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XTC's Statistical NFL System (last thread erased?)

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Posted: #26

Didnt copy last post correctly...


NON ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY ATS

Non-Highlighted Results (8-4 ATS)

Highlighted Results (3-1 ATS)

Book Says Pitt -3  @Miami / Computer Says Pitt -1.88/ Win

Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati /  Computer Says Atl -2.21/ Win

Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says KC – 5.41/ Win

Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says *Philly – 1.58*/ Loss

Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago - .084/ Loss

Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says * NO – 3.712*/ Win

Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 3.42*/ Win

Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San Fran -4.25/ Loss

Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says Tampa -5.9/  Loss

Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -9.5*/  Win

Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -1.96/ Win

Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -4.6/ Win

 
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Posted: #27

ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY (3 Points For Home Team)

Non-Highlighted Results (6-6 ATS)

Highlighted Results (4-1 ATS)

Book Says Pitt -3  @Miami / Computer Says Miami -1.11/ Win

Book Says @ATL -3.5 Cincinnati /  Computer Says Atl -5.21/ Win

Book Says@ KC -4.5 Jacksonville / Computer Says * KC – 8.4*/ Win

Book Says @Tennessee -3 Philly / Computer Says  Tenn -1.41/ Loss

Book Says @Chicago -3 Washington /Computer Says Chicago – 3.08/ Loss

Book Says @New Orleans -13 Cleveland/ Computer Says  *NO – 6.712*/ Win

Book Says @Baltimore -13 Buffalo/ Computer Says *Balt – 6.42*/ Win

Book Says San Francisco -3 @ Carolina/ Computer Says San Fran -1.25/ Loss

Book Says @Tampa Bay -3 St. Louis / Computer Says * Tampa -8.9*/ Loss

Book Says @Seattle -5.5 Arizona / Computer Says *Seattle -12.55*/ Win

Book Says @San Diego -3 New England / Computer Says SD -4.96/ Loss

Book Says @Denver -7 Oakland / Computer Says Den -7.6/ Loss

 
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Posted: #28
I will continue to keep the statistics in this format.  I am not going to worry about trying to keep up with the stats for SU.

Still not sure how I am going to end up betting these, but I think keeping the Home/Away and Non-Adjusted for now will be a good start.  

I also think the Standardized Scoring with Z-Score Method of Obtaining these spreads is the best way going about this whole thing.

GL everyone
 
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Posted: #29
I noticed I made 2 mistakes in my Non-Adjusted Games and 1 mistake in my Adjusted Games.

1st Mistake = Atlanta Game, should be a LOSS

2nd Mistake = Chicago Games, should be a WIN

Still equals out to same win/loss margin for the Non-Adjusted

Mistake in the Adjusted Games is:

1. San Fran, should be a WIN

The Adjusted ATS should be (7-5 ATS) instead of 6-6
 
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Posted: #30

Huge effort from you.

Well done and thank you . Very much appreciated

Best of luck to you each and every week mate

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by TERRI_ZARZZOFF:

Huge effort from you.

Well done and thank you . Very much appreciated

Best of luck to you each and every week mate


No problem, it is a nice escape from the world of quantitative finance.  Especially when it isn't paying :)

Just to remind you this is still "beta" in a sense, so I have not really figured out how I am going to bet these still.  Probably will settle just on the highlighted games, but I would like to see a couple more weeks of stats before I decide just on those.
 
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Posted: #32
After Sunday Night Game:

NON ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY

Non-Highlighted Results (8-5 ATS)

Highlighted Results (3-1 ATS)


Minnesota / Loss



ADJUSTED FOR HOME / AWAY 

Non-Highlighted Results (7-6 ATS)

Highlighted Results (4-1 ATS)


Minnesota / Loss




Monday Nights game has a Non-Adjusted Highlighted Game that is in favor of the NYG covering.  Adjusted scoring shows no highlighted games.  This information can be seen on the first page of this thread btw near the bottom.

GL Everyone
 
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Posted: #33
After Monday Night Game

Non-Adjusted Highlighted Game (4-1 ATS)

NYG / Win

Adjusted Non-Highlighted (8-6 ATS)

NYG / Win


Week Totals:

NON ADJUSTED GAMES

Highlighted Games (4-1 ATS)
Non-Highlighted Games (9-5 ATS)


ADJUSTED FOR HOME/AWAY

Highlighted Games (4-1 ATS)
Non Highlighted Games (8-6 ATS)


Overall was a good week for the system.  I think the standardized Z-Score model worked to my advantage, but again still too early to know for sure.

