This is the tournament I am focusing on this week. Good luck to you guys. Have not seen any futures prices yet. Will add some thoughts on that when I see them.
This is the third year that the ATP tour stops in Bogota as a transition to the summer hard courts. Top seed Ivo Karlovic has been able to switch from the grass in Newport to the high altitude of Bogota nicely in each of the 1st two years that this 250 level event has been held. Karlovic won the inaugural event in 2013 before losing in the Final last year to Bernard Tomic. The high altitude of Bogota does lend itself to success for big servers as Karlovic has proven. Last year, Ivo threw down 39 aces in the three set Finals loss to Tomic. The troubled Aussie is back in Bogota this year following his much publicized arrest for a loud party this past week at a Miami hotel. Tomic is the 2nd seed this year. Rounding out the seeds are Adrian Mannarino, Victor Estrella Burgos, Marcos Baghdatis, Sam Groth, Malek Jaziri & James Ward. The intriguing part of this year’s tournament will be how players transition quickly to the altitude and the surface change with many of them playing on grass most recently or in Davis Cup action over the weekend.
As a 250 level event, seeds are of course susceptible to early upsets. Last year though there was just one seed that lost their first match. In the first year of the event in 2013 however, half of the eight seeds lost their first match. Let’s take a look at this year’s seeds and the what the chances are that they might be losing early in this tournament.
#1 Ivo Karlovic Normally playing a Sunday Final on grass and then turning aorund relatively quickly to altitude and a new surface would be difficult. Karlovic however has proven to be able to handle those circumstances. Last year, Karlovic lost the Newport Final, but was able to make a Finals run in Bogota before losing to Tomic. In 2013, he lost in the QFs in Newport and then came to Bogota and claimed the title. This year it will be similar to last year as he works from the Sunday Final to a 2nd round match against either Pere Riba or wild card Daniel Elahi Galan. One difference this year could be arm pain that Ivo has been experiencing in Newport. There could be a chance that he decides to skip Bogota depending on how he feels Sunday. If not, then I would definitely monitor him in Bogota as a potential upset victim at some point with that arm issue.
#2 Bernard Tomic Tomic played Newport last week and crashed out in his opener. That came on the heels of his post-Wimbledon blow up on Tennis Australia. This time, he’s got the baggage from his Miami arrest following him. He gets a bye and then faces either local Alejandro Gonzalez or Adrian Menendez-Maceiras. Gonzalez was a tough out last year in Bogota, making the quarter finals. With Tomic’s mental state still a question, give Gonzalez a shot at an upset if that is the match-up. If Tomic wins though, then I’d look at him to potentially get on a run this week.
#3 Adrian Mannarino The third seed has a bye to open and then a potentially tough match against either Falla or Ram. Ram may be one of those who has a difficult time with the quick turnaround and transition from Newport to Bogota. Falla is switching from grass also, but will have the benefit of extra prep time. I expect him in this spot and he’s made the Final in Bogota in 2013. Mannarino lost in the 1st round last year in Bogota & struggled in 2013 in the opening round to win in three. Give Falla a very real shot to pull of a win if he’s the guy in this spot.
#4 Victor Estrella-Burgos The Dominican is also getting a 1st round bye which will serve him well after playing a Davis Cup match on Sunday. Burgos made the semis last year in Bogota and the 2nd round back in 2013. His confidence should be a bit higher after winning in Davis Cup play as he was sruggling at the ATP level prior to the weekend. He has the benefit of seeing either Yuchi Sugita or Nicholas Barrientos first-up. Barrientos plays his home tourney for the 3rd straight year without a main draw win. Sugita has been miserable on hard courts this year though, so that’s a toss up where the Colombian might actually win. With the rest, I think Burgos is likely to get through his first match, so a low risk of an upset for me here.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is the tournament I am focusing on this week. Good luck to you guys. Have not seen any futures prices yet. Will add some thoughts on that when I see them.
