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Successful systems

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Fellas, when do these MLB systems begin activating, roughly  - April?  Looking forward to the season.  Good thread!    
 
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Posted: #27
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by mike1502:

Fellas, when do these MLB systems begin activating, roughly  - April?  Looking forward to the season.  Good thread!    


most of the systems activate in may,  some people will post them up earlier.  the allstar mlb one don't activate till after allstar break.
 
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Posted: #29

I will run the parlay systems from opening day. Goal is 500 units.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by coolspot:



most of the systems activate in may,  some people will post them up earlier.  the allstar mlb one don't activate till after allstar break.

 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I will run the parlay systems from opening day. Goal is 500 units.


 
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Posted: #32

I think the key is being able to hang your hat on something - that something needs to be repeatable and ultimately shows a profit.  I used to look up a variety of factors when it came to baseball - including day of the week, left vs right, era, etc etc.   I finally realized - the oddsmakers are smart people who have the time money, data, to put a number on a game that probably takes into a consideration - left vs right, era etc.   The only thing I do now is evaluate a few factors - this includes the opening line (donbest.com);  I go to sagarin.com and look up every starting pitcher for that day and give each pitcher a numerical rating - then look up previous games played with that opening line and pitchers away/home with as close as you can get numerical ratings.   There are trends in the numbers and you follow the trends and bet accordingly.    The key is collecting, analyzing and recording the results daily.    Baseball is my favorite sport to bet and am looking forward to opening day.   Good luck you.

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I will run the parlay systems from opening day. Goal is 500 units.

The best to you always, may your goal be accomplished

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

I think the key is being able to hang your hat on something - that something needs to be repeatable and ultimately shows a profit.  I used to look up a variety of factors when it came to baseball - including day of the week, left vs right, era, etc etc.   I finally realized - the oddsmakers are smart people who have the time money, data, to put a number on a game that probably takes into a consideration - left vs right, era etc.   The only thing I do now is evaluate a few factors - this includes the opening line (donbest.com);  I go to sagarin.com and look up every starting pitcher for that day and give each pitcher a numerical rating - then look up previous games played with that opening line and pitchers away/home with as close as you can get numerical ratings.   There are trends in the numbers and you follow the trends and bet accordingly. "The key is collecting, analyzing and recording the results daily"... Baseball is my favorite sport to bet and am looking forward to opening day.   Good luck you.

absolutey! you hit the nail directly on the head, well said
 
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Posted: #35
Dan, Regarding the Parlay System will you run the money management the same as in your 2013 Thread using that successfull
progression risking $370 on 8 games with a double bank. you mentioned you might run (2) lines at a time this upcoming season? (more risk but more profit) We would appreciate input on the Money Management plan for the Parlay System
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by txsundevil:

Dan, Regarding the Parlay System will you run the money management the same as in your 2013 Thread using that successfull
progression risking $370 on 8 games with a double bank. you mentioned you might run (2) lines at a time this upcoming season? (more risk but more profit) We would appreciate input on the Money Management plan for the Parlay System

I will be running the system as an 8 game progression using $740 as a bank. Game one will start with $10 as a starting bet going up to $250 if we reach game 8. The progression is 10-20-30-50-80-120-180-250.

There will be at least two parlay line running at all times. The first will be the dog parlays (mostly dogs, especially early). The second will be low odds faves or heavy faves on the run line. I might run a third parlay on totals.

I will personally be using a bankroll of $2960, 4 banks of $740. When we add $740 to the total bank, I will divide by 4 and reset the betting amounts. For example, if we are fortunate right from the start and add $740 to the bank we will be at $3700. Divided by 4 is $925 which would make the betting progression start at $12.50, $25, etc ending at $312.50. I would adjust down again if we lose an 8 game chase and bankroll warrants the reduction. Will keep raising as the bankroll grows.

A good read would be the Tony Stoffo Money Management system. I'm following the principles in that.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by GhostNL:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkIdkXC0UBUbdHZqSERQZ1FRRWVmVHUtN0M1cWpGRHc#gid=6

The under .470 system looks good anybody is going to play that one this season, or knows the rules of the system?

I will run it for 2015, similar to what I did in 2014. 

Here is the plan for Cisco's system in 2015:
under 470 5RC - I will post it
over 525 5RC - I will post it
all games 5RC - Cisco will post it
streaks - Cisco will post it
Home Fav - not playing it

The over 525 win 5 run chase was developed by flywareagle and ran by Beefman, but I ran different filters then them and eliminated a loss last year. 

