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Sabermetrics - 2010 MLB System Plays and Analysis

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Posted: #26

wouldn't it be easy to backtest on games pulled from last year

to find the most consistant formula?

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Good Luck this season guys. I'm sure you all ready have a good understanding of what you are doing here, but for new guys wanting to get their feet wet, here is a nice article which outlines several Sabermetric approaches, and also includes complete formulas with helpful real-stat examples. Some of these approaches are listed in DJ's 1st post in this thread.

You can also click on the categories highlighted in red to go to an individual page devoted just to that approach, which breaks it down in much greater detail.

It's a lot to take in and you can easily become overwhelmed quickly. Try to break down each section and create your own notes on the ones you think would be useful. I found the DIPS ERA to be an interesting read, especially once you click the red heading and read the in-depth page.

Even tho it's still Spring Training, you should become familiar with the formulas you want to use for the regular season, and do a number of examples yourself so once the Season begins, you'll be able to run these much quicker.

SABERMETRICS PITCHING -- https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2010/3/Sabermetrics-Glossary-Pitching

SABERMETRICS HITTING -- https://ownersedge.fanball.com/article/2010/3/Sabermetrics-Glossary-Hitting

Hopefully someone will find something useful in all of that.

Cheers


Nice little info..Hope you guys getting ready because when the season starts its all about grinding on numbers while testing allot of formulas to find one with a edge..Its not gonna be easy so i hope you all are determine to get this done..Also if anyone has any website that shows batting lineup earlier than mlb.com please share as that will make things a little easier for us...Thank You..Now lets wait for the season to begin..
 
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Posted: #28
Seem you guys are not up for the task....oh well..
 
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Posted: #29
Butta... I've already mapped out how I'm going to go about this... and it includes letting the teams play for a week to build some stats for this year.

A lot of sabermetricians will say you need to use career stats for a lot of the formulas but I'm going to do my own average using 3 different sets of numbers (career, last season, current season). In order for me to do this, I need to have some current season stats to go off of. Thus why I haven't been active yet.

I'm also a student and we're into exams now so I'm busy with that as well.

It's a long summer my friend, hope to see you around through all of it.
 
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Posted: #30
PS. Thanks kreature for the links... great site!
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Butta... I've already mapped out how I'm going to go about this... and it includes letting the teams play for a week to build some stats for this year.

A lot of sabermetricians will say you need to use career stats for a lot of the formulas but I'm going to do my own average using 3 different sets of numbers (career, last season, current season). In order for me to do this, I need to have some current season stats to go off of. Thus why I haven't been active yet.

I'm also a student and we're into exams now so I'm busy with that as well.

It's a long summer my friend, hope to see you around through all of it.


Ok man looking forward..
 
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Posted: #32
Kreatture, where are you? Are you gonna do your spreadsheet this year?
 
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Posted: #33
Stay Tuned..


 
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Posted: #34

This is a great thread!

I think the DIPS ERA calc is a good tool for evaluating pitchers but I have a question about which stats to use. At the begining of the season you would have to use last years stats but for how long. After how many games could you use 2010 information, 5,10,... Maybe I'm making a bad assumption about using last years stats and we should use career stats. Does anyone have an opinion on this?

 
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Posted: #35

kreatture had the best spreadsheets i ever saw last year ...it was simply amazing imho and i for one hope you bring them back because it was easy to read and understand .

i know it takes alot of time and effort to do what you did last yr and i appreciated it very much as im sure so did others .ty  

 
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Posted: #36
 
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Posted: #37
Does anyone know of a site that updates commonly used metrics daily? It'd be nice to go to a site and have each pitcher's DIPS era already there so I didn't have to calculate it.
 
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Posted: #38
Over the first 5 games of the season, I took it easy and started developing a formula. Over the next 5 games, I started to finalize my formula.

Over the next 10 games, I will be testing and modifying this formula.

Games 20-30 will be wagered on lightly, but the formula will still be adjusted if need be.

By game 30, hopefully the formula will be set and producing winners on a semi-consistent basis (enough to profit). This is when I will stop tinkering and just go with the plays.

