99% of my wagers will be Mens Singles Matches on the ATP Tour, with maybe some from Challengers
Lukas Lacko ML, 2.07 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100 for a profit of $107
Cecchinato is just a Challenger scrub running into some hot form from clay which has carried a bit into grass season with a few wins against less then spectacular players. The majority of his matches are played on clay, where his record is usually better and over .500 compared to the other surfaces. In fact this is just his third match on grass in his whole career and I dont expect it to continue against a guy who while is more of a challenger player, then a tour level player, he is much better on grass then inferior players and I think his experience will come through here.
Jiri Vesely -1.5 @ 2.10 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100 for a profit of $110
I rate Jiri Vesely the better out of the two on the grass surface, and again I think he will be harder to break out of the two. It does not bother me that Dzuhmir has a 3-0 head to head and it is not worth looking at almost as it has not been as dominant of a matchup as the scores have suggested. I expect Jiri Vesely to continue his good form here, and I haven't exactly been convinced by Dzhumir here as the odds suggest so i'll side with Vesely here.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
99% of my wagers will be Mens Singles Matches on the ATP Tour, with maybe some from Challengers
Lukas Lacko ML, 2.07 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100 for a profit of $107
Cecchinato is just a Challenger scrub running into some hot form from clay which has carried a bit into grass season with a few wins against less then spectacular players. The majority of his matches are played on clay, where his record is usually better and over .500 compared to the other surfaces. In fact this is just his third match on grass in his whole career and I dont expect it to continue against a guy who while is more of a challenger player, then a tour level player, he is much better on grass then inferior players and I think his experience will come through here.
Jiri Vesely -1.5 @ 2.10 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100 for a profit of $110
I rate Jiri Vesely the better out of the two on the grass surface, and again I think he will be harder to break out of the two. It does not bother me that Dzuhmir has a 3-0 head to head and it is not worth looking at almost as it has not been as dominant of a matchup as the scores have suggested. I expect Jiri Vesely to continue his good form here, and I haven't exactly been convinced by Dzhumir here as the odds suggest so i'll side with Vesely here.
Nicholas Jarry vs Filip Krajinovic - Over 37 Games @ 1.98 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I'll take advantage of the lower line in this matchup as while it is possible one may win in straight sets I think it's highly unlikely. Neither player is notable on grass with both players having to qualify to make it to the Main Draw of Wimbledon at various stages of their careers. He had a good 3 set hit out against eventual champion Mischa Zverev at Nottingham and is enjoying a career best 13-10 on the circuit, mainly because of his form on clay and some on Hardcourts.
Krajinovic is playing his first game since the Miami Masters, also not a notable grass player having been in the main draw last in 2015. His year to date is still good (9-6) but he has not played in the last two slams as well so his lack of 5 set matches might show here.
This is a perfect first-round matchup for both players as Nicolas Jarry takes on a player who lacks match time while Filip Krajinovic takes on a player who has a got a relatively weaker game for grass. Hard to predict either way but if both players tough it out, it could go to 5.
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(1 - 1 - 0), +$7
Nicholas Jarry vs Filip Krajinovic - Over 37 Games @ 1.98 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I'll take advantage of the lower line in this matchup as while it is possible one may win in straight sets I think it's highly unlikely. Neither player is notable on grass with both players having to qualify to make it to the Main Draw of Wimbledon at various stages of their careers. He had a good 3 set hit out against eventual champion Mischa Zverev at Nottingham and is enjoying a career best 13-10 on the circuit, mainly because of his form on clay and some on Hardcourts.
Krajinovic is playing his first game since the Miami Masters, also not a notable grass player having been in the main draw last in 2015. His year to date is still good (9-6) but he has not played in the last two slams as well so his lack of 5 set matches might show here.
This is a perfect first-round matchup for both players as Nicolas Jarry takes on a player who lacks match time while Filip Krajinovic takes on a player who has a got a relatively weaker game for grass. Hard to predict either way but if both players tough it out, it could go to 5.
