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TOP (HOME) DOG system

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Posted: #1
Just a trial.  Documenting TOP (HOME) DOG's only.  Credit to TheEtrain TOP DOG chase & my passion for plus money wagers as inspiration.  There will not be plays every day.  This is for documentation only - play at your own risk.  Tonight's play was:

WIN +142 


Prior TOP (HOME) DOG wins:
11/7  OTT -104 & WAS -104 (tied as top home dog)
11/6  NYR +121. 
11/4  WIN +134
10/30 LA +120
10/26 TOR +129
10/20 CLB +117
10/18 WIN +107
10/11 FLA +156
10/9 CAL +129



I have back tested through the 2010/11 season...mostly an average of 3-4 game chase to win, with two separate and very problematic 10 game losing streaks ('10/'11 season) which was when I put the brakes on further back testing this system - but - it has looked very appealing lately and I'm wondering if there is still a way to make sense of it...

Comments, ideas, etc welcome.

I will continue to post plays below.
 
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Posted: #2
No play Monday.
 
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Posted: #3
On the losing streak of 10 games, how many were by 1 goal?  Wondering if you could bet in a way that you could break even with a loss by 1 goal by betting the PL, obviously profit with an outright win but still wager about the same as you normally would between the two bets. Your profit on wins would be less due to taking the puck line but I'd imagine you would eliminate those 10 game loss streaks. 

I know how to create a -1 line in baseball but I'd have to crunch some numbers on this to make sense of it.  Just brainstorming. I like the thought of you idea though.  

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #4
You got my curiosity Green Machine! Good luck man!
 
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Posted: #5
Dan, I would think doing a -1 puck line would be the same as a -1 run line
 
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Posted: #6
Only two games of the first 10 game losing streaks were within one goal.  5 games during the second losing streak.

Here they are...
(1st 10 game)
1/17/11 NYI +106
1/18      EDM +117
1/20      EDM +146
1/21      OTT +105
1/22      TOR +115
1/23      EDM +140 (loses by 1)
1/25      OTT +112 (loses by 1)
1/26      NYI +142
2/1        CLB +126
2/2        OTT +153
2/3      TOR +101 *WIN

(2nd 10 games)
3/4/11 OTT+130
3/5    TOR +125
3/6    FLA +177 (loses by 1)
3/8    PHO +115 (loses by 1)
3/10  TOR +131 (loses by 1)
3/11  COL +125
3/12  CAL +110 (loses by 1)
3/14  TOR -104
3/15  FLA +137 (loses by 1)
3/17  EDM +176
3/19  OTT +141 *WIN



I did notice that a lot of the losses were only by one goal...but then again each season varies in terms of results for this system.  The most recent couple were good/great though.


 
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Posted: #7
In terms of the puckline, it would be tough to back test with that...don't have much info there.  Here's what I had for TB (the dog) today:

TB +150
TB +1.5 goals (-200)

pretty heavy juice on the P/L but it is definitely something I was wondering how we could include to maybe help make some sense of this system.  The other option is to just cut off the chase after maybe 3 games...or even bet everything flat?

Here are all the back testing figures I have so far (below) through the 09/10 season.  The numbers (1-11) indicate how many games needed to chase to get a win...and how many games fell under each category.

(1) - 127 wins with no chase
(2) - 66 wins on second game of chase
(3) - 31 wins on third game of chase
(4) - 19 ...etc
(5) - 10
(6) - 2
(7) - 5
(8) - 1
(9) - 0
(10) - 1
(11) - 2





 
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Posted: #8

In your example above on TB, if I usually $50, I would do $34 on the PL to win $17 and $16 on the ML to win $24. If they lose by 2, you still lose the $50 you would have lost anyway. If they lose by 1, you actually win $1 and if they win outright you gain $40. This would be ok to reduce the losses on the long streaks but given your other numbers I wouldn't do it this way.

You could easily do a 5 game chase and come out pretty good. At + odds each 5 game loss would be 24 units if you went 1-2-3-6-12 (I wouldn't go 1-2-4-8-16 since the +odds would net a profit). Based on the 24 units you would have lost 13 series (have to count the 2 on 11 twice after starting a new chase after a loss). Those 13 losses would be 312 units.

Wins would be 500 units x the +odds. Even if odds average +120 you'd be at 600 units - 312 = 288 units

  • 1 - 131
  • 2 - 142
  • 3 - 96
  • 4 - 76
  • 5 - 55

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #9

Also, by Top Home Dog I'm assuming you mean the home dog that is the biggest underdog. If one home dog is +150 and another +175, you play the +175?