For rules, check the rules tab. 

I will create a new thread closer to the start of the season. In the meantime, here are links to the spreadsheets (still being developed for 2015). 

un470 & ov525:
https://tinyurl.com/krbces6

Cisco's streaks & all games:
https://tinyurl.com/ohzuknz
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

 The over 525 win 5 run chase was developed by flywareagle and ran by Beefman, but I ran different filters then them and eliminated a loss last year.

Hey Bart, I remember you stating that you ran different filters last year.  If you don't mind me asking, what are they?  TIA
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I will be running the system as an 8 game progression using $740 as a bank. Game one will start with $10 as a starting bet going up to $250 if we reach game 8. The progression is 10-20-30-50-80-120-180-250.

There will be at least two parlay line running at all times. The first will be the dog parlays (mostly dogs, especially early). The second will be low odds faves or heavy faves on the run line. I might run a third parlay on totals.

I will personally be using a bankroll of $2960, 4 banks of $740. When we add $740 to the total bank, I will divide by 4 and reset the betting amounts. For example, if we are fortunate right from the start and add $740 to the bank we will be at $3700. Divided by 4 is $925 which would make the betting progression start at $12.50, $25, etc ending at $312.50. I would adjust down again if we lose an 8 game chase and bankroll warrants the reduction. Will keep raising as the bankroll grows.

A good read would be the Tony Stoffo Money Management system. I'm following the principles in that.


Good stuff Dan.

The only thing that I might question is combining the bankrolls of each of your parlay system.  A couple of years ago, I had two systems that went undefeated (each over 100 units), but lost almost all of it on my third system which had it's worst year ever.  Since then, I have kept my bankrolls and it progressions/degressions for each system separate so that one system that might not have a good year won't kill the profit that the other systems generate.  If the bankroll of any system is depleted, I just stop playing that system for the year.  I might start out with $10 units for each system and down the road it might be $15 units for one system and $8 units for another.

Just food for thought.  I am really excited about your parlay systems.  Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:

Hey Bart, I remember you stating that you ran different filters last year.  If you don't mind me asking, what are they?  TIA


Hey, I am using the exact same filters as the un470 Chase (skip 2 more games if lose by 5+ runs, avoid games where fav is less then -110 or dog is greater then +175...)

I will start a new thread in about a month with the details.

Thanks again for letting me play around and post your system.

Good luck this year!
 
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Posted: #41

Hi Bart,

Just had a look through those sheets. Looks great, I look forward to tailing some of these this year.

Thanks heaps, much appreciated.

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:



Hey, I am using the exact same filters as the un470 Chase (skip 2 more games if lose by 5+ runs, avoid games where fav is less then -110 or dog is greater then +175...)

I will start a new thread in about a month with the details.

Thanks again for letting me play around and post your system.

Good luck this year!

Thanks and no problem.

Good luck to you too sir.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:


I will run it for 2015, similar to what I did in 2014. 

Here is the plan for Cisco's system in 2015:
under 470 5RC - I will post it
over 525 5RC - I will post it
all games 5RC - Cisco will post it
streaks - Cisco will post it
Home Fav - not playing it

The over 525 win 5 run chase was developed by flywareagle and ran by Beefman, but I ran different filters then them and eliminated a loss last year. 

For rules, check the rules tab. 

I will create a new thread closer to the start of the season. In the meantime, here are links to the spreadsheets (still being developed for 2015). 

un470 & ov525:
https://tinyurl.com/krbces6

Cisco's streaks & all games:
https://tinyurl.com/ohzuknz

 looking forward too it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #44
Esp for NHL and MLB there are many easy to follow succesfull non chasing systems. All are based on SDQL and make profit year in year out. The dog system Degan and others talked about can easily tracked by that.

