RL System

Question

Hey guys,

Been lurking here for a while now and figured it was time I join in on the fun. I found this system over at the Rx....

Must be home team
Must be favored by at least -140
Must have won 2 out of 3

You chase it for 3 games on the money line.

I have made a few adjustments and will be playing this on the RL instead of the ML, and I have also done away with the parameter of must have won 2 out of last 3 as this seems to eliminate more wins as it does loses. I will also be using the labourchere on this with separate lines for the A,B, and C bets.

The first game starts tonight with Oakland.

(A)10-10-10-10

Oakland RL +135 20/27

(B)10-10-10-10

(C)10-10-10-10

MCSI · Answer

Hey guys,

Been lurking here for a while now and figured it was time I join in on the fun. I found this system over at the Rx....

Must be home team
Must be favored by at least -140
Must have won 2 out of 3

You chase it for 3 games on the money line.

I have made a few adjustments and will be playing this on the RL instead of the ML, and I have also done away with the parameter of must have won 2 out of last 3 as this seems to eliminate more wins as it does loses. I will also be using the labourchere on this with separate lines for the A,B, and C bets.

The first game starts tonight with Oakland.

(A)10-10-10-10

Oakland RL +135 20/27

(B)10-10-10-10

(C)10-10-10-10

therizz · Answer

Have you backtested this and if so what kind of numbers did you get.  I am running a similar system but it doesn&#x27;t eliminate road team plays.  We have been doing pretty well so far but don&#x27;t necessarily play the runline.  Interested in any past numbers you have.  Good luck.

MILKMAN0923 · Answer

looks and sounds very similar rizz

MCSI · Answer

(A)x-10-10-xCubs -185    37/20Odds for Cubs RL isn&#x27;t listed for some reason. Have to get to work so I just play this game on the ML. Back later with tonights plays.

MCSI · Answer

Something came up last night and was unable to get the plays posted.
After wins with Oakland on Thursday and the Cubs yesterday, that cleared the first line. I'm going to clear 2 lines before I bump up the units. So last nights games were starting on a new 10-10-10-10 (A) line. The odds I got on last nights games were...

STL RL (EV)      20/20 = Loss
PHI RL (-130)     26/20 = Win
LAD RL (+130) 20/26 = Win
NYY RL (-110)    22/20 = No Action
BOS RL (+110)    20/20 = No Action
SEA RL (+115)    20/23 = Win

That was +49.00 so that clears out the 2nd line of 10-10-10-10.
My new set of lines are now
(A)15-15-15-15
(B)15-15-15-15
(C)15-15-15-15

Todays plays are 2 (B) games...

(B)15-15-15-15

STL RL (+175)   30/52.50
BOS RL (+150) 30/45

Since the Yankess technically covered the RL before the game was called and is a series win, I decided not to play that.(although I wish I would have).

PatrickBateman · Answer

Like what you are onto here

MCSI · Answer

Rizz,I just back tested last years results. For the AL I got a total of 113-16. For the NL I came up with 64-11, but on the NL I was using the parameter of team must have won 2 out of last 3 which eliminated a lot more wins than it did loses. So I am now going back and re-back testing the NL without that parameter. I will let you know the new NL numbers when I get finished if you are interested. BOL

therizz · Answer

Definitely could be profitable using labby lines. I wouldn't play it with a straight chase as those losses would wipe out your wins...

You may want to check out my thread on opening game favorites. I used -150 as a number (closing lines) and -145 (opening lines) and got pretty good numbers. I ran it on all teams but the majority were home teams and I think I included the number of away series that were played in my stats. We could test this with your filter but would likely end up just eliminating plays as there were not many losses. Let me see if I can figure this out based on my numbers in that post and I will try to post it here for you.

therizz · Answer

Overall record was 246-7 for 2009.  34 of these series were away series which gave us 2 of the 7 losses.&#xD;&#xA;Playing just home teams = 212-5&#xD;&#xA;not sure how many wins/losses dropping the number to 140 would add but may be worth exploring as 150 was randomly selected by me.  Will be interested to see what you find out.

MCSI · Answer

Ok Rizz, finally finished the NL.

