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My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....

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Legend
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Posted: #126
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Captain
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WOW!! Lots of good stuff here!||thumbs_up.gif' border=0>
 
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Posted: #130
Pick winners and you will win. Pick losers and you will lose. That's my theory. GL!
 
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Posted: #131
vanzack, accounting for taxes what's the percentage you need to win to break even?
 
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Posted: #132
can you flip a poor college student gambling for food a grand ....im pretty good aslong as i stay away from that pinnacle casino 
 
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Posted: #133
for the record, durring NCAABB season i would bet about 15-20 games a day
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by wiseplayer:

Pick winners and you will win. Pick losers and you will lose. That's my theory. GL!
 
Why didn't I think of that?
 
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Posted: #135
Quote Originally Posted by xxgambler:

vanzack, accounting for taxes what's the percentage you need to win to break even?


sharp post.
 
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Posted: #136
Living in Vegas I have 10% juice at the books
 
 
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Posted: #137
good read - thanks
 
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Posted: #138
Vanzack - I enjoyed analyzing your thread... I really hope one day I can get a bankroll going like yours because to me it's easier when you have leverage and something to fall back on. I tend to make more errors when I feel like I have to win something or achieve something. When you have leverage with a $50,000 or $100,000 bankroll I would only imagine that it keeps things more simplified. I think the true error occurs when people starting thinking of how much they have offshore... and or will I ever get it all back? It does cross my mind at times... but you have to act like there are no worries...
 
I like your outlook and your system...
 
Legend
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot:

Vanzack - I enjoyed analyzing your thread... I really hope one day I can get a bankroll going like yours because to me it's easier when you have leverage and something to fall back on. I tend to make more errors when I feel like I have to win something or achieve something. When you have leverage with a $50,000 or $100,000 bankroll I would only imagine that it keeps things more simplified. I think the true error occurs when people starting thinking of how much they have offshore... and or will I ever get it all back? It does cross my mind at times... but you have to act like there are no worries...
 
I like your outlook and your system...
 
Just getting back to this thread....
 
But this is a good post.
 
When you are betting with rent or dinner money, you have a much greater tendency to "throw it all on one game" and blow it.  With bigger money it is certainly easier to treat it like a business.
 
I totally agree....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #140
vanzack and crew,
 
excellent thread...I would say my model is very similiar to Vanzack's, with the exception in football I will pay -110 at bookmaker on Sunday afternoon for some games that really jump out at me...other than that, I'd say I make 85 to 90% of my wagers at the exchanges...
 
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Posted: #141
Vanzack,
I saw you utilize your money management system for MLB this year and watched you pick up your 12 units.

I was wondering do you wager on the NHL?
As both are mainly moneyline sports with similar odds, i think it should work.
However, I don't know if i can manage a 55% winning percentage though.

 
Legend
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Posted: #142
might actually be betjam that I play an occasional -110 game (especially on Sunday afternoons during weeks 5-12 in college football when the lines that are off tend to normalize within a couple of hours)...
 
again, a great thread...
 
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Posted: #143
 
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Posted: #144
With Pinnacle and Mansion sayonara to American bettors, It's more important than ever to have a relationship with Matchbook.
Haven't been with Tradesports so I don't know about them.
So I fervently go for lo juice, but I'm also a FCS player . I do my best work there. Unfortunately, the only books offering thse that I know of charge 115.
 
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Posted: #145
Bump for you Odom....


 
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Posted: #146
What a great fucking read. Learned alot I will start saving money for my investment in sports wagering.

Great read Van.

Thanks Hoopstar
 
Captain
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Posted: #147
Yeah, nice to have this thread reappear. Probably not the strategy for all as far as betting percentages go, but the bit about juice is on point.
It's a shame we're pretty much down to Matchbook as far as maximizing on low juice is concerned.
 
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Posted: #148
Good post.  Just signed up for matchbook, on your recommendation.  You're right, why pay more than you need to for the same action?   BOL this MLB season.
 
Legend
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:

Yeah, nice to have this thread reappear. Probably not the strategy for all as far as betting percentages go, but the bit about juice is on point.
It's a shame we're pretty much down to Matchbook as far as maximizing on low juice is concerned.

VERY IMPORTANT AND I WANT TO RESTATE:

THE PERCENTAGES AND AMOUNTS IN THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD WAS AN EXAMPLE!!!!

YOU NEED TO READ THE WHOLE THREAD. 

I was simply saying "if you want to double your money, this is what you need to do...." - not suggesting amounts or percentages - that is up to you.

I was illustrating a point that most people have unrealistic expectations for their desired return.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

VERY IMPORTANT AND I WANT TO RESTATE:

THE PERCENTAGES AND AMOUNTS IN THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD WAS AN EXAMPLE!!!!

YOU NEED TO READ THE WHOLE THREAD. 

I was simply saying "if you want to double your money, this is what you need to do...." - not suggesting amounts or percentages - that is up to you.

I was illustrating a point that most people have unrealistic expectations for their desired return.



Not disagreeing with you, my friend. That's what I meant to say: That for most people, either because their winning percentages are too low or they can't afford to blow their bankroll, they might not be fans of your strategy. Others, I'm sure, would love it.

I personally might consider it down the road as my own strategy or sub-strategy but as an aside, I doubled up my money last season in MLB making 1 unit (1 percent of bankroll for me) bets so it is possible to do this without shelling 10%.
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