This is the third year that the ATP tour stops in Bogota as a transition to the summer hard courts. Top seed Ivo Karlovic has been able to switch from the grass in Newport to the high altitude of Bogota nicely in each of the 1st two years that this 250 level event has been held. Karlovic won the inaugural event in 2013 before losing in the Final last year to Bernard Tomic. The high altitude of Bogota does lend itself to success for big servers as Karlovic has proven. Last year, Ivo threw down 39 aces in the three set Finals loss to Tomic. The troubled Aussie is back in Bogota this year following his much publicized arrest for a loud party this past week at a Miami hotel. Tomic is the 2nd seed this year. Rounding out the seeds are Adrian Mannarino, Victor Estrella Burgos, Marcos Baghdatis, Sam Groth, Malek Jaziri & James Ward. The intriguing part of this year’s tournament will be how players transition quickly to the altitude and the surface change with many of them playing on grass most recently or in Davis Cup action over the weekend.
As a 250 level event, seeds are of course susceptible to early upsets. Last year though there was just one seed that lost their first match. In the first year of the event in 2013 however, half of the eight seeds lost their first match. Let’s take a look at this year’s seeds and the what the chances are that they might be losing early in this tournament.
#1 Ivo Karlovic Normally playing a Sunday Final on grass and then turning aorund relatively quickly to altitude and a new surface would be difficult. Karlovic however has proven to be able to handle those circumstances. Last year, Karlovic lost the Newport Final, but was able to make a Finals run in Bogota before losing to Tomic. In 2013, he lost in the QFs in Newport and then came to Bogota and claimed the title. This year it will be similar to last year as he works from the Sunday Final to a 2nd round match against either Pere Riba or wild card Daniel Elahi Galan. One difference this year could be arm pain that Ivo has been experiencing in Newport. There could be a chance that he decides to skip Bogota depending on how he feels Sunday. If not, then I would definitely monitor him in Bogota as a potential upset victim at some point with that arm issue.
#2 Bernard Tomic Tomic played Newport last week and crashed out in his opener. That came on the heels of his post-Wimbledon blow up on Tennis Australia. This time, he’s got the baggage from his Miami arrest following him. He gets a bye and then faces either local Alejandro Gonzalez or Adrian Menendez-Maceiras. Gonzalez was a tough out last year in Bogota, making the quarter finals. With Tomic’s mental state still a question, give Gonzalez a shot at an upset if that is the match-up. If Tomic wins though, then I’d look at him to potentially get on a run this week.
#3 Adrian Mannarino The third seed has a bye to open and then a potentially tough match against either Falla or Ram. Ram may be one of those who has a difficult time with the quick turnaround and transition from Newport to Bogota. Falla is switching from grass also, but will have the benefit of extra prep time. I expect him in this spot and he’s made the Final in Bogota in 2013. Mannarino lost in the 1st round last year in Bogota & struggled in 2013 in the opening round to win in three. Give Falla a very real shot to pull of a win if he’s the guy in this spot.
#4 Victor Estrella-Burgos The Dominican is also getting a 1st round bye which will serve him well after playing a Davis Cup match on Sunday. Burgos made the semis last year in Bogota and the 2nd round back in 2013. His confidence should be a bit higher after winning in Davis Cup play as he was sruggling at the ATP level prior to the weekend. He has the benefit of seeing either Yuchi Sugita or Nicholas Barrientos first-up. Barrientos plays his home tourney for the 3rd straight year without a main draw win. Sugita has been miserable on hard courts this year though, so that’s a toss up where the Colombian might actually win. With the rest, I think Burgos is likely to get through his first match, so a low risk of an upset for me here.
#5 Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis will be sad to see the grass court season go as he played some
of his better tennis since January on the green stuff. He’s taking part
in this tournament for the 1st time. Hard courts are generally good to
Baggy, so this might be a nice spot for him in a low pressure
tournament. He will face a qualifier first-up. I don’t see a ton of
quality in the qualifiers who are still battling for a main draw spot,
so Baghdatis should survive his 1st match. Do check the match-up first
though.
#6 Sam Groth
One of the heroes of Australia’s comeback win in Davis Cup play, Groth
presumably would be well suited to the courts here with his monster
serve. The main issue for Groth though is going to be a lack of prep
time and long travel. The quick switch from grass and to this altitude
in Bogota will be rough, even though he experienced it last year. He
faces Guido Pella to open. This could be similar to Groth’s 1st rounder
last year in Bogota where he had to fight hard in a 3rd set tie break to
beat doubles specialist Juan Sebastian Cabal. Have Groth on upset alert
with an emotional hangover from the Aussies Davis Cup win quite
possible.
