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Score in 1st inning 3 game series chase

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Posted: #76
here's a list of the teams that have had no losses on a 3 game chase for Yes Score on 1st as AWAY team:
Mets
Dodgers
Marlins
Dbacks
Rangers
Rays
Blue Jays
A's
Padres
Angels

and here's a list for the same trend as Home teams.
Brewers
Blue Jays
Astros
Giants
Cubs
Dbacks
Orioles
Nationals

we have 7 games that are 3 game series starting Friday. Lets track them to see how they do. Games that qualify are:

Mets/Astros
A's/ Mariners
Dbacks/Rockies *****
Angels/Rangers
Rays/White Sox





 
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Posted: #77
Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

Like the approach, btw whys that one game have ***** ?

Cause Dbacks are a play both Home and Away? Alot of teams qualify here, makes sense since last 10 years a blind play of this would have won close to 90% of the time!


yes dbacks are undefeated at home and away and are our #1 chase team

how did you get the 90%. are you running it on SDQL? if so what trend/query are you running. just curious
 
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Posted: #79
89% actually here's the line: 

A(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG 

Not team specific either, so will be higher if we are more selective 
 
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Posted: #80
oh yeah.. same one I posted. Ok thought it was team specific.
yeah blind chase would be nice but unfortunately you know that each loss =10-12 unit loss

S(R1+o:R1>0 or p:R1+op:R1>0 or pp:R1+opp:R1>0),S(R1+o:R1=0 and p:R1+op:R1=0 and pp:R1+opp:R1=0)@season>=2007 and SGS=3=SG and A

5470-699 but that 699x10=6990 so its a losing trend that's why we pick the teams out
 
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Posted: #81
True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by PickleRick:

True, Just ran a generic one to see which trend hits at a higher winning percentage. So Score in 1st Inn is highest but loses total a high unit loss as many of these are juiced. Im looking into the Under/Over chase as I like only paying -110 on chase plays.


but you're running it on the whole league not specific teams right? How about this run it on teams that by the start of the all star break had no losses and by chasing those to the 2nd of season how they did. that would mean 4-7 teams chasing from July to end of season.
 
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Posted: #83
here's an example of Under chase for 2016 with top 4 teams before all star break and after all star break

A(U or p:U or pp:U) @ team in [Dodgers, Rockies, Yankees, Blue Jays] and season=2016  and SGS=3=SG and BASB,AASB
 
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Posted: #84
Mets/Astros  POSTPONED
A's/ Mariners 
Dbacks/Rockies ***** 
Angels/Rangers 
Rays/White Sox 

4-0 Sweep on the 1st game . Not bad.. 
 
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Posted: #85
BOOM BABY!
 
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Posted: #86
5 games qualify to start tomorrows on 3 game chase for yes score on 1st. Also check out my googledocs link I posted. had clean sweep on all categories this past weekend and will have bunch chases lined up. Pick and choose which ones you want to follow.

Dbacks
Rangers
Blue Jays
Angels
Orioles

 
Prospect
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Posted: #87
BOL! 
 
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Posted: #88
Dbacks 
Rangers 
Blue Jays 
Angels 
Orioles 

4-1 on 1st game. Dbacks to 2nd chase tomorrow
 
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Posted: #89
and Diamondbacks  make it a clean sweep.. 5-0... check out my other thread. I cleared 17-0 chases that started on Tues. Very profitable and promising. 
 
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Posted: #90
 
 
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Posted: #91
starting 5 new chases today:

TIGERS/BLUE JAYS
BREWERS/CUBS
PADRES/DIAMONDBACKS
ANGELS/MARINERS
RAYS/RED SOX

"YES" Score on 1st. 
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