So taking the parameters of home team favored by -140 in first game of a 3 game series the RL comes in like this

AL 113-16
NL 115-29

Total 228-45

I know 45 loses are a lot but considering a lot of these plays will be + odds, and using the labourchere, I think it could be profitable. I will track it here to find out anyways. BOL

MCSI · Answer

Well after a good start, todays plays were a downer.

So far system is 5-0 with 2 C bets pending for tomorrow.

Today's plays lost $60, so I'm going to divide that by 3 and spread $20 to each of my lines. New lines now look like this..

(A)15-15-15-15-20
(B)15-15-15-15-20
(C)15-15-15-15-20

Plays for 4/18

(C)15-15-15-15-20

BOS RL (+150) 35/52.50

STL RL (-110) 38.50/35

I like the STL bet, not too crazy about BOS.

BOL to everyone!

therizz · Answer

shouldnt bos be a B bet as the first game pushed???  This is also a four game series.

MCSI · Answer

When I did my back testing I only did it for 3 games even in a 4 game series, I just didn&#x27;t want to chase any more than 3 games. I didn&#x27;t realize that this was a 4 game series, so since I did get a push in the first game, I could play tomorrows game as the C bet. Thanks for the heads up.

MCSI · Answer

Split on today&#x27;s games. Picked up the win on the C bet on STL. Lost on the BOS play. Since this was a 4 game series and I got a push or a no action on the first game, im going to play this tomorrow as the C bet.Plays for Monday 4/19(A)15-15-15-15-20LAA RL (&#x2B;125)    35/43.75SEA RL (&#x2B;135)    35/47.25(B)15-15-15-15-15-20-35 (Put the $35 loss from the BOS play on this line)(C)X-15-15-15-XBOS RL (&#x2B;130)  30/39Series Record is 6-0 with the BOS play pending. &#x2B;$36.00(&#x2B;1.8 units)

therizz · Answer

BOL, hopefully BOS will wake up today.  Very early start in that game.

MCSI · Answer

Boston gave us our first series loss, but we ended the night with 2 good wins with LAA and SEA.

The wins with LAA and SEA clear the (A) line.

The (B) line is....(B)15-15-15-15-20-35

The (C) line is....(C)x-15-15-15-30

Since the (A) line was cleared out, I'm taking the 20, and 35 from the (B) line and the 30 from the (C) line to make the (A) line.

Confused yet?

(A)20-30-35

(B)15-15-15-15

(C)x-15-15-15

Plays for 4/20

(A)20-30-35

ATL RL (+125) 55/68.75
MIN RL (+135) 55/74.25

(B)15-15-15-15

(C)X-15-15-15

*By the time I put my bet in on LAA last night the odds went from (+125) down to (+120). So I won 42.00 and not 43.75. (Just want to make sure the numbers I post on here match my spreadsheet so I don't confuse myself).

Series record is 8-1. +95.25(+4.7 units)

MCSI · Answer

PLAY FOR 4/21(A)20-30-35(B)15-15-15-15 ATL ML (&#x2B;127) 30/38.10(C)X-15-15-15

Snappa · Answer

Hey,MCSI. You were 1&amp;1 last night and still had a positive outcome. I like it.

MCSI · Answer

Thanks Snappa..Thats why I decided to try this system out on the RL with most of the plays being at &#x2B;odds. I&#x27;m hoping that with the &#x2B;odds and the labourchere that this will be profitable.....Time will tell.

MCSI · Answer

Play for 4/21(A)20-30-35(B)15-15-15-15-30(C)x-15-15-15ATL RL (&#x2B;145)   30/43.50

sean38 · Answer

Do you have the past data on the W/L by Game 1, Game 2 and game 3 on the RL?

MCSI · Answer

Series Record 9-2  &#x2B;54.50(&#x2B;2.7 units)(A)20-30-35HOU RL (&#x2B;125)   55/68.75SF RL (&#x2B;135)      55/74.25TB RL (-125)       68.75/55BOS RL (-1.10)   60.50/55OAK RL (&#x2B;130)   55/71.50(B)15-15-15-15-15-30(C)15-15-15-30

MCSI · Answer

Plays 4/24(A)20-30-35-39(B)15-15-15-15-30TB RL (&#x2B;140)     45/63HOU RL (&#x2B;110)  45/49.50BOS RL (&#x2B;120)   45/54(C)15-15-15-30

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