Lot of home dogs Tuesday.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #10
Thanks Dan.  The tough part is figuring out when to use the P/L...after one loss, two, three...five? Another thing to consider, many of the 1 goal losses came from regulation ties, OT, shoot-outs, etc.


...you are correct about the top home dog (highest payout on a home team - as low as [-104]).  At this moment in time, FLA +170 is the top home dog for tomorrow - however - all back testing was done with closing lines.

I actually like FLA tomorrow for the sheer fact that they've lost 9 straight, this will be their 10th - at home.  Simple odds of winning or losing 10 straight are significant enough to attract my attention, then you add the +170... 
 
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Posted: #11
There were exactly 6 occasions over the past 4 years (through 09/10 season) with 2 TOP HOME DOG plays in one night (teams had same juice).

Example from 3/25/11:

WAS -164
OTT +151   WIN

VAN -164
ATL +151    LOSE


***I only counted the first LISTED top home dog game (on covers) as the play and did not count the second game in the chase/numbers/back testing/etc.


Another examples: 10/8/11 ANA/COL+115.... 10/13/11 NJ/PIT +107..... 10/17/11 WIN/EDM +118.... 4/5/12 MIN/CAL
+132
 
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Posted: #12
Also saw a couple night with confusing juice...

NAS -106
DET -101

COL -104
TOR -104


For back testing purposes, I always chose the TOP HOME DOG with the highest payout...which, in this case was DET -101.
 
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Posted: #13
TOP HOME DOG SYSTEM play for tonight:

(A) BUF +172
 
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Posted: #14
TOP HOME DOG WINS:
10/9 CAL +129
10/11 FLA +156
10/18 WIN +107
10/20 CLB +117
10/26 TOR +129
10/30 LA +120
11/4  WIN +134
11/6  NYR +121.
11/7  OTT -104 & WAS -104 (tied as top home dog)
11/10 WIN +142


...and most recently tonight

11/12 BUF +172  (A) 

 
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Posted: #15
TOP HOME DOG WINS:
10/9 CAL +129
10/11 FLA +156
10/18 WIN +107
10/20 CLB +117
10/26 TOR +129
10/30 LA +120
11/4  WIN +134
11/6  NYR +121.
11/7  OTT -104 & WAS -104 (tied as top home dog)
11/10 WIN +142
11/12 BUF +172  (A) 

...LOST tonight with an (A) EDM +104
 
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Posted: #16
11/14 (B) NYI +112
 
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Posted: #17
Top HOME dog chase:

(B) 11/14 NYI +112 - LOSS
(C) 11/15 EDM +151 (will post closing line after game starts)




***I am only posting for tracking purposes, bet at your own risk.
 
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Posted: #18

Never playing hockey before (except when a kid on the Chicago River) I came across a very improbable winning system.  With no history.

I 2-team parlay the visiting dogs on the puck line.  Don't follow it, it makes no sense, you are sure to fall through the ice.

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by GreenMachine22:

Top HOME dog chase:

(B) 11/14 NYI +112 - LOSS
(C) 11/15 EDM +151 - LOSS
(D) 11/16 NAS +158 - WIN & clears chase





(A) 11/17 WAS -102
 
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Posted: #20
TOP HOME DOG WINS:
10/9 CAL +129
10/11 FLA +156
10/18 WIN +107
10/20 CLB +117
10/26 TOR +129
10/30 LA +120
11/4  WIN +134
11/6  NYR +121.
11/7  OTT -104 & WAS -104 (tied as top home dog)
11/10 WIN +142
11/12 BUF +172  (A)
11/16 NAS +158 (D) WIN
11/17 WAS +101 (A) WIN

 
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Posted: #21
(A) 11/18 CAR +142 ...LOSS (4-1)


(B) tomorrow looks like BUF +177
 
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Posted: #22
11/19 (B) BUF +170
 
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Posted: #23
11/18 (A) CAR +142 ...LOSS (4-1)
11/19 (B) BUF +170 ...LOSS (4-1)
11/20 (C) ....pending

(C) tomorrow looks like WAS +104 at the moment.  I will update tomorrow, closer to game time.
 
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Posted: #24
11/18 (A) CAR +142 ...LOSS (4-1)
11/19 (B) BUF +170 ...LOSS (4-1)
11/20 (C) WAS +104 ...LOSS (4-0)
11/21 (D) ...pending - looks like WIN +146
 
 
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Posted: #25
Christ , this whole thing is riding on a huge bet against the Blackhawks? 

Best of luck. 
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