So without further delay:

Best Plays:

Astros/Cubs U9 [-115]
Marlins/Phillies O8 [-103]
Rockies [+126]
Dbacks [-106]
Giants/Dodgers O9 [-105]
Royals/Twins O7.5 [+104]
Tigers [+169]

The Rest:

Houston Astros 1.93
Chicago Cubs 3.87 [-176]
5.8 U9 [-115]

Cincinnati Reds 3.97 [+103]
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.96
7.93 U8.5 [-114]

Milwaukee Brewers 4.63 [-150]
Washington Nationals 4.15
8.78 O8.5 [-124]

Florida Marlins 5.13
Philadelphia Phillies 6.03 [-255]
11.16 O8 [-103]

Colorado Rockies 4.46 [+126]
Atlanta Braves 3.79
8.25 U8.5 [+103]

New York Mets 3.12
St. Louis Cardinals 3.20 [-246]
6.32 U7.5 [-121]

Arizona Diamondbacks 4.03 [-106]
San Diego Padres 2.86
6.89 U7.5 [-128]

San Francisco Giants 4.87
Los Angelese Dodgers 6.27 [-142]
11.14 O9 [-105]

Texas Rangers 3.11
New York Yankees 5.29 [-214]
8.4 U8.5 [-105]

Chicago White Sox 3.91 [-127]
Cleveland Indians 2.94
6.85 U9 [-123]

Los Angeles Angels 4.22
Toronto Blue Jays 4.57 [-106]
8.79 O8.5 [+102]

Tampa Bay Rays 4.39
Boston Red Sox 4.45 [-177]
8.84 U9.5 [-114]

Kansas City Royals 4.89
Minnesota Twins 5.07 [-125]
9.96 O7.5 [+104]

Baltimore Orioles 3.59 [+150]
Oakland Athletics 3.52
7.11 U7.5 [-106]

Detroit Tigers 3.95 [+169]
Seattle Mariners 2.59
6.54 U7 [+109] 

(Remember, these are test numbers still)
 
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Posted: #39
that is a lot of math and thinking. hope it scores big. 
 
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Posted: #40
i guess u don't like the astros today
 
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Posted: #41
It's definitely going to be time consuming... but if it can be profitable then it's worth it. I have lots of spare time anyways, and often spend it on here checking out picks and stats anyways... might as well do it properly!

Stay tuned!
 
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Posted: #42
1-0-1 to start off the day... should be 2-0!

Hopefully you didn't end up taking those Astros raidernator, they are awful on the bats.
 
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Posted: #43
uh oh. i took the Braves
 
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Posted: #44
They can't all be right raidernator!.. so I'd have to say the metrics might be wrong on that game cause I'd lean towards the Braves too. But I don't like to bet against metrics!
 
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Posted: #45
Good luck to you..but it would appear that you have the same problem I have using sabermetrics..it tends to pick the favorites too often.
 
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Posted: #46
Well... since favs hit at about a 60% clip, having about 60% favs is not a bad idea. Sure, today there are only about 30% worth of dogs but that's subject to change. Furthermore, you can use run predictions to know whether a heavy fav warrants a run line play or not (-1.5).

What kind of formula are you working with?
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

 
Best Plays:

Astros/Cubs U9 [-115] PUSH
Marlins/Phillies O8 [-103] 
Rockies [+126]
Dbacks [-106]
Giants/Dodgers O9 [-105]
Royals/Twins O7.5 [+104]
Tigers [+169]

The Rest:

Houston Astros 1.93
Chicago Cubs 3.87 [-176] 
5.8 U9 [-115] PUSH

Cincinnati Reds 3.97 [+103] 
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.96
7.93 U8.5 [-114]

Milwaukee Brewers 4.63 [-150] 
Washington Nationals 4.15
8.78 O8.5 [-124] 

Florida Marlins 5.13
Philadelphia Phillies 6.03 [-255] 
11.16 O8 [-103] 

Colorado Rockies 4.46 [+126]
Atlanta Braves 3.79
8.25 U8.5 [+103]

New York Mets 3.12
St. Louis Cardinals 3.20 [-246]
6.32 U7.5 [-121]

Arizona Diamondbacks 4.03 [-106]
San Diego Padres 2.86
6.89 U7.5 [-128]

San Francisco Giants 4.87
Los Angelese Dodgers 6.27 [-142]
11.14 O9 [-105]

Texas Rangers 3.11
New York Yankees 5.29 [-214] 
8.4 U8.5 [-105] 

Chicago White Sox 3.91 [-127] 
Cleveland Indians 2.94
6.85 U9 [-123] 

Los Angeles Angels 4.22
Toronto Blue Jays 4.57 [-106] 
8.79 O8.5 [+102] 

Tampa Bay Rays 4.39
Boston Red Sox 4.45 [-177]
8.84 U9.5 [-114]

Kansas City Royals 4.89
Minnesota Twins 5.07 [-125]
9.96 O7.5 [+104]

Baltimore Orioles 3.59 [+150]
Oakland Athletics 3.52
7.11 U7.5 [-106]

Detroit Tigers 3.95 [+169]
Seattle Mariners 2.59
6.54 U7 [+109] 