Mackenzie McDonald -1.5 Games @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I have liked what I have seen from McDonald this year, most notably on HardCourts but I have seen enough mettle here on grass that makes me believe he can win this first round matchup. He's won four matches on grass this year after winning seven last year.
Berankis to me is more of an indoor hard courts guy, and he has only made it to the second round of Wimbledon twice in 2010 and 2015. McDonald had his best slam form at the Australian Open this year and I think he's gotten more comfortable in the longer matches as time has gone on.
I expect a hard fought match here but McDonald the eventual winner.
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Mackenzie McDonald -1.5 Games @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I have liked what I have seen from McDonald this year, most notably on HardCourts but I have seen enough mettle here on grass that makes me believe he can win this first round matchup. He's won four matches on grass this year after winning seven last year.
Berankis to me is more of an indoor hard courts guy, and he has only made it to the second round of Wimbledon twice in 2010 and 2015. McDonald had his best slam form at the Australian Open this year and I think he's gotten more comfortable in the longer matches as time has gone on.
I expect a hard fought match here but McDonald the eventual winner.
It's hard to back against these young crop of new breed aussies because they try hard but clearly lack talent and skill to compete with the best players at a consistent level.
That's why I like Querrey to take out this match comfortably and i'll take the decent odds at that price too. There is a chance it could be 4, 4 and 4 but I think Querrey is a cut above the opponents Thompson (who has struggled at slam level) has played.
Querrey has also had his best results at Wimbledon in the last two years disposing of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray so I think this ones a comfortable win for him.
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Sam Querrey -6 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
It's hard to back against these young crop of new breed aussies because they try hard but clearly lack talent and skill to compete with the best players at a consistent level.
That's why I like Querrey to take out this match comfortably and i'll take the decent odds at that price too. There is a chance it could be 4, 4 and 4 but I think Querrey is a cut above the opponents Thompson (who has struggled at slam level) has played.
Querrey has also had his best results at Wimbledon in the last two years disposing of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray so I think this ones a comfortable win for him.
Coric seemingly came out of nowhere to win Halle, as well as beating Roger Federer. Medvedev has had previous success on grass but wasn't as good this year. Despite an impressive win against Wawrinka last year I think Coric's form is too good to ignore in both this matchup and on the whole.
Yannick Maden +5.5 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
John Isner had a good hitout at RG but this is his first tournament back since then. I've liked what I've seen in Maden and think playing against a serve in Isner he will hold his own and potentially take a set, and advantage of Isners lack of time on grass.
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Borna Coric -5 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Coric seemingly came out of nowhere to win Halle, as well as beating Roger Federer. Medvedev has had previous success on grass but wasn't as good this year. Despite an impressive win against Wawrinka last year I think Coric's form is too good to ignore in both this matchup and on the whole.
Yannick Maden +5.5 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
John Isner had a good hitout at RG but this is his first tournament back since then. I've liked what I've seen in Maden and think playing against a serve in Isner he will hold his own and potentially take a set, and advantage of Isners lack of time on grass.
I realised Borna Coric was a mistake pretty quickly going into the match, it was a risk riding on form and one I was willing to take considering his opponent was also trash, but this guy also lost to John Millman in Australia in 1R too despite being far more talented.
Was disappointed Yannick Maden got off to a slow start despite not looking likely to break he was more then matching it in the 2nd and third sets. Again despite grass favouring isners serve I didnt mind the risk considering he hadn't played since RG.
The others were pretty straight forward. I wasn't too fussed with McDonalds early struggles, the same thing happened in Australia.
Anyway on the day and all up together:
4 - 3, +$90
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I realised Borna Coric was a mistake pretty quickly going into the match, it was a risk riding on form and one I was willing to take considering his opponent was also trash, but this guy also lost to John Millman in Australia in 1R too despite being far more talented.
Was disappointed Yannick Maden got off to a slow start despite not looking likely to break he was more then matching it in the 2nd and third sets. Again despite grass favouring isners serve I didnt mind the risk considering he hadn't played since RG.
