Post All-Star System

I run a few variations of a 6-game homestand system where I chase home teams to win at least 1 game.  I use different filters to weed out bad teams so I've done very well this season.  There is another variation I use starting after the All-Star break where you play teams who are only at least 10 games over .500.  Tracking back to 1999, it's unbeaten.  See, the results below.

                        GM 1   GM 2  GM 3  GM 4  GM 5   GM 6

2009 - 26-0  -     13       10       2        1

2008 - 30-0  -     21         7       2

2007 - 32-0  -     21         5       4        1         1

2006   28-0  -     16        8        4

2005   32-0  -    15       12        4                           1

2004   21-0        9        11        1

2003   36-0      25          5        5                           1

2002   41-0      24        12        4        1

2001   45-0      22        19        3                            1

2000   33-0      17        11        3         2

1999   36-0      28          6        1                            1

TOTALS 360-0  212   105       32        6                   4      1

As you can see most of the wins come within the first two games.  Using a martingale system which I use, this becomes quite expensive when it goes to a third game or beyond, but the record speaks for itself.  

You also have to be cognizant of different things.  Last season, the Red Sox already had clinched a wild card berth and opened a 6-game homestand in the final week. They rolled out a minor league lineup for the most part and reached a fourth game.  That made them a no play for me.

Also, if you roll out the same system for teams 10-games over while opening at least a 6-game road trip, the record is 367-3 dating to 1999 with the last loss in 2003.   32 of those wins came in Games 4, 5 and 6.  A little more risky, but the juice isn't as high.

There will be 10 teams in play this season after having 6 in 2009.

If anyone is interested, I'll post my plays here daily.

C

Nice ..I may ride this with you, did you also try testing this on the Run Line to maybe keep the juice down ?..

I would have to go back and get the teams from 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005. I only started playing the system last season.   Just jotted down the teams from previous years on pape which I no longer have.  Can tell you that last year's teams were Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees. 

A web site called retrosheet.org is great. Has standings from each day going back like 100 years.  Only thing I don't like is that it's tricky to navigate.

Quote Originally Posted by jonnymega:

I agree, RL is probably necessary for most.

I did a forecast using -180 for all levels:

clicky

scary after level 3

Not doubt that it gets pricey if not using the run line, but the stats are what they are.  I will admit if you were playing a team like the Yankees and they reach Game 4 you would have to make an adjustment. 

Neisly,

             Here are the teams from some previous years. Don't have time to run the numbers this afternoon.  Thanks for your help.

2008

Cubs
Cards
Red Sox
Rays
White Sox
Twins
Angels

2007

Brewers
Padres
Red Sox
Tigers
Indians
Angels
Mariners

2006

Mets
Red Sox
Yankees
Blue Jays
Tigers
White Sox

2005
Nationals
Braves
Cardinals
Red Sox
White Sox
Twins
Angels

If you follow the system you can make money.  The biggest thing is *trusting* it.   And after a year, I still sometimes fail to trust it after a few losses.  

I use this same system on a seemingly daily basis for about 20 teams and have had great success.  I weed out bad teams like the Pirates, Mariners, Indians. Orioles .. etc.  It's been extremely successful for me.  If I do decide to play a bad team,  I may take the Pirates if I see they've reached a 5th game because then it's only a 2-game chase.  I have numbers for those if anyone is interested.   

As I've stated, the biggest problem I sometimes have is sticking to the system once a few losses occur.  And some teams will reach a 3rd of 4th game.  

Forgot to post the teams for this season:

Yanks, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Braves, Padres (I really don't trust them), Dodgers and Rockies.

If you decide to follow along, good luck!

C

Just checked 2008 and 2007 .. adding one more filter in, being that if the line is -140 or less you play the ML, any thing more than -140 you play  the RL , and there is still no losses,technically, playing strictly Run line you woulld have had a  6 game chase loss.. with 4 straight 1 run wins in 2007 with MiIkwuakee.. however 2 of those wins were at -118 and -138 .. so adding in that filter this system is still perfect..with few deep chases.. will do 06 and 05 a bit later.. looks good CKP..

Thanks for doing the research.  If there are ways to improve the system, I'm always looking for that.  After all, it's about making money.

C

Giants also were one of the teams last season.

No other parameters.  Has to be at least a 6-game homestand. So, homestands longer count.  Play starting on the first game.  Once a win happens, that's it.

Next teams up and who they play:

Braves  - July  15-18      -- Brewers
              July  20-22      -- Padres

Yankees - July  16-18      -- Rays
                 July  20-22      -- Angels

While the research done by Neilsy looks good and I will incorporate it, I will play both the ML and RL.  Here are my plays for today:

Braves -190  -   142.50  to win 75    - Listed pitcher Jurrjens

Braves RL    -    20  to win 23   

Other Home System I use

Cards  -155   -  62 to win 40   listed pitcher Carpenter
Twins  -115    - 51 to win 45
Cubs   -130      45 to win 35