The total ATS for Highlighted Games from the week before including this week is 7-3 ATS or 8-3 ATS depending on which model I would have used.  I believe it will be much more difficult this coming week with a lot of tight spreads.  Combine that with a greater overall knowledge of all teams by all betting participants which will of course add to the difficulty (hypothetically).  

GL everyone!
 
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Posted: #34
Week 8

I am not going to bother posting all the individual team scores etc. as they never format correctly anyway.  As I suspected the lines have gotten much tighter and there are only 12 games on the board this weekend + 1 on Monday.

Here are the results nonetheless.  I would like to see a week or two more before I really start hammering these personally just to be safe.  Again, use at your own discretion just to perhaps back up your original thoughts on the matter.

red = highlighted
green = very close to highlighted (>3.x)


Non Adj / Adjusted / Book

KC - 8.19 / -11.19 / -7.5

DAL -5.52 / -8.52 / -6.5

STL -4.11 / -7.11 / -3

CIN +.62 / -2.37 / -1

DET +2.25 / -.74 / -2.5

SF -.53 / -3.53 / -1

NYJ -2.88 / -5.88 / -6

SD -1.3 / -4.3 / -3.5

AZ +9.18 / +6.18 / -3

NE -3.46 / -6.46 / -5.5

OAK +1.62 / -1.37 / -2.5

NO +1.62 / -1.37 / -1

IND -2.93 / -5.93 / -5.5
 
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Posted: #35
Again, so there is no confusion please ask if something doesn't make sense.

Examples for this week

KC ADJUSTED -11.19 (very close to highlighted KC play, so go KC)

AZ NON ADJ +9.18 (not close at all, go TB)

TB is BY FAR the strongest play according to the computer.  Again, for now use at your own discretion.  IMO this is still beta work.
 
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Posted: #36
NON ADJUSTED HIGHLIGHTED ONLY PLAYS FOR WEEK 8

1. Washington Redskins  +2.5
2. Tampa Bay Bucs +3
3. Seattle Seahawks +2.5



ADJUSTED HIGHLIGHTED ONLY PLAYS FOR WEEK 8

1. St. Louis Rams -3
2. Tampa Bay +3



VERY CLOSE NON-ADJ HIGHLIGHTED PLAYS FOR WEEK 8 (>3.X)

1.  Green Bay Packers +6



VERY CLOSE ADJ HIGHLIGHTED PLAYS FOR WEEK 8 (>3.X)

1. Kansas City Chiefs -7.5



Good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #37

best of luck mate. I will be using as a guide only this weekend. But it is certainly helping point me in the right direction.

Thank you

 
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Posted: #38
Good to hear.  Not betting it personally yet, but probably next week.  We also have many more games, this week is pretty flat IMO and there will be a lot of close games that come down to luck.

Again, GL
 
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Posted: #39
As I was expecting this was a pretty marginal week.  Too many tight spreads and not enough games.  Looks like it ended up pretty break-even although the computers strongest pick did come through again for the third straight week with Tampa.  Might I also add this game ended up a whole hell of a lot tighter than I thought it would.

Results Minus Monday Night

Non Adj

5-7

Adj H/A

7-5

Non Adj Highlighted Only

1-2

Adj Highlighted Only

2-0

Very Close Non Adj

1-0

Very Close Adj

0-1


When I post stats for next week I will lay out how I will personally bet them (if I end up personally betting them).  This is just a hobby for me as it is a good escape from work.

Good Luck!
 
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Posted: #40
Week 9

Everything still the same as far as calculations.  Once more we are talking 13 games, bye's have to be over this week?  If the results stay true I will probably start to play these myself.

Again, if you are confused, please ask.

Book / Non-Adj  /  ADJ 

-3 Chicago /-1.8 / **+1.13** 

-3 San Diego /-3.2 / .2 

-6.5 New Orleans /-8.45 / -5.45  

-8 Minnesota /-7.8 / -10.8 

-8.5 ATL /**-3.48** / -6.48 

-4 NY Jets /-3.21 / *-.21*   

-5.5  BALT /** +.82** / *-2.1* 

-4.5 NEW Eng /-6.61 / -3.61 

-7 NYGiants /-4.21 / **-1.21** 

-2.5 Oakland /**+3.25** / +.25 
 
-3 Philly /*+.85* / -2.14 

-7.5 Green Bay /**-.04** / **-3.04**  

-5 PITT /-3.42 / **-.49** 


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
 
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Posted: #41
Non Adjusted Highlighted Plays

1.  Tampa Bay + 8.5

2. Miami + 5.5

3. Kansas City +2.5

4. Dallas + 7.5


Adjusted Highlighted Plays

1.  Buffalo + 3

2.  Seattle + 7

3. Dallas + 7

4. Cincinnati + 5


Non Adjusted Very Close (>3.x)

1. Indy + 3


Adjusted Very Close (>3.x)

1. Detroit + 4

2. Miami + 5.5
 
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Posted: #42
So best bets according to the system are

1. Dallas

2. Miami

3. Seattle

All about the same.  Dallas is highlighted twice so I guess you could say this is the strongest, but all three are pretty close I would say.
 
