The issue from a capping (which side to bet) perspective is how does the computer take into account recent form, team psychology, injuries, other motivational factors (revenge, dissage and shit-talkin bulletin bd material), whistle benefits... and so on.
Most computer programs are making predictions based on a fixed data set; and thats a major factor of capping, but hardly nuff to throw money at. So take the data for what its worth... but I'd be wary about takin on the books when they offer up distorted lines. More times than not you'll be the one mugged in the alley with empty pockets.
I'm not btin on the "too many points" bait...in fact, Giants, Steelers & Niners will all make my card in one fashion or another.
The issue from a capping (which side to bet) perspective is how does the computer take into account recent form, team psychology, injuries, other motivational factors (revenge, dissage and shit-talkin bulletin bd material), whistle benefits... and so on.
Most computer programs are making predictions based on a fixed data set; and thats a major factor of capping, but hardly nuff to throw money at. So take the data for what its worth... but I'd be wary about takin on the books when they offer up distorted lines. More times than not you'll be the one mugged in the alley with empty pockets.
I'm not btin on the "too many points" bait...in fact, Giants, Steelers & Niners will all make my card in one fashion or another.
There are two small changes in the way these
numbers were calculated. One is related
strictly to offense. I am skewing the
results for how many first downs were afforded by penalties. I am doing this with a negative skew. This hurts a team like Baltimore, because
unless the statistics I am using are faulty, I see that they have been afforded
20 first downs by penalties on the year.
Whether or not they have “earned” these, I am skewing them negatively,
so there is a small change there.
Another change I am making should more accurately predict the spread. I am using the “z-score” method to “standardize scoring”. These will be THE LAST CHANGES I will make so I can understand how this model performs without any more variations throughout the year. This will give the lines a better statistical advantage when formulating my hypothesis. The formula involves the following:
1. Teams Overall Score
2.
St Deviation of Population (32 overall scores)
3.
Population Mean
The formula is calculated such as
this:
Z=(x- µ)/ s
Z
= score
X
= mean
µ
= population mean
s
= standard deviation of population
There are two small changes in the way these
numbers were calculated. One is related
strictly to offense. I am skewing the
results for how many first downs were afforded by penalties. I am doing this with a negative skew. This hurts a team like Baltimore, because
unless the statistics I am using are faulty, I see that they have been afforded
20 first downs by penalties on the year.
Whether or not they have “earned” these, I am skewing them negatively,
so there is a small change there.
Another change I am making should more accurately predict the spread. I am using the “z-score” method to “standardize scoring”. These will be THE LAST CHANGES I will make so I can understand how this model performs without any more variations throughout the year. This will give the lines a better statistical advantage when formulating my hypothesis. The formula involves the following:
1. Teams Overall Score
2.
St Deviation of Population (32 overall scores)
3.
Population Mean
The formula is calculated such as
this:
Z=(x- µ)/ s
Z
= score
X
= mean
µ
= population mean
s
= standard deviation of population
NON ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY ATS
1.
Book Says Pitt -3 @Miami / Computer Says Pitt -1.88
2.
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -2.21
3.
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says
KC – 5.41
4.
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*
5.
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says
Chicago - .084
6.
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says
* NO – 3.712*
7.
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*
8.
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer
Says San Fran -4.25
9.
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says
Tampa -5.9
10.
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*
11.
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says
SD -1.96
12.
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den
-4.6
13.
Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says
Minn -.6726
14.
Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says *NYG -2.55*
NON ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY ATS
1.
Book Says Pitt -3 @Miami / Computer Says Pitt -1.88
2.
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -2.21
3.
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says
KC – 5.41
4.
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*
5.
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says
Chicago - .084
6.
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says
* NO – 3.712*
7.
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*
8.
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer
Says San Fran -4.25
9.
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says
Tampa -5.9
10.
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*
11.
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says
SD -1.96
12.
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den
-4.6
13.
Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says
Minn -.6726
14.
Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says *NYG -2.55*
ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY (3 Points For Home
Team)
1.
Book Says Pitt -3 @Miami / Computer Says Miami -1.11
2.
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -5.21
3.
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says * KC – 8.4*
4.
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says Tenn -1.41
5.
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says
Chicago – 3.08
6.
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says
*NO – 6.712*
7.
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 6.42*
8.
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer
Says San Fran -1.25
9.
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says
* Tampa -8.9*
10.
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -12.55*
11.
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says
SD -4.96
12.
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den
-7.6
13.
Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says
GB-2.32
14.
Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says Dal -.44
ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY (3 Points For Home
Team)
1.
Book Says Pitt -3 @Miami / Computer Says Miami -1.11
2.
