2018 Season (rest of) Tennis Picks

any picks for the tomorrow's matches? Really appreciate the analysis

So still 3 pending overnight bets that were paused because of rain. Still pretty up in the air, nothing home yet one in danger of not winning.

As for today

Julien Benneteau/Francis Tiafoe Over 39.5 Games @ 1.934 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I dont have a distinguished favoured player even though Tiafoe made a good go of beating Verdasco in the first round who can be either rocks or diamonds while Benneteau beat Fuscovics in straight sets as well. As I posted in the matchup with Verdasco I expect another tight game here with tiebreaks and most hopefully four sets. Both guys will also be looking to extend their run here (especially Benneteau who has had a lot of bad luck in 5 sets) and I don't think either player will be an easybeat.

Alex De Minaur -1.5 @ 1.961 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I will side with the player who has shown better grass form despite the capabilities of the big serving Hughes Herbert. I think the spot of fading Hughes after he beat a recent grass title winner in Mischa Zverev last week might not be a bad idea as he is due for a letdown. Hughes Herbert is more of a doubles player (and has had plenty of success in doubles) while he has only made it to the third round of Wimbledon once in 2016. De Minaur is a bit of a newbie when it comes to Grand Slam main draws but ill back his form prior to Wimbledon while the let down of a comfortable win for Hughes Herbert shows it's hands in this match up.

Horacio Zeballos/Novak Djokovic under 27.5 Games, 2.03 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

This is a bit of a mismatch with a clay guy who has just won his 3rd match on grass (against a fellow clay court countryman) against Novak Djokovic who has been solid at RG and on grass since returning. There is not as much worth saying in this matchup that others don't probably already think other then I really like Novak to take care of business here.

Nick Kyrgios -5 @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100
Was not greatly impressed with Kyrgios' efforts in his round match against the big serving Denis Istomin, who played well IMO, but I think he bounces back here against Robin Haase, neither known for performing in 5 sets or on grass where he has only made it to the third round once in 2011. He lost in the 2R in his warmup events but Kyrgios is a class above the players he has played and I think it will be difficult for Haase to break him here. There are always question marks over Kyrgios' effort and mental state but i'll back him at the above line to get the job done.

Simone Bolleli/Fabio Fognini over 36 Games @ 1.943 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Both these guys have played plenty of doubles together and know each others games very well. I actually favour Bolleli on grass with his style of play against Fognini's inconsistencies I definately dont expect a 3 set match here and think both guys will take it to each other with the opportunity to make it to the 3R. It was also a fair effort to beat a good serve in Cuevas in 3 sets. Hopefully Fognini continues to be a tad inconsistent.

Jiri Vesely -1.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Like the previous round I am siding with Vesely here in superior form both in general and on grass. Schwartzmans game does not suit grass whatsoever where he is 0-7 lifetime on the pro circuit and 1-3 at Wimbledon. He had a fair run on clay and lost a tight game to Lukas Lacko who played well that week. But with that said I think Wimbledon is not a big priority for him and I think it'll show in this matchup despite being the 14th seed. Normally not a fan of backing the scrubbier players but I was impressed he bounced back from dropping a set against Mayer so i'll let the run continue.

Good luck 

Was a good day for todays picks going 4-2 but got killed by the ones that finished yesterday, with Kohlscriebber squeaking through in three tiebreaks, and Donaldson losing in 5 after being up 3-1 in the fifth set. So that brings us a tad down from yesterday.

15-9, +$548.7

Keep it going brutha, hoping you got something for us with tomorrow's matches! 

Round 3, Mens Singles

Philipp Kohlscriebber +3.5 @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

This matchup features two guys who get themselves into serving contests and multiple sets. But with Andersons lack of form since the Rome Masters despite holding a 4-0 H2H makes me think that Kohlscriebber who squeaked through in three tiebreakers against 2017 QF Gilles Muller has more then a fighting shot in this match. With the odds on offer and with how hard he's been to break so far at Wimbledon we'll take that price.

Sam Querrey -3 @ 1.862 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Sam Querrey -2.5 Set Handicap @ 3.83 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $50

Taking a stab here at something that has some clear value based off the form of these two players. Querrey is IMO again underrated in this matchup and it's no secret based off my previous write ups I rate him here against the inferior players again. I feel the odds may reflect a bit of reputation from Monfils who beat an all sorts Gasquet before struggling to a clay specialist grinder in Lorenzi. Despite some ordinary form at the slams Querrey has shown up at Wimbledon and while Monfils had a nice showing the week prior and in general this year I think Querrey will be too good on grass where he has been hard to break.

Mackenzie McDonald ML @ 2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

There is not as much to say this time around and as I have done in the past picked what I think is a good spot. Huge win for Pella to come back from 0-2 down against one of the favourites who maybe struggled mentally but I liked McDonald resolved despite fighting it out for 5 sets. I think it's going to be a let down spot for a non grass specialist and I think McDonald can take advantage of it.