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Posted: #43
Hey XTC I like what you got going on here, just had a question about how to read all the numbers and just a basic cover, I should be able to figure out the rest. Thanks alot keep it up!
 
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Posted: #44
These 3 would be considered "highlighted" plays?


Love what you're doing here. Lines in pros seem a lot tighter than college - especially this year.
Do you intend to apply this formula to collegE?

 
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Posted: #45
Hey guys Time2Score & Dogprint

Time2Score -

So from this week we have the book line favorite in the first column

The Non-Adjusted Spread from my computer, which is not adjusted for home / away bias.

The Adjusted Spread from my computer, which is adjusted for home/away, which I give a 3 point bias to the home team.

For example, from this week.

-5.5  BALT /** +.82** / *-2.1*


Book Line is -5.5 Baltimore

Non Adjusted says Baltimore should be +.82

Adjusted For Home and Away should be Balt - 2.1 (Since they are playing in Baltimore).

Does this help?

You can see all the results from all the weeks if you backtrack through the thread.  It might make more sense.

DAWGRPINT:

In Post #41 of this thread I outline all the highlighted and very close (>3.x) plays for this week.

After reading the previous part of this post addressed to the other poster let me know if you still are confused.

By the way, I am not doing it for college.  I literally have about 1-2 hours a day where I am not working as the hedge fund industry is finally kicking back into gear and this takes up a large chunk of my free time. 

I also have the hypothesis that NFL is more predictable because there is a greater % of talent and of course because they are "professionals" (ideally, ha).

But anyway, let me know if you are still foggy on subjects.
 
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Posted: #46
XTC - LOL I'm just an ole redneck trying to beat the book!

very close games aren't as consistent as the as the highlighted plays, so we'll stick with highlighted, which are your big 3 I see. 

I'm liking your system.  I was just curious if you could find the same thing in college with a line being way out  of wack.  Problem with college is they're usually not as close to the spread!

Thanks for your help and BOL!


 
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Posted: #47
They probably are more out of whack than others, regarding college football.  I just don't have the time to do 50+ more teams, maybe if I was doing it only as my job or something etc.

Like I said before, just use them at your own discretion as this hasn't been tested for longer than I have had this thread running if you know what I mean.
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by xtc_savedmylife:

Hey guys Time2Score & Dogprint

Time2Score -

So from this week we have the book line favorite in the first column

The Non-Adjusted Spread from my computer, which is not adjusted for home / away bias.

The Adjusted Spread from my computer, which is adjusted for home/away, which I give a 3 point bias to the home team.

For example, from this week.

-5.5  BALT /** +.82** / *-2.1*


Book Line is -5.5 Baltimore

Non Adjusted says Baltimore should be +.82

Adjusted For Home and Away should be Balt - 2.1 (Since they are playing in Baltimore).

Does this help?

You can see all the results from all the weeks if you backtrack through the thread.  It might make more sense.

DAWGRPINT:

In Post #41 of this thread I outline all the highlighted and very close (>3.x) plays for this week.

After reading the previous part of this post addressed to the other poster let me know if you still are confused.

By the way, I am not doing it for college.  I literally have about 1-2 hours a day where I am not working as the hedge fund industry is finally kicking back into gear and this takes up a large chunk of my free time. 

I also have the hypothesis that NFL is more predictable because there is a greater % of talent and of course because they are "professionals" (ideally, ha).

But anyway, let me know if you are still foggy on subjects.

Hey XTC,

So what you're thing is telling me is that Balt should actually be +.82, but since at home they are -2.1 favorites? Thanks for your patience also, it's greatly appreciated. I'm kinda new to this so I'm trying to learn as much as I can from all these different threads.

 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Time2Score:

Hey XTC,

So what you're thing is telling me is that Balt should actually be +.82, but since at home they are -2.1 favorites? Thanks for your patience also, it's greatly appreciated. I'm kinda new to this so I'm trying to learn as much as I can from all these different threads.


Yep

Computer thinks on a neutral field (non adj) that they should be +.82 dogs.  Now whether or not HFAdvantage is legit or not is anyone's call.  A team like the dolphins 4-0 on the road so far disprove that in theory.

But yeah, you are correct with your logic.
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