#7 Malek Jaziri
Jaziri faces American Austin Krajicek who has had problems winning
matches the last few months. Krajicek has won just one match since April
and that came on the Challenger level. He does fight hard, losing in
three sets in five of his last six matches. Jaziri isn’t in great form
either, just 3-7 in his last 10. Jaziri doesn’t get to see a ton of
lefties with just one match against a lefty this year resulting in a
loss. Even with Krajicek struggling to lock down a win, I think he has a
good chance to get on the board with one here.
#8 James Ward
The Brit is another Davis Cup traveller who looks like a prime upset
candidate in this spot. Ward looked pretty poor in losing his Davis Cup
tie against Gilles Simon on Friday. He did not have to take the court
again over the weekend, but is doing the quick trip across the pond to
get to Bogota. Ward did make the 2nd round last year after running
through qualis, but with the lack of prep time this year, he will be
more prone to an upset. He faces Michael Berrer. The German is on his
farewell tour & plays Bogota for the 1st time. Berrer’s main issue
seems to be fitness. He started well in a lot of his grass court
matches, but faded hard after the 1st set. He’s got a serve with some
pop and will have better prep than Ward. He’ll need to jump on Ward
early and find another geat after the 1st set, but it’s certainly a
match-up that is winnable for the unseeded player.
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#5 Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis will be sad to see the grass court season go as he played some
of his better tennis since January on the green stuff. He’s taking part
in this tournament for the 1st time. Hard courts are generally good to
Baggy, so this might be a nice spot for him in a low pressure
tournament. He will face a qualifier first-up. I don’t see a ton of
quality in the qualifiers who are still battling for a main draw spot,
so Baghdatis should survive his 1st match. Do check the match-up first
though.
#6 Sam Groth
One of the heroes of Australia’s comeback win in Davis Cup play, Groth
presumably would be well suited to the courts here with his monster
serve. The main issue for Groth though is going to be a lack of prep
time and long travel. The quick switch from grass and to this altitude
in Bogota will be rough, even though he experienced it last year. He
faces Guido Pella to open. This could be similar to Groth’s 1st rounder
last year in Bogota where he had to fight hard in a 3rd set tie break to
beat doubles specialist Juan Sebastian Cabal. Have Groth on upset alert
with an emotional hangover from the Aussies Davis Cup win quite
possible.
#7 Malek Jaziri
Jaziri faces American Austin Krajicek who has had problems winning
matches the last few months. Krajicek has won just one match since April
and that came on the Challenger level. He does fight hard, losing in
three sets in five of his last six matches. Jaziri isn’t in great form
either, just 3-7 in his last 10. Jaziri doesn’t get to see a ton of
lefties with just one match against a lefty this year resulting in a
loss. Even with Krajicek struggling to lock down a win, I think he has a
good chance to get on the board with one here.
#8 James Ward
The Brit is another Davis Cup traveller who looks like a prime upset
candidate in this spot. Ward looked pretty poor in losing his Davis Cup
tie against Gilles Simon on Friday. He did not have to take the court
again over the weekend, but is doing the quick trip across the pond to
get to Bogota. Ward did make the 2nd round last year after running
through qualis, but with the lack of prep time this year, he will be
more prone to an upset. He faces Michael Berrer. The German is on his
farewell tour & plays Bogota for the 1st time. Berrer’s main issue
seems to be fitness. He started well in a lot of his grass court
matches, but faded hard after the 1st set. He’s got a serve with some
pop and will have better prep than Ward. He’ll need to jump on Ward
early and find another geat after the 1st set, but it’s certainly a
match-up that is winnable for the unseeded player.
Karlovic Quarter
Ivo showed no worse for the wear in Sunday’s Newport Final, although he
did lose and his serve may have lost a couple of important MPHs. That
might have been just enough for Rajeev Ram on Sunday to beat him and it
could be the difference as this week goes on in Bogota. This quarter is
seeded to see the battle of the massive serves with 6th seed Sam Groth
in the bottom of the quarter. Both really are positioned well to run to
the quarters. The intriguing 1st rounder will be Radek Stepanek vs.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin. One of the two vets might have a shot to sneak
through this quarter if both Karlovic & Groth drop out early.