(Remember, these are test numbers still)


Best Plays: 1-0-1
The Rest: 7-4-1 (4-1-1 totals, 3-3 sides)
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

 
Best Plays:

Astros/Cubs U9 [-115] PUSH
Marlins/Phillies O8 [-103] 
Rockies [+126] 
Dbacks [-106] 
Giants/Dodgers O9 [-105] 
Royals/Twins O7.5 [+104] 
Tigers [+169] 

The Rest:

Houston Astros 1.93
Chicago Cubs 3.87 [-176] 
5.8 U9 [-115] PUSH

Cincinnati Reds 3.97 [+103] 
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.96
7.93 U8.5 [-114] 

Milwaukee Brewers 4.63 [-150] 
Washington Nationals 4.15
8.78 O8.5 [-124] 

Florida Marlins 5.13
Philadelphia Phillies 6.03 [-255] 
11.16 O8 [-103] 

Colorado Rockies 4.46 [+126] 
Atlanta Braves 3.79
8.25 U8.5 [+103] 

New York Mets 3.12
St. Louis Cardinals 3.20 [-246] 
6.32 U7.5 [-121] 

Arizona Diamondbacks 4.03 [-106] 
San Diego Padres 2.86
6.89 U7.5 [-128] 

San Francisco Giants 4.87
Los Angelese Dodgers 6.27 [-142] 
11.14 O9 [-105] 

Texas Rangers 3.11
New York Yankees 5.29 [-214] 
8.4 U8.5 [-105] 

Chicago White Sox 3.91 [-127] 
Cleveland Indians 2.94
6.85 U9 [-123] 

Los Angeles Angels 4.22
Toronto Blue Jays 4.57 [-106] 
8.79 O8.5 [+102] 

Tampa Bay Rays 4.39
Boston Red Sox 4.45 [-177] NO ACTION
8.84 U9.5 [-114] NO ACTION

Kansas City Royals 4.89
Minnesota Twins 5.07 [-125] 
9.96 O7.5 [+104] 

Baltimore Orioles 3.59 [+150] 
Oakland Athletics 3.52
7.11 U7.5 [-106] 

Detroit Tigers 3.95 [+169] 
Seattle Mariners 2.59
6.54 U7 [+109] 

(Remember, these are test numbers still)


Best Plays: 4-2-1
The Rest: 17-10-3 (10-3-2 totals, 7-7-1 sides)
 
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Posted: #49
the best plays did pretty goood !
 
 
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Posted: #50
I have a feeling totals will be the most profitable.

DJ's Best Plays:
Cubs [-142]
Dodgers [+155]
Giants/Dodgers O7.5 [-104]
Phillies [-113]
Marlins/Phillies O10.5 [-107]
DBacks [+125]
Yankees -1.5 [+111]
Royals/Twins O9.5 [-102]
White Sox [-118]
Tigers [-133]


The Rest:
Houston Astros 2.05
Chicago Cubs 4.41 [-142]
6.46 U7.5 [-120]

Milwaukee Brewers 4.97 [-148]
Washington Nationals 4.62
9.59 O9.5 [-121]

New York Mets 3.46 [+101]
St. Louis Cardinals 3.14
6.6 U7.5 [-111]

San Francisco Giants 4.80
Los Angelese Dodgers 6.91 [+155]
11.71 O7.5 [-104]

Florida Marlins 6.16
Philadelphia Phillies 7.83 [-113]
13.99 O10.5 [-107]

Cincinnati Reds 4.32
Pittsburgh Pirates 4.60 [+127]
8.92 O8.5 [-105]

Colorado Rockies 4.78 [-117]
Atlanta Braves 4.30
9.08 O8 [-110]

Arizona Diamondbacks 4.13 [+125]
San Diego Padres 3.24
7.37 U7.5 [+110]

Los Angeles Angels 4.93
Toronto Blue Jays 5.36 [+102]
10.29 O10 [-113]

Texas Rangers 3.54
New York Yankees 5.75 [-180]
9.29 U9.5 [-119]

Kansas City Royals 5.43
Minnesota Twins 6.07 [-184]
11.49 O9.5 [-102]

Baltimore Orioles 3.61
Oakland Athletics 3.89 [-163]
7.5 7.5 NO PLAY

Chicago White Sox 4.34 [-118]
Cleveland Indians 3.30
7.64 U8 [-115]

Tampa Bay Rays 4.38 
Boston Red Sox 4.68 [-136]
9.06 O9 [+102]

Detroit Tigers 4.46 [-133]
Seattle Mariners 3.17
7.63 O7.5 [+106]

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