Power Rating System ($1000 to $100,000 in 36 months)

thanks guys, for the comments.... feel free to keep them coming.. right now ill be out of the thread for several hours... im hitting the gym and need to visit my store for a few hours..

Mondays update and card are posted above, someone drag it forward later, if it gets buried too deeply.

an early nba play for tuesday is posted, feel free to use that as you see fit.

ill be back this evening, to see how things are going..

Thinker

Just moving this to this page for those that didn't get it yet

ok its monday, i have a few things to say but lets do the update first.

Beginning Balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current Balance on oct 25 2010: $1838 (new project high)

(thats great, im running where i need to be mid Jan)

Power Ratings Program: 114-108 (+$838)

TOP plays: 14-13 (+$376) (52%)

ok lets look at todays card and then go into a few things.

plays for monday oct 25

223. Columbus (+1.10) $35 to win $39

224. PHX (+1.20) $35 to win $42

225. Kings (+1.00) $35 to win $35

I would be perfect for this, my record keeping from my MLB threads with my spreadsheets speaks for itself and all would agree. I'm about 7-10 days away from having the time I would require tho, cuz like you, when I'm seriously involved in my sports investing it is a 7 days a week job. I'd submit my resume with references but it's all under My Space. My friends list are my references, lol.

For your question about the NBA.. I'd have to first ask - is your NBA Program completely different than how your NFL Program works? Cuz it's having trouble with the Spreads in the NFL, do you anticipate there being similar issues with NBA Spreads?

If not, and the Program for the 2 sports are completely independant, then you could go with Spreads for NBA. When you're dealing with Favorites there should NEVER be a case where you take a ML over a certain number. You can determine that number to be whatever you want, say nothing over -150 for example.

Remember tho, the strength of your selections have been in the Program's ability to pick Dogs, meaning you don't have to hit 50% to still show a profit. If you start playing Fav ML's, you'll have to start hitting at a higher %.

Like someone else mentioned above, I would play Dog Spreads to start and closely track the ML %. If the Program highly recommends a BIG Dog some night, you can easily put a lil sprinkle on a +500 ML without worrying about it losing.

Good Luck

Cheers                                                                         

In regards to the NBA, I agree with what most have said here

Cold-track it for about 2-3 weeks.  Get a decent amount of games under the system, then compare the results to ML wagering vs betting on the spread

We can then decide which is more logical and profitable

I also really like the idea that we split our bets, slightly more than half on the spread and slightly less than half on the ML.  That sounds like it would be the most profitable system

But before we even do that, we need to cold track the numbers first

JM system for NBA for me

Thinker

NFL has been brutal to us the last 2 weeks, but off the top of my head were within 1 score in just about every game, mabye with the exception of one game, so it could be just a run of where the ball didn't bounce our way. GB could have easily blown it last night and we would gotten blanked again, but that game went in our favor so if I were you, I would continue to track the NFL plays. I also think the College Football should track well for us now that you have a good data sample for the year.

As a side note, I have seen some bold cappers when they think they might get a big upset they will split their "20*" out to 15* on the line and 5* on the ML. If they hit that 5* on a +400 dog, it is of course a sweet win.

I would not play the ML on any NBA games. I have never really seen anyone do this. The goal is to show a profit over the long run and if the program can call 55% winners, we have that profit. It does concern me that it doesn't sound like you've ever testing this program against the NBA? Otherwise you would have some knowledge of results. But it also sounds like you have a program that predicts a winner by X points and you're trying to decide what to do with those predictions when that team is favored by Y points. IMO you need a full season to see what happens for each absolute difference in the real line and your predicted line. If the Heat are 10 point favorites and your program says they should be 20 point favs, then we lay the big line at -100  and hope for the blowout. A win is a win and a loss is a loss when everything is -110.

So if we think College Football can work, why can't college basketball work starting about the middle of January after all the prelim games are in place. Or for that matter, about Feb. 1 when everyone has played a couple weeks of conference games?

Just some random thoughts while I wait for MNF to start...

Thanks for posting!

just got in guys.. thx for comments and suggestions....

i posted earlier that im already on phx +7.5 tomorrow night,,, the program also likes miami -1.... ill post tomorrow, if im going to play the heat...

some guys are tracking the nba, as to which is better spread or ML.... i think 2 weeks will tell us alot..

so record PHX (ML) for the tracking as well as +7.5 for the spread but only track Miami for the spread... if they move to a dog tomorrow, then they could be tracked for ML...

more tomorrow, im bushed tonight..

Thinker

thinker I know this is a repeat of a question I asked earlier --however it is a similar scenario that you are asking about the nba - would it be more profitable to bet hockey dogs to win in regulation as the odds increase by about .4 and it seems to me (without doing any research) that the favourite is more likely to win playin 4 on 4 in o/t

for example colunbus was + 150 to win in reg so instead of winning $39 would win $52.50

while phoenix would have been a loser as soon as it went to ot ..but lost anyways

so if we win 1 out of 3? (no research) on the ml

but if only 1 of 5 go to o/t -- so 4 wins would pay .4 more each I think we would profit more this way

and la wins in shootout well done thinker

still think its something  to discuss

swahili: the simple answer is no... OT and shootouts MUST be included....

program did like the giants tonight, i mentioned that in first post today...

looks like we took 2 of the 3 nhl games tonight, cant argue with that...

Thinker

NBA as a league is too shady in my opinion to get a good read on in a computerized system. But what do i know. Just seems like a lot of fishy stuff goes on there to trust it.

I agree with erbatiz, don't clutter up the effort with too many inputs. There is enough action and profit going on with just the MLB and NHL.

If you add NCAA B-Ball, NBA B-ball, NFL, and NCAA FB, that really starts to get out of control in my opinion. It seems like it is contrary to being disciplined like the thread states at the opening...

ok guys, here comes the update for tuesday oct 26

Beginning Balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current Balance on oct 26 2010: $1877 (New project high)

Power Ratings Program: 116-109 (+$877)

TOP plays: 14-13 (+$376)

here are the plays for tuesday

226. Fla (+1.35) $35 to win $47

227. Buffalo (+1.10) $35 to win $39

for those following only the Power Ratings Program, that is a complete card for tuesday.

here are the TOP plays for tuesday.

Miami +1 (-1.10) $110 to win $100

Phoenix +7.5 (-1.10) $110 to win $100

couple of notes: its going to be very stromy here today.. i may lose power and be offline for some time today... those with my email can give me a holler if they need me...

i have decided to play every NBA game that my program selects for $100... i will do this for 2 weeks and then we can have a discussion. i have several people tracking the nba, to determine the best way for us to play this... a $100 bet for me currently is what you may call a 1% bet... everyone can decide for themselves what to do with the nba plays.... we will have a meeting on nov 8th and discuss things...  i did reduce to phx bet from $200 to $100, just want to note that... the nba plays will not be part of the Power Ratings Program for at least 2 weeks, i will list all the plays under the heading of TOP plays... i really cant make it any simplier than that.....

no additions today of any kind..

Thinker

Thanks a lot TheThinker for what you're providing here.

I think playing ML dogs in certain situations like you do (whatever your method is) and having a strict Money Management is the way to go.

So keep the good work and be sure we're a lot here to appreciate your passion for betting sports.  Take care and keep going.

thanks guys, i beleive we are there with baseball and hockey.... all that is left is sorting out what to do with football and basketball.. several of us are tracking the nba and we are going to discuss things on nov 8th....

until then, ill listen to my computer program and hope to survive...

Thinker