Stepanek though looked poor in Newport in a straight sets crush job by
Jack Sock. ERV won one & lost one in Newport and still looks as if
he has not found any sort of consistency this season. Stepanek mades the
semis in Bogota last year, but his form is far from that. Maybe give
him the slight edge just because he was comfortable here last year. All
in all, I’m going with Groth in this spot. I think Karlovic is going to
wear down this week with the arm already a problem upon arrival.
Mannarino Quarter
This quarter looks pretty open and could run with the home standing
Alejandro Falla. I already covered the thoughts on the 3rd seed
Mannarino potentially being in a trouble spot to open if Falla can take
out Ram. Ram had great form in Newport, but the switch back to hard
courts may not be a good one for him. I like Falla to surprise in the
top half and make it to the quarters. On the bottom, it’s shaky for the
seed as well with Jaziri. The survivor of Jaziri-Krajicek gets Aussie
John Millman or a qualifier. The bottom of the quarter conceivably could
go to anyone and I favor it to be a non-seed. I think this quarter
comes down to the winner of the 2nd rounder with Mannarino v. Falla or
Ram. I’m siding with the nonseeded Falla to get to the semis out of this
quarter.
Burgos Quarter
This should be a handy draw for the Dominican to get on a roll. After a
bye, he has a winnable match-up with Sugita or Barrientos. Up top, 8th
seed James Ward should still be vulnerable after a poor showing at the
Davis Cup in London. He could be a bit fatigued still from his
longer-than-expected Wimbledon run. That could open the door for Berrer
to beat him and then Marchenko or a qualifier awaits. Keep an eye on
Marchenko. He doesn’t usually thrive at the ATP level, doing more damage
on hard courts at the Challenger level. But let’s be honest, this 250
draw isn’t far off from what you might see at a Challenger in terms of
the skill variation not being that far off from player to player. I’ll
take a flyer on Marchenko making some noise here and being in position
possibly against Burgos for the semifinal slot. Burgos runs really hot
& cold on this surface, so if he gets going early, watch out for
him. If not then this draw could go to anyone.
Tomic Quarter
The mind of Tomic is the biggest opponent he will once again face. Will
he be ready to put his off-court issues on the back burner and actually
show his skill? That is the question. If he’s still distracted or
disinterested then this quarter could be 5th seed Marcos Baghdatis’ for
the taking. Baghdatis may not be the player he once was, but his desire
level is usually pretty good. Ito is also in the top half of the quarter
with Baghdatis and could be a tough out. He played decently in Newport
and has some decent results now & then on outdoor hard courts. I
don’t think you can trust Tomic to be focused yet, so for me I’ll take
Baghdatis in this quarter with an outside shot that someone like
Alejandro Gonzalez or Ito could sneak through here.
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And a quick quarters breakdown.
Karlovic Quarter
Ivo showed no worse for the wear in Sunday’s Newport Final, although he
did lose and his serve may have lost a couple of important MPHs. That
might have been just enough for Rajeev Ram on Sunday to beat him and it
could be the difference as this week goes on in Bogota. This quarter is
seeded to see the battle of the massive serves with 6th seed Sam Groth
in the bottom of the quarter. Both really are positioned well to run to
the quarters. The intriguing 1st rounder will be Radek Stepanek vs.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin. One of the two vets might have a shot to sneak
through this quarter if both Karlovic & Groth drop out early.
Stepanek though looked poor in Newport in a straight sets crush job by
Jack Sock. ERV won one & lost one in Newport and still looks as if
he has not found any sort of consistency this season. Stepanek mades the
semis in Bogota last year, but his form is far from that. Maybe give
him the slight edge just because he was comfortable here last year. All
in all, I’m going with Groth in this spot. I think Karlovic is going to
wear down this week with the arm already a problem upon arrival.
Mannarino Quarter
This quarter looks pretty open and could run with the home standing
Alejandro Falla. I already covered the thoughts on the 3rd seed
Mannarino potentially being in a trouble spot to open if Falla can take
out Ram. Ram had great form in Newport, but the switch back to hard
courts may not be a good one for him. I like Falla to surprise in the
top half and make it to the quarters. On the bottom, it’s shaky for the
seed as well with Jaziri. The survivor of Jaziri-Krajicek gets Aussie
John Millman or a qualifier. The bottom of the quarter conceivably could
go to anyone and I favor it to be a non-seed. I think this quarter
comes down to the winner of the 2nd rounder with Mannarino v. Falla or
Ram. I’m siding with the nonseeded Falla to get to the semis out of this
quarter.