Federer/Lennard Struff Under 30 Games @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Federer has looked comfortable in his matches so far at Wimbledon where he has won 8 titles. Whilst previous slam records suggest a closer match, ill back Federer to make light work against Struff who is ok on grass but several notches below Federer.

Dennis Novak +6 @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Dennis Novak has looked solid on grass and with the line/odds on offer I am more then happy to take a stab. Was really happy with how Millman made a good effort at trying to break through the Raonic serve but was unlucky and unsuccessful as he was just outserved. I think Dennis Novak also has a shot at making this game a close one, and with the line on offer with the potential to take a set off him while holding hes own is more then just a slight possibility IMO. 

18-12 +$724.70

Disappointing results with Querrey but pretty happy with the rest otherwise. One more day of action before we hit the Quarter Finals.

Adrian Mannarino +8.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Roger Federer faces Adrian Mannarino for the 7th time, with a dominant 6-0 h2h record, and only dropping one set, but all bar one of those matches was after 2013. With the odds on offer I think it reflects a bit of value that based off his form so far and prior to Wimbledon he would make more of a match of this. Normally it's easy to think the other way is an easy winner but for some reason this time around, I feel different.

Mackenzie McDonald +6 @ 1.862 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Sometimes it feels like we are backing the same guys until they drop out eh? heh. But again with the line on offer I like McDonald in this matchup. Other then a lopsided win over Liam Broady Raonic has played a few sterner opponents who have put in a good stellar effort, only to squeak through. Although this is just as equal fade on Raonic as well as backing McDonald again who could yet again be a sterner challenge for the big server. Raonic is holding his own well but he hasn't had many big moments the last few games where opponents have made errors against him. But we'll see.

Kevin Anderson -2 @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

With Monfils' somewhat surprise interesting win over big serving Querrey, I struggle to see him backing that up considering this is his best result at Wimbledon in his 14 year career. I think the small line at the odds offered presents some good value for Anderson who looked hard to beat and broke down Kohlscriebber who himself looked pretty good up until he came up against Anderson. I'll back the guy in better form with the better serve in a letdown spot for Monfils.

Jiri Vesely +7 @ 1.961 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Vesely is having a great tournament at the moment backing up his good form on grass where he has looked tough to beat. His win against Fognini was impressive. So too his other wins here. Nadal was in all sorts against Kukushkin and struggled for any sort of momentum and rhythm. I was not surprised that De Minaur was a mismatch against him with Nadal being able to physically overpower him but he won't be able to do the same here. Vesely has a big serve and a physical game and on a surface that relies on finishing points quickly I like Vesely to make a match of this.

Not really a womens tennis bettor myself, maybe in the finals of a slam or something, but I prefer to focus on one side of things personally.

Exactly! A reverse sweep. Actually it was a pity I talked myself out of Federer before preferring the under result, happens I guess.

18-16 +$324.70

Novak Djokovic -2.5 Set Handicap Winner @ 2.08 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

As of now I have Djokovic as a potential Wimbledon winner, and finalist on that bottom half of the draw. Tough ask to have to play Nadal or Del Potro next as well. But from what I've seen even though the slam results haven't gone his way since collecting his French Open and winning 4 slams in a row I feel this year it is more because he is losing games rather then his opponent winning them. You look at games like the Chung 4R match where he netted a crosscourt forehand volley to gift him the break at 6-5 in the second set or that 4th set tiebreak against Cecchinato where he seemingly should have won but UEs killed him, I think there was one that would have given him the set or mini break where it just flung off the frame of his racquet. It's unfortunate but it happens.
As opposed to the year before where his opponents Denis Istomin swung his racquet and served unbelievable and Thiem was just too powerful and he could not match him on clay.

What I am seeing now is a more determined Djokovic. He withstood ridiculous booing and taunting from the British fans during his match with Edmund and even British fans making noises at various points during his service games. He even had a few calls go against him in particular the famous double bounce that would have given him a break. Even in his final against Cilic at Queens he did not look poor. 

So with that said and with Nishikori matching up well for him I'm going to take him to continue showing the form he has had here at Wimbledon. He had an easy first two matches but the last two have been against form players who have also won well. I think it was a good effort to beat Kyrgios and Gulbis but I think Djokovic is a tougher test for him and I look forward to seeing them play on grass together.

Roger Federer/Kevin Anderson Over 34.5 Games @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I think this will be Roger's first real test as he has not really been pushed by players who have been easy to break. Kevin Anderson as this tournament has shown is not an easy player to break. He has played good opponents and opponents who fare well on grass. He has bought his game to Wimbledon in the past pushing Novak Djokovic (eventual champion) to five sets after winning the first two sets. He also had break points in that 5th set to win the match but failed to convert them.

