
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Posted: #615

Saturday results:  Cincy wins on B game.

Record: 101-7

A: 65-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #616
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Talking some big numbers here, much higher than my bankroll. I go a LOT less than that on the RPI system. I know people say you should never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play, so I try to figure what that would be on a C game if I lost the A and B game at -200 each and C is -200.  I try to have that C game bet be less than 5% or so of my bankroll. Not sure if that is right or wrong but it makes 7 system losses a little more tolerable as I didn't get wiped out.

I was just giving you an example of what it could cost to win $1000 a game. your formula is very good for this system. Mine is similar except that I try to figure the "B" and "C" money lines by the "A" game money line and the probable starters for the "B" and "C" games. My main objective is the same as yours; to not have the bankroll allocated for this system wiped out by a poor season. Also, with proper money management, a good season takes care of itself.

 
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Posted: #617

Monday: We have LAD on the A game.

Record: 101-7

A: 65-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posted: #618
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

You cracked the code for the secret ESPN RPI numbers? Well done.



going to share?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #619
Quote Originally Posted by parlay100:



going to share?

yes. busy right now.
 
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Posted: #620

Monday results:  LAD win on the A game.

Record: 102-7

A: 66-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1847
Posted: #621
lookin forward to your next play
 
Prospect
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Posted: #622
Quote Originally Posted by fulkgl:


yes. busy right now.


You da man!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #623
i see tb and pit today as the last 2 2013 plays.
 
Captain
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Posted: #624

Tuesday plays: Pitt and Tampa on the A game. Last two official plays of the season. Will post unofficial plays through September.

Record: 102-7

A: 66-43

B: 25-18

C: 11-7

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
 
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Posts: 1818
Posted: #625
How did the unofficial do last year?

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