The others were pretty straight forward. I wasn't too fussed with McDonalds early struggles, the same thing happened in Australia.
Jiri Vesely who has found some good form in this grass season takes on Florian Mayer, who has won two games on the ATP Tour to date, both being on grass. Despite a surprise 6-2 6-2 win against Richard Gasquet (who lost to straight sets in Monfils) on opening day he has otherwise not had the year he had hoped for and at age 34 perhaps just happy to be here to collect the Round 1 check for appearing in the main draw of a Grand Slam. Both guys don't mind playing on grass with their serves but I think Jiri Vesely showed enough form to win this one rather comfortably, and his record at Wimbledon of having never exited the first round (to date) gives me confidence he will get past the first round and cover the line. Whether it be in 3 sets or 5. Florian Mayer made the QF last in 2012 but since then he has only matched to get one "win" which was a retirement forfeit from Viktor Troicki after leading the first set 6-1. I guess it could be argued that every line can be seen as a trap, especially with what we saw with guys like Coric yesterday, and Vesely only had the one warm up event in Antalya but he is playing a much older player who has declined greatly over the years and will be relying on his serve more then anything.
Taro Daniel/Fabio Fognini over 37 Games @ 1.917 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I like this total because you can never be sure what you are going to get with Fabio Fognini (line moved from 6 to 5.5 overnight) but with that said I can't say I am overly confident in Taro Daniel's ability to win a match but I certainly think he will put in the effort to make a competition. In his previous two years he lost to Mikhail Kukushkin and Juan Monaco, both in four sets and lost in the first round last week who Guillermo Garcia Lopez who has been playing alright. Fognini is jumping straight from clay to grass (although that did not work in our favour against Isner) Fognini is certainly not known for his grass court play despite his game being surprisingly ok on it. Last year he actually had a good run to the 3R even going four sets with Andy Murray (who later cut short his season) but as mentioned the guy rarely concentrates for 4-5 sets when it gets into a dogfight. I think the tease on a possible 4 set match is certainly worth wagering on in this instance when it comes to the above player.
Federico Delbonis/Feliciano Lopez under 34.5 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I always think twice before backing an inconsistent mental midget like Lopez, but he has had a good hit out here on the grass surface losing to Nick Kyrgios twice in hard fought matches. He's playing a guy who is 0-7 lifetime on grass (0-3 at Wimbledon) in his professional career (more of a clay guy) and while he's had some well fought matches in Wimbledon I cant back him (initially considered it before changing my mind) against a guy who likes playing on grass despite getting older. I'll trust Lopez's form for the time being and hope my show of faith is rewarded.
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Day 2: Round 1 (128)
Jiri Vesely -3.5 @ 1.961 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Jiri Vesely who has found some good form in this grass season takes on Florian Mayer, who has won two games on the ATP Tour to date, both being on grass. Despite a surprise 6-2 6-2 win against Richard Gasquet (who lost to straight sets in Monfils) on opening day he has otherwise not had the year he had hoped for and at age 34 perhaps just happy to be here to collect the Round 1 check for appearing in the main draw of a Grand Slam. Both guys don't mind playing on grass with their serves but I think Jiri Vesely showed enough form to win this one rather comfortably, and his record at Wimbledon of having never exited the first round (to date) gives me confidence he will get past the first round and cover the line. Whether it be in 3 sets or 5. Florian Mayer made the QF last in 2012 but since then he has only matched to get one "win" which was a retirement forfeit from Viktor Troicki after leading the first set 6-1. I guess it could be argued that every line can be seen as a trap, especially with what we saw with guys like Coric yesterday, and Vesely only had the one warm up event in Antalya but he is playing a much older player who has declined greatly over the years and will be relying on his serve more then anything.