Burgos Quarter
This should be a handy draw for the Dominican to get on a roll. After a
bye, he has a winnable match-up with Sugita or Barrientos. Up top, 8th
seed James Ward should still be vulnerable after a poor showing at the
Davis Cup in London. He could be a bit fatigued still from his
longer-than-expected Wimbledon run. That could open the door for Berrer
to beat him and then Marchenko or a qualifier awaits. Keep an eye on
Marchenko. He doesn’t usually thrive at the ATP level, doing more damage
on hard courts at the Challenger level. But let’s be honest, this 250
draw isn’t far off from what you might see at a Challenger in terms of
the skill variation not being that far off from player to player. I’ll
take a flyer on Marchenko making some noise here and being in position
possibly against Burgos for the semifinal slot. Burgos runs really hot
& cold on this surface, so if he gets going early, watch out for
him. If not then this draw could go to anyone.
Tomic Quarter
The mind of Tomic is the biggest opponent he will once again face. Will
he be ready to put his off-court issues on the back burner and actually
show his skill? That is the question. If he’s still distracted or
disinterested then this quarter could be 5th seed Marcos Baghdatis’ for
the taking. Baghdatis may not be the player he once was, but his desire
level is usually pretty good. Ito is also in the top half of the quarter
with Baghdatis and could be a tough out. He played decently in Newport
and has some decent results now & then on outdoor hard courts. I
don’t think you can trust Tomic to be focused yet, so for me I’ll take
Baghdatis in this quarter with an outside shot that someone like
Alejandro Gonzalez or Ito could sneak through here.
Looking at Pinnacle, Groth is around +1700 to win the tournament. Will definitely wait to let him get that 1st match under his belt to see if the turnaround from Davis Cup is going to be too much or not.
Baghdatis +790 Falla +1150
Going to think on those.
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Looking at Pinnacle, Groth is around +1700 to win the tournament. Will definitely wait to let him get that 1st match under his belt to see if the turnaround from Davis Cup is going to be too much or not.
Good call on Stepy (also nice run recently) ... Waited over 24hours only to see goddamn' ERV collapse lol...I wish for once that he had just retired after the 4th stoppage lol or the 2nd set... At least I had semi hedged the 3rd set 6-4 lol...That being said I probably won't be betting for any of those 2 players in the near future...
I see you are on Gonzalez, why? I've had my wager on AMM since yday... Although I like both players, I prefer AMM in this matchup... BOL anyways! Hope it stays dry for the night in Colombia!
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Good call on Stepy (also nice run recently) ... Waited over 24hours only to see goddamn' ERV collapse lol...I wish for once that he had just retired after the 4th stoppage lol or the 2nd set... At least I had semi hedged the 3rd set 6-4 lol...That being said I probably won't be betting for any of those 2 players in the near future...
I see you are on Gonzalez, why? I've had my wager on AMM since yday... Although I like both players, I prefer AMM in this matchup... BOL anyways! Hope it stays dry for the night in Colombia!
I see you are on Gonzalez, why? I've had my wager on AMM since yday... Although I like both players, I prefer AMM in this matchup... BOL anyways! Hope it stays dry for the night in Colombia!
I saw a ton of people on other sites on AMM, so honestly this was mostly a fade of everyone else for me. I don't like playing a ton of these 50-50 type lines, but when I see a majority on one side, it's pretty amazing how many times the other side wins with these pick em type lines.
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Quote Originally Posted by coscos:
I see you are on Gonzalez, why? I've had my wager on AMM since yday... Although I like both players, I prefer AMM in this matchup... BOL anyways! Hope it stays dry for the night in Colombia!
I saw a ton of people on other sites on AMM, so honestly this was mostly a fade of everyone else for me. I don't like playing a ton of these 50-50 type lines, but when I see a majority on one side, it's pretty amazing how many times the other side wins with these pick em type lines.
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