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Top Dog - NHL System

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Posted: #276
We need to think of some filters. Can you post the data on google drive or something like that so I can play around with it?
 
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Posted: #277
Thanks Dan 
 
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Posted: #278
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I like this idea, but it can be scary when there is a bad losing streak. Last year the top fave had winning streaks of 6, 9, 9, 7. Not sure I'd be able to chase this for 7-10 games. How many units would that 10th game be for and how many would you be down at that point?

I think I saw on here the betting progression is 1-5 units for the first 5 games. What is it for games 6-10? 

The Top Dog having an extended losing streak is more likely than the "Top Favorite" having one.  I checked 2011-2012 and similar to what Dan said about last year, there were many extended Fave streaks of 4-9 games.  There were only a handful of Top Dog winning streaks longer than 2 games. Thus it might be a better idea to play the Top Favorite every night.  At least that way you are playing with the stronger teams in the league.  Yeah it is heavy juice but at least you're not chasing with lousy teams.  Plus you can lay off the really big numbers and press a little to try and catch one of those streaks. Just my .02.  
bol
 
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Posted: #279

Waiting for the top dog to lose, say 4 or 5 in a row, and then starting the chase might be a lot easier on the bankroll.

 

 
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Posted: #280
...Or just wait until you get a night like last night, ANA +170 at home (gm 4) and hammer it.

I will be posting plays again as soon as I return to Internet land on Tuesday.
 
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Posted: #281
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

...Or just wait until you get a night like last night, ANA +170 at home (gm 4) and hammer it.

I will be posting plays again as soon as I return to Internet land on Tuesday.

Hammer Anaheim? They were a large fav not a dog and won!
 
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Posted: #282
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


Hammer Anaheim? They were a large fav not a dog and won!

And they only won by one, so couldn't have covered a +170 puckline. (If that was the bet and if that was the PL number, idk.)

 
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Posted: #283
Quote Originally Posted by Dutch1976:

Waiting for the top dog to lose, say 4 or 5 in a row, and then starting the chase might be a lot easier on the bankroll.

 


This is probably the best idea.  Even with waiting, there will still be plenty of chances to make money.
 
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Posted: #284
are we on game 9 tonite with Calgary @ San Jose?
 
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Posted: #285
10/11 GM1 NYI +165 (1 unit) = LOSS
10/12 GM2 BUFF+222 (2 units) = LOSS
10/13 GM3 FLA +130 (3 units) = LOSS
10/14 GM4 EDM +154 (4 units) = LOSS  ***could have been DET +152 (which won) but the system says TOP DOG at close, so I am using EDM +154.

10/15 GM5 EDM +222 (5 units) = LOSS
10/16 GM6 CAL +183 (6 units) = LOSS
10/17 GM7 FLA +156 (7 units) = LOSS
10/18 GM8 PHO +128 (8 units) = LOSS
10/19 GM9 CAL +231 (9 units) = LOSS
10/20 GM10 DAL +201 (10 units) = LOSS

10/21 GM11 CAL +188 (11 units).....pending







 
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Posted: #286
Man, this is the longest L streak I have ever seen!
 
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Posted: #287

This can't be a winning system. If Cal wins tonight you only make less than half your loses. (When adding one unit per loss)

Smallest dog might work. Looks like tonight would be Detroit +114..(I'm a sucker for a home dog anyway.)

 
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Posted: #288

Using Cover's past lines (Don't know how they match up to live lines at closing) and my fingers to keep count..Since Oct. 1st, the smallest dog lost 4 in a row and 3 in a row.

Maybe wait for the smallest dog to lose 2 in a row and then start a chase.

 
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Posted: #289
I am just tracking to see how far this goes...hypothetically it could go on forever but according to the past few years, it should end very soon - and I would like to be there to HAMMER it.
 
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Posted: #290
GM11 at +200 seems really juicy...but this could go on forever.

...someone talk me off this cliff!!!! 
 
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Posted: #291
darn it...

203905632-110/21/13 7:59pm$25.00$109.00Pending10/21/13 10:35pm  NHL Hockey  5 Calgary Flames -1 +436* vs Los Angeles Kings 
203905632-210/21/13 7:59pm$25.00$48.75Pending10/21/13 10:35pm  NHL Hockey  5 Calgary Flames +195* vs Los Angeles Kings 
203905632-310/21/13 7:59pm$25.00$78.25Pending10/21/13 10:35pm  NHL Hockey  5 Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) -½ +313* vs Los Angeles Kings (1st 60 min) 
203905632-410/21/13 7:59pm$25.00$57.50Pending10/21/13 10:35pm  NHL Hockey  5 Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) +230* vs Los Angeles Kings (1st 60 min) 

 
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Posted: #292
$100 to win $293.50
 
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Posted: #293
*10/10 through 10/20 record: 4-14 (55 units lost - 8.27 units already won = -46.73 units)




GM11 CAL +214 (11 units = 23.54 units)


10/23 updated record (following today's win): 5-14 (-23.19 units)
 
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Posted: #294
Season: 5-14 (-23.19 units)

GM1 CAL +185 (1 unit to win 1.85 units)

 
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Posted: #295
Season: 5-15 (-24.19 units)

GM2 BUF +147 (2 units to win 2.94 units)
 
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Posted: #296
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

Season: 5-15 (-24.19 units)

GM2 BUF +147 (2 units to win 2.94 units)



...I will post tonight's game after all lines close.
 
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Posted: #297
Season: 5-16 (-26.19 units)
GM3 PHO +141 (3 units)




GM4 looks like NYI +179 (4 units) - but there are a few close dogs...I will post after close.
 
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Posted: #298
My units are all messed up...and since I'm not actually betting every game here, I am done posting units.
 
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Posted: #299
Largest DOG On the night is actually Carolina (+193) currently ... Where you getting the odds big guy ? Good luck tonight !!
 
 
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Posted: #300
GM4 (Friday) ended up being CAR +196 (4 units)

GM5 (Saturday) BUF +201 (5 units)


After just looking at the past couple weeks results - I'm pretty sure we should be taking the TOP DOG when the lines OPEN...not close.  Much easier to see what team opened the highest vs at close.  Often, I find the late game lines changing after the early game(s) start.

Anyone want to back test this for a few seasons?
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