Taro Daniel/Fabio Fognini over 37 Games @ 1.917 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I like this total because you can never be sure what you are going to get with Fabio Fognini (line moved from 6 to 5.5 overnight) but with that said I can't say I am overly confident in Taro Daniel's ability to win a match but I certainly think he will put in the effort to make a competition. In his previous two years he lost to Mikhail Kukushkin and Juan Monaco, both in four sets and lost in the first round last week who Guillermo Garcia Lopez who has been playing alright. Fognini is jumping straight from clay to grass (although that did not work in our favour against Isner) Fognini is certainly not known for his grass court play despite his game being surprisingly ok on it. Last year he actually had a good run to the 3R even going four sets with Andy Murray (who later cut short his season) but as mentioned the guy rarely concentrates for 4-5 sets when it gets into a dogfight. I think the tease on a possible 4 set match is certainly worth wagering on in this instance when it comes to the above player.
Federico Delbonis/Feliciano Lopez under 34.5 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I always think twice before backing an inconsistent mental midget like Lopez, but he has had a good hit out here on the grass surface losing to Nick Kyrgios twice in hard fought matches. He's playing a guy who is 0-7 lifetime on grass (0-3 at Wimbledon) in his professional career (more of a clay guy) and while he's had some well fought matches in Wimbledon I cant back him (initially considered it before changing my mind) against a guy who likes playing on grass despite getting older. I'll trust Lopez's form for the time being and hope my show of faith is rewarded.
Francis Tiafoe/Fernando Verdasco Over 40.5 Games @ 1.909 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Neither player has been particularly fantastic on grass this season (moreso Verdasco) but if he is saving himself for Wimbledon then I expect it to be an at least four set match with a tiebreak or two and looking at a hard fought battle. Verdasco has gotten himself into plenty of long dogfights at Wimbledon in previous years and doesn't mind coming back from 2 sets down. Tiafoe with his serve I expect also to put up a good fight and I think we can see one that goes the distance here.
Pierre Hughes-Herbert +3.5 @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
This is an interestingly small line considering Mischas title win last week. Considering what happened to Coric as well as Mischa's lacklustre Wimbledon results (beat an effortless Tomic in 1R last year) I think we'll back Hughes Herbert and see how he handles it.
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Francis Tiafoe/Fernando Verdasco Over 40.5 Games @ 1.909 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Neither player has been particularly fantastic on grass this season (moreso Verdasco) but if he is saving himself for Wimbledon then I expect it to be an at least four set match with a tiebreak or two and looking at a hard fought battle. Verdasco has gotten himself into plenty of long dogfights at Wimbledon in previous years and doesn't mind coming back from 2 sets down. Tiafoe with his serve I expect also to put up a good fight and I think we can see one that goes the distance here.
Pierre Hughes-Herbert +3.5 @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
This is an interestingly small line considering Mischas title win last week. Considering what happened to Coric as well as Mischa's lacklustre Wimbledon results (beat an effortless Tomic in 1R last year) I think we'll back Hughes Herbert and see how he handles it.
Thank you! It seemed Hughes Herbert paid off in my beliefs despite being the least confident play out of my wagers. I was more confident in Vesely and it seems like he squeaked through for the most part.
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Thank you! It seemed Hughes Herbert paid off in my beliefs despite being the least confident play out of my wagers. I was more confident in Vesely and it seems like he squeaked through for the most part.
Lucas Pouille/Denis Novak Over 37 Games @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Lucas Pouille plays a qualifier here in Denis Novak for Round 2. This is actually his first time being through to the 2R at Wimbledon after first round exits. Nonetheless he was pretty impressive in his first round match against Kudla who had picked up some good matchplay and form prior to Wimbledon but is not a known player to show up in the slams. D Novak beat Bachinger and Donald Young in qualifying with ease and was fortunate to draw a lucky loser in the first round. But with that said I think I am confident enough in what I've seen from him to make this an at least four set match between the two.