Roger Federer has a knack of putting players in their place, ones that go on a nice run. And his h2h against Anderson indicates this. But I think Anderson has played better this time around and with a bit of a jolt in his serves it could be a real danger match for Federer to drop a set. Or even win a close one.

Milos Raonic -1.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

This matchup will be hard to predict with both guys who have big serves, but I have given the edge to Raonic because I think he is more likely to break. And I feel Isner hasn't really played anyone that has looked like threatening his serve despite an impressive three set win against Tsitpasis. Raonic has been here to the QF and is looking more and more confident in each game he plays. I see no real value taking the line so i'll take the extra 30 odd cents on the small handicap and hope its enough. 

Juan Martin Del Potro +4.5 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Juan Marin Del Potro ML @ 3.29 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $50

Despite no warm up matches and coming off a historic 11th Roland Garros title Nadal has moved through relatively easily to the QF of Wimbledon. To me personally, like Federer I dont think Nadal has been pushed and I think Del Potro will be up for it. It is their 3rd meeting on grass and previous results show it is not as easy match for Nadal as it is on clay or even Hard Court where Del Potro is favoured. There may be lingering concerns that Del Potro has not had his days rest after playing his match with Gilles Simon but to me he is the type of player that needs to consistently keep his rhythm up and whether fatique is a factor we will see. He's played plenty of long matches in the past but I feel like this is an ok spot to take an upset and the bookies seem to think it is possible too.

20 - 19, +$266.20

Close, but not close enough. Thought the Djokovic violation was clear nonsense also which came after he missed break point chances and led to him being distracted. As always the umpires discretion is usually inconsistent. Oh well, moving on to the last three mens matches.

John Isner Moneyline @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $200

Well I certainly made a good call on Anderson making a match out of it, hah. Probably was the match of the tournament for mine IMO. Had a bit of a soft spot for him after he got injured so it's good to see him back on the horse. Though Isner has looked more unhittable I think. I've underrated him and it's paid dearly. But I wonder how much legs Anderson will have from that match the other day and whether mentally he left it all out there in his QF and whether he has enough now. I was initially likening to riding his form because he's played very well but this time I'm going to side with John Isner. He made Raonic look ordinary and I think if there is someone to crack first I think it will be Anderson.

Novak Djokovic Moneyline @ 1.952 

Stake: $200

Nadal made a good go of beating Del Potro and could live with getting that one wrong. But I think Djokovic presents a whole more pain of a matchup on grass on Nadal compared to other surfaces. Ill try and be brief with why I think so :P

For those that remember their Wimbledon Final from 2011, and the French Open Final will know why things favour Djokovic. And no, the fact these matches were 6-7 years ago is irrelevant. Those that remember Djokovic running out of steam against Nadal in 2007 were probably not surprised that he dominated him in that 2011 Wimbledon Final.

The reason why I compared the 2012 French Open Final to the Wimbledon 2011 Final, and why the script may be similar this time around is as follows...

Nadal plays a game which basically states straight up "I am better than anyone at hitting balls into positions where you can't attack me without taking huge risks, and I can do it longer than anyone". Watch the angle that his balls bounce as they cross the baseline. He gets them jumping up near vertical. So a normal player (on clay) has to take huge risks because they know they can't compete with his game. Players that don't have an alternate game (Ferrer) just get chopped. So for Nadal this will work against, effectively, nearly everyone bar Novak.

When the rain came in on that day, Novak completely changed his shot selection to the sort of game he plays on hard court. Effectively he's trying to open the court up on nearly every shot even if it means being exposed. The reason why it's so effective is because the ball is bouncing lower now so when Nadal tries to take advantage and 'rip' the ball away the spin just doesn't have the same effect. So Novak feels safer hitting the ball to open up the court because he knows he can't be hurt. He's getting his body behind the ball so that he can use the ground reactive force in his legs to get the extra power. And he knows he can do it because Nadal can't take him out of court as much, so he's willing to do the extra running

Djokovic usually wants to take those risks because it opens the court up and he's fast enough to get to Nadal's response. On a dry clay court though Djokovic's flat attacking balls get held up and then the spin from Nadal just puts the ball way too far out of court for it to be a winning strategy.

As the court gets wet, Djokovic's flat attacking shots still get held up, but Nadal's response isn't as devastating because a wet ball doesn't bounce the same. So now Djokovic is willing to take the risk because he knows he can get back across the court and in doing so he's opened up the whole court for both players which is where he is significantly better than Nadal.

And Nadal knows it too. It's exactly the same as their Wimbledon final. And it's why the media made a big deal about him wanting to suspend play. Effectively Novak uses aggressive movement, aggressive shot selection. And he's got enough speed and endurance to do it for long periods of time. Nadal knows and he hates it heh.

Nice analysis Jesse. good luck.

Wimbledon SW19, Womens Singles, Final

Angelique Kerber vs Serena Williams

Totak Score: Over 22 Games @ 2.00

Stake: $300