RL System

Thank you for the Win numbers.  Do you have the number of losses for 2009 for Game A,B, C?

MCSI,

I agree.  Boston is not getting it done.  Let me present you with some food for thoughts.

This is the data I get from therizz's thread:

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AL 2008 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 108-13

Game 1 wins= 65 (65-56, 53.7%)

Game 2 wins = 26 (26-30, 46.4%)

Game 3 wins = 17 (17-13, 56.7%)          108-99, 52.2%

NL 2009 = 130-17

Game 1 wins = 73    (73-74, 49.7%)

Game 2 wins = 38    (38-36, 51.4%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (19-17, 36.6%)        130-127, 50.6%

sean you stated it correctly.  All of the A games would have been -145 or higher.  The "regardless of odds" refers to games 2 and 3 of the chase I was testing.  Meaning that I would have played -1.5 RL even if the team I was chasing had + odds.  Hope this makes sense.  Your original thought was right and this would be a profitable angle which may have been better with just home teams... Remember only 34 of the 260 or so series from 2009 were played on road teams. 

therizz,

Thanks a lot for clarifying that.  You and MCSI have been very generous at sharing this system.

My thought is if we have a 53.7% angle with Game A playing mostly underdogs or slight favorites we have a good chance of making a profit.  Couple that with Labourchere Money Management and we should do ok.  We can skip Game B and C and reduce the risk of getting killed by the likes of Boston.

I still like to see the number of losses for Home Team in Game A, though. 

Not sure how to attribute the differences???  Did you use the scores and odds posted on covers or another source?

When I ran my analysis there were 51 sweeps (around 20% or so) by the favored team..  I have been meaning to look through playing every game in the series to win on the RL as opposed to stopping once you get your victory just to see what the percentage is.  I can hopefully do this during the weekend.  We are starting to look at things like opening o/u for the series, teamrankings, and the series prices offered at the beginning of series to better determine which series will win and/or cover on the runline... I don't have detailed enough data to backtest all of this but hopefully we will have some good stuff by the middle to end of the season.

therizz data is for ALL teams at odds of -145 or higher using RL.  MCSI is for only HOME teams at -140 or higher using RL.

Right?

So MCSI Home Team performance of -140 or higher using RL is:

Game A:  130-143 (47.6%)

Game B:   58-84    (41.3%)

Game C:   39-45    (46.4%)

This sounds about right?