I am a bit surprised at the odds here that they are not flipped, as I favour McDonald in this matchup. He showed some good form leading into Wimbledon beating Andreas Seppi and Alex Bolt but fell short to the hard serving Jeremy Chardy. As written in a previous post here I rated him higher then Berankis and likewise I'm confident enough to back him again. Nicolas Jarry isn't a known grass guy and it took him four sets to beat Filip Krajinovic who had not played for a significant portion in time. This is his first time making it past the first round of a slam in his fifth attempt and I think McDonald will be a much sterner challenge then his previous opponent.
Sam Querrey/Sergiy Stakhovsky under 38 Games 1.961 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I've picked this particular market as a bit of a safety blanket but I still think Querrey will win in straight sets but I've taken the best of both worlds at still decent (IMO) odds. Sam Querrey was a few classes above Jordan Thompson as I posted in my round 1 write up about them and while Stakhovsky is a tougher opponent I still think Querrey will be too good. He had some cracks from time to time as the match wore on but he was never not in control of that match. Despite beating Roger Federer at Wimbledon several years ago he still has only made it to the 3R twice in 2013 and 14 and I think Querrey's desire will be much bigger as he aims to defend his points from last year.
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Lucas Pouille/Denis Novak Over 37 Games @ 1.90 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Lucas Pouille plays a qualifier here in Denis Novak for Round 2. This is actually his first time being through to the 2R at Wimbledon after first round exits. Nonetheless he was pretty impressive in his first round match against Kudla who had picked up some good matchplay and form prior to Wimbledon but is not a known player to show up in the slams. D Novak beat Bachinger and Donald Young in qualifying with ease and was fortunate to draw a lucky loser in the first round. But with that said I think I am confident enough in what I've seen from him to make this an at least four set match between the two.
I am a bit surprised at the odds here that they are not flipped, as I favour McDonald in this matchup. He showed some good form leading into Wimbledon beating Andreas Seppi and Alex Bolt but fell short to the hard serving Jeremy Chardy. As written in a previous post here I rated him higher then Berankis and likewise I'm confident enough to back him again. Nicolas Jarry isn't a known grass guy and it took him four sets to beat Filip Krajinovic who had not played for a significant portion in time. This is his first time making it past the first round of a slam in his fifth attempt and I think McDonald will be a much sterner challenge then his previous opponent.
Sam Querrey/Sergiy Stakhovsky under 38 Games 1.961 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
I've picked this particular market as a bit of a safety blanket but I still think Querrey will win in straight sets but I've taken the best of both worlds at still decent (IMO) odds. Sam Querrey was a few classes above Jordan Thompson as I posted in my round 1 write up about them and while Stakhovsky is a tougher opponent I still think Querrey will be too good. He had some cracks from time to time as the match wore on but he was never not in control of that match. Despite beating Roger Federer at Wimbledon several years ago he still has only made it to the 3R twice in 2013 and 14 and I think Querrey's desire will be much bigger as he aims to defend his points from last year.
Marin Cilic/Guido Pella under 30.5 Games @ 1.917 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
A guy playing some of his best tennis atm against a guy who prefers clay and isn't known for playing on grass. I'll side with the vastly superior Cilic here. He was solid in his first round match but had a few scares on serve. That said he didn't look like losing. Despite turning pro in 2011, Pella is appearing in the 2R of Wimbledon for the first time and only in his 3rd appearence in the main draw (not counting the year he attempted to qualify but missed out). Pella's grass court campaign has not been fantastic whatsoever despite some wins and his first round win was against Jason Kubler, a junior hyped up at the same time Tomic was but his career has stalled because of injuries. He was playing in Futures in Australia before coming here to qualify and it still took four close sets for Pella to beat him.
Jared Donaldson +2.5 @ 2.03 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Although the data doesn't suggest it so far in this matchup to date I rate Donaldson as a higher likely winner then Stefanos. Even though I am going off form here first I felt Donaldson was more in control of his match then Stefanos who I rate will be a fantastic grass court player one day, and future slam winner BUT I'll take those odds with Donaldson. He beat a guy whos been on the tour a while (albeit not a great grass guy) pretty comfortably and mentally he got better as the match went on. I rate the American here.
