Post All-Star Home System

Friday we have double dip A games on Boston and Washington. 

Friday results:

Boston and Wash both win on double dip A game. Both go to another double dip A game Saturday.

Double dip record: 19-0

Since tracking: 112-0

• A:  10-9
• B:  5-4   
• C: 1-3
• D:  2-1
• E:  1-0

Dodgers heading to a final game on post All-Star system. 

Saturday results:

Boston wins and Wash loses on double dip A game. Boston is done. Wash has double dip B game Sunday. 7 games remain.

Double dip record: 20-0

Since tracking: 113-0

• A:  11-10
• B:  5-4 (Was pending)  
• C: 1-3
• D:  2-1
• E:  1-0

Dodgers become second loss on system since 1999. While I maintain the record I keep is for six games, I've also advised never go beyond 3 or 4 games (still would have been big loss).  Nevertheless, you can make nice money on this system even if you play just the first two games.  It is what it is and we me move on.

No mention of only playing 3-4 games, or only the first two in your covers article. Pretty misleading.

No offense intended sorry, I was just referring to the covers article. It talks about chasing for 6 games yet the author only chases for 2 or 3 now then takes the loss.

Sunday results:

Washington wins on double dip B game. 6 games left so double dip A game Tuesday.

Double dip record: 21-0

Since tracking: 114-0

• A:  11-10
• B:  6-4 
• C: 1-3
• D:  2-1
• E:  1-0

Updated through September 10

"The record does stand for itself" doesn't mean much from a betting perspective because it's not a count of units.

Yes the 583 wins equals 583 units won, however those 2 losses does not indicate the amount of units lost.

With regards to the recent Dodgers 6 game chase loss, here's what that single loss equates to (Note: using the Covers closing line):

Game 1 (Sept 4th -170): -1.7 units
Game 2 (Sept 5th -150): -4.05 units
Game 3 (Sept 6th -183): -12.35 units
Game 4 (Sept 7th -320): -61.12 units
Game 5 (Sept 8th -220): -176.48 units
Game 6 (Sept 9th -240): -616.08 units

Total: -871.78 units

So in the grand scheme of things, anyone playing this system according to how it's drawn up is down a ton considering I only calculated the one recent loss. I think people should be made aware of this as I agree with 'Sabbathen' it's a very misleading record you are tracking in terms of 'a good system'.

If the whole point of this Forum is to help each other win, the right thing to do would be to close this thread and re-start with your 2 or 3 games chase system rather than referencing some 6-game chase which is not only not profitable, but also not what you are even playing yourself. Or continue it, but track units alongside the record.

Nuscas, Your numbers make sense if someone did a strict Martingale chase all the way through. Many people have commented on the different ways they play this system regarding their bankroll. Some do labby lines, some play the run line on anything over -180, others break it down to 3 two game chases. 

I'm in between what Danrules24 is saying and what Nuscas/Sabbathen are saying.  In following this thread, there are conversations quite often about how people manage their money in different ways to make sure they're never risking a ton of money.  So it has been discussed many times that people fold their losses from 3 straight losses into a new series or that people never risk more than X dollars on a game.  So strictly looking at how a Martingale budget would have you down big isn't necessarily accurate.  That being said, if we're hard pressed to find anyone on the thread that follows the 6 game chase, why is the 583-2 record relevant?  The 583-2 record strictly says that 2 teams ever have lost a 6 game homestand (of teams that qualify).  If nobody here is chasing for 6 games, why are we discussing that record?  Wouldn't a record for the first 2 or 3 games be much more relevant if that's all people are chasing?  CKP always posts how many Game 1 wins and Game 2 wins and etc. for the current season, but I'd like to see that for the entire history of this system if this system isn't designed to go for a 6 game chase.  Saying "this team will win one of the next 6 games" seems to only be relevant if someone is chasing them for 6 games.  If nobody is chasing that team for 6 games who cares if they win game 4 or 5 or 6 when they've already lost you for that series.

Without tracking the odds of each play, it's hard to prove it's profitable. On sheer strike rate alone, playing a 2 game chase only on the money line looks like it could be profitable.

Did some quick back testing just for this year so far, using oddsportal which takes the average closing odds of 50+ books.

Seems a lot like handicapping rather than a system to me.

Washington loses on double dip A game, B game Wednesday.

Double dip record: 21-0

Since tracking: 114-0

• A:  11-10
• B:  6-4 
• C: 1-3
• D:  2-1
• E:  1-0

Astros on Game 1 of post All-Star system Friday

Thursday, Washington wins on double dip C game and is done. 

Updated

Double dip record: 22-0

Since tracking: 115-0

• A:  11-11
• B:  6-5 
• C:  2-3
• D:  2-1
• E:  1-0

Saturday we have Houston on double dip A game. They have 8 games left.

Updated through September 16