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -5.21
3.
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says * KC – 8.4*
4.
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says Tenn -1.41
5.
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says
Chicago – 3.08
6.
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says
*NO – 6.712*
7.
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 6.42*
8.
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer
Says San Fran -1.25
9.
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says
* Tampa -8.9*
10.
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -12.55*
11.
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says
SD -4.96
12.
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den
-7.6
13.
Book Says@ Green Bay -2.5 Minnesota / Computer Says
GB-2.32
14.
Book Says@ Dallas -3 NYGiants / Computer Says Dal -.44
San Diego Chargers 18845.95055 1.678105044
Indianapolis Colts 15389.04512 1.155500862
Kansas City Chiefs 15121.79369 1.115098624
Philadelphia Eagles 14632.29289 1.041097419
New England Patriots 14372.56133 1.001832011
Pittsburgh Steelers 14288.31578 0.989096031
New York Giants 14000.65684 0.945608651
New York Jets 12461.92817 0.712988448
New Orleans Saints 12270.12008 0.6839915
Atlanta Falcons 12266.54346 0.683450797
Tennessee Titans 11020.17035 0.495027997
Miami Dolphins 9991.910122 0.339578821
Chicago Bears 9404.792837 0.250820261
Washington Redskins 9212.663589 0.22177476
Seattle Seahawks 8708.742217 0.145593499
Denver Broncos 8507.443417 0.115161774
Houston Texans 8442.304599 0.10531429
Baltimore Ravens 8339.645474 0.089794604
Dallas Cowboys 8180.41559 0.065722727
Minnesota Vikings 8037.040563 0.044047737
Cincinnati Bengals 7220.188146 -0.079441464
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6842.193599 -0.136585501
Green Bay Packers 6503.231057 -0.187828801
Cleveland Browns 3804.928984 -0.595749695
San Francisco 49ers 3029.794125 -0.712932166
San Diego Chargers 18845.95055 1.678105044
Indianapolis Colts 15389.04512 1.155500862
Kansas City Chiefs 15121.79369 1.115098624
Philadelphia Eagles 14632.29289 1.041097419
New England Patriots 14372.56133 1.001832011
Pittsburgh Steelers 14288.31578 0.989096031
New York Giants 14000.65684 0.945608651
New York Jets 12461.92817 0.712988448
New Orleans Saints 12270.12008 0.6839915
Atlanta Falcons 12266.54346 0.683450797
Tennessee Titans 11020.17035 0.495027997
Miami Dolphins 9991.910122 0.339578821
Chicago Bears 9404.792837 0.250820261
Washington Redskins 9212.663589 0.22177476
Seattle Seahawks 8708.742217 0.145593499
Denver Broncos 8507.443417 0.115161774
Houston Texans 8442.304599 0.10531429
Baltimore Ravens 8339.645474 0.089794604
Dallas Cowboys 8180.41559 0.065722727
Minnesota Vikings 8037.040563 0.044047737
Cincinnati Bengals 7220.188146 -0.079441464
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6842.193599 -0.136585501
Green Bay Packers 6503.231057 -0.187828801
Cleveland Browns 3804.928984 -0.595749695
San Francisco 49ers 3029.794125 -0.712932166
Jacksonville Jaguars 2783.537289 -0.750160506
Detroit Lions 2754.978802 -0.754477889
St. Louis Rams 2652.13295 -0.770025804
Buffalo Bills 518.5956412 -1.092567322
Oakland Raiders -1998.071958 -1.473029282
Carolina Panthers -6664.328716 -2.178459428
Arizona Cardinals -13079.92768 -3.148349675
Jacksonville Jaguars 2783.537289 -0.750160506
Detroit Lions 2754.978802 -0.754477889
St. Louis Rams 2652.13295 -0.770025804
Buffalo Bills 518.5956412 -1.092567322
Oakland Raiders -1998.071958 -1.473029282
Carolina Panthers -6664.328716 -2.178459428
Arizona Cardinals -13079.92768 -3.148349675
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -2.21/ Win
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says KC – 5.41/
Win
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*/ Loss
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago -
.084/ Loss
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says * NO – 3.712*/ Win
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*/ Win
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San
Fran -4.25/ Loss
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says Tampa -5.9/ Loss
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*/ Win
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -1.96/
Win
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -4.6/ Win
Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati / Computer Says Atl -2.21/ Win
Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says KC – 5.41/
Win
Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*/ Loss
Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago -
.084/ Loss
Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says * NO – 3.712*/ Win
Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*/ Win
Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San
Fran -4.25/ Loss
Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says Tampa -5.9/ Loss
Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*/ Win
Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -1.96/
Win
Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -4.6/ Win
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