Kohlscriebber/Muller over 42 Games @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
To be honest not much seperates these guys as both can win on their day. Both have found a second win on grass and Wimbledon winning their first round matches. With their serves we'll see hopefully a couple of tiebreaks and a five set match. Probably the least confident of my plays but 42 is pretty low for these two guys who can be hard to break at times, so we'll take those odds and total.
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Marin Cilic/Guido Pella under 30.5 Games @ 1.917 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
A guy playing some of his best tennis atm against a guy who prefers clay and isn't known for playing on grass. I'll side with the vastly superior Cilic here. He was solid in his first round match but had a few scares on serve. That said he didn't look like losing. Despite turning pro in 2011, Pella is appearing in the 2R of Wimbledon for the first time and only in his 3rd appearence in the main draw (not counting the year he attempted to qualify but missed out). Pella's grass court campaign has not been fantastic whatsoever despite some wins and his first round win was against Jason Kubler, a junior hyped up at the same time Tomic was but his career has stalled because of injuries. He was playing in Futures in Australia before coming here to qualify and it still took four close sets for Pella to beat him.
Jared Donaldson +2.5 @ 2.03 (Pinnacle) Stake: $100
Although the data doesn't suggest it so far in this matchup to date I rate Donaldson as a higher likely winner then Stefanos. Even though I am going off form here first I felt Donaldson was more in control of his match then Stefanos who I rate will be a fantastic grass court player one day, and future slam winner BUT I'll take those odds with Donaldson. He beat a guy whos been on the tour a while (albeit not a great grass guy) pretty comfortably and mentally he got better as the match went on. I rate the American here.
Kohlscriebber/Muller over 42 Games @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
To be honest not much seperates these guys as both can win on their day. Both have found a second win on grass and Wimbledon winning their first round matches. With their serves we'll see hopefully a couple of tiebreaks and a five set match. Probably the least confident of my plays but 42 is pretty low for these two guys who can be hard to break at times, so we'll take those odds and total.
Rain delays are always annoying but still a good start to the night. Marin Cilic being down a break in the third set is the biggest concern so hopefully he comes back to finish it off as quickly as possible. Jared Donaldson is down two sets to one but up a break in the third set. And Muller/Kohlscriebber is in it's second tiebreak with Kohlscriebber potentially going up 2-0 sets but still an ok spot if Muller can grab a set.
With the completed matches we're at: 11 - 4, +$655.1
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Rain delays are always annoying but still a good start to the night. Marin Cilic being down a break in the third set is the biggest concern so hopefully he comes back to finish it off as quickly as possible. Jared Donaldson is down two sets to one but up a break in the third set. And Muller/Kohlscriebber is in it's second tiebreak with Kohlscriebber potentially going up 2-0 sets but still an ok spot if Muller can grab a set.
With the completed matches we're at: 11 - 4, +$655.1
I was only following on Flashscore, but it seemed like they stopped and started the Cilic match two or three times. And the final time was only one game? Seems like terrible execution on their part and it really seemed to disrupt the rhythm Cilic had built up (not surprisingly).
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I was only following on Flashscore, but it seemed like they stopped and started the Cilic match two or three times. And the final time was only one game? Seems like terrible execution on their part and it really seemed to disrupt the rhythm Cilic had built up (not surprisingly).
Yeah from what I saw he looked like he was in a rush to finish the game then struggled with rhythm and got broken right before the delays. Was a bit annoyed considering he's still a good shot to cover the line, and hes been dominant and didnt really have much trouble, but I'm hoping he does his best to avoid a 4th set to make the under hit (even a 7-6 tb means we get the under)
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Yeah from what I saw he looked like he was in a rush to finish the game then struggled with rhythm and got broken right before the delays. Was a bit annoyed considering he's still a good shot to cover the line, and hes been dominant and didnt really have much trouble, but I'm hoping he does his best to avoid a 4th set to make the under hit (even a 7-6 tb means we get the under)
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