Here are six examples from each major sport and I have tons of them:
MLB Dogs:
https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=D+and+p%3AD+and+p%3AW+and+p%3Aruns+%3C%3D+3+and+P%3ALOB+%3C%3D+13&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

NBA Away Favs:
https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=AF+and+line+%3C+-3+and+line+%3E+-10+and+Average%28margin%40team+and+season%29+%3E%3D+3+and+p%3Apoints+%3E+104+and+pp%3Apoints+%3E+104+and+ppp%3Apoints+%3E+104+and+rest+%3C+2+and+WP+%3E+64.1+and+game+number+%3E+16&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

NFL Under:
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=p%3AM3%3C%3D-5+and+p%3AWO&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

NHL Fade the Dogs:
https://sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?output=default&sdql=D+and+streak+%3E+3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

NCAAB Unders:
https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?output=default&sdql=p%3AAL+and+pp%3AAL+and+p%3Amargin+%3C%3D+-8+and+pp%3Amargin+%3C%3D+-11+and+WP+%3C%3D+50+and+rest+%3C%3D+5+and+not+C+and+po%3Apoints+%3E%3D+82+and+total+%3E+0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

NCAAF Unders:
https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?output=default&sdql=p%3Arushing+yards%3E300+and+line%3E-10&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

Just write me a PM or google SDQL.

NCAAF:


 
Prospect
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Posted: #45
Hi, new to systems with a labby line, I wanted to run crushers three main plays each day with a starting bankroll if 5000, what type of labby line should I run? Also a unit would be 25 dollars. Any suggestions on how to make the most unit profit. Any suggestions would be great! Thanks again!
 
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Posted: #46
I felt like the RPI system for home teams only had real potential. Even the worst season in the last 8-10 years still made around 5-10 units of profit if I recall.

 
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Posted: #47
First, wanna say welcome home, DeGen.  I learned alot from you and all your spreadsheets that I can make my own now.

For everyone else, here's something I was back testing for NHL and am starting for MLB, if you wager a number of different systems.

Instead of doing martingale for each individual chase, I do it as a daily thing.  I play a % on each bet...say 10% per 100 overall units on each wager.  Example:  I have 5 games day 1.  I go 4-1 with the loss being -150, so I'm up 35u with my bankroll at 135.  Now on day 2, my unit is 13.5 per game.  I have another day like day one...4-1, only loss -150...+30.25u (4w @13.5=50.5 - 20.25 (-150 @ 13.5)...bankroll at 165.25u.  I take out 50u and bank it...never to be used.  BR now at 115.25u, so my wager unit is now 11.5u.

I did this for NHL...backtest... and I was able to recoup my initial bankroll with in a month (not the same percentage...lower).  When a bad stretch came, I was using house money.

Using the example above, I'm at 120 with 50 banked.  My unit is 12 and I lose all 5 games @ -150.  That's 90u lossed, so my BR is at 30 with 50 banked.  My unit is 3u...I lose all that...I'm done, but only lost half of my BR for the season cause I banked.
This example was only 4 days and a simple one at that but it really seems to work.  I think it's better than the 35u to win 1u on a game E chase.
Also, you would still be playing the chases, just not at the same risk.
 
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Posted: #48
Hey Buckeye, could you repost the post above again with shorter sentences (hit return after each sentence)?  For some reason, much of your post to the right is lost.

I am interested in understanding your format.  Thanks
 
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Posted: #49
First, wanna say welcome home, DeGen.  I learned alot from you
and all your spreadsheets that I can make my own now.

For everyone else, here's something I was back testing for NHL 
and am starting for MLB, if you wager a number of different systems.

Instead of doing martingale for each individual chase, I do it as a daily 
thing.  I play a % on each bet...say 10% per 100 overall units on each 
wager.  Example:  I have 5 games day 1.  I go 4-1 with the loss being 
-150, so I'm up 35u with my bankroll at 135.  Now on day 2, my unit is 
13.5 per game.  I have another day like day one...4-1, only loss -150...
+30.25u (4w @13.5=50.5 - 20.25 (-150 @ 13.5)...bankroll at 165.25u.  
I take out 50u and bank it...never to be used.  BR now at 115.25u, so 
my wager unit is now 11.5u.

I did this for NHL...backtest... and I was able to recoup my initial bankroll 
with in a month (not the same percentage...lower).  When a bad stretch 
came, I was using house money.

Using the example above, I'm at 120 with 50 banked.  My unit is 12 and 
I lose all 5 games @ -150.  That's 90u lossed, so my BR is at 30 with 50 
banked.  My unit is 3u...I lose all that...I'm done, but only lost half of my 
BR for the season cause I banked.
This example was only 4 days and a simple one at that but it really 
seems to work.  I think it's better than the 35u to win 1u on a game E 
chase.
Also, you would still be playing the chases, just not at the same risk.


Having the same problem...its the web site
 
 
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Posted: #50
this has me stoked for baseball season.

Much respect to Dan, Bart, Cisco, Flywareagle, and anybody else putting in the work to deliver us winners. 
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