Will be posting picks, fades and tidbits all week. This one will be my focus, but I could play a little of the other two ATP tournaments here and there too.
ATP Montpellier Preview
This indoor stop normally attracts plenty of local Frenchman to the
field. This year is no different. The top seed is defending champion
Richard Gasquet. Gasquet will be making his 2016 season debut after
missing the first month due to a herniated disc in his back. Four of the
top five seeds in this week’s field are Frenchmen with only second
seeded Croatian Marin Cilic bucking the trend. Following Cilic are third
seed Gilles Simon, fourth seed Benoit Paire and fifth seed Gael Monfils
Gasquet and Monfils have combined to win four of the five titles in the
history of this tournament. Only Tomas Berdych secured the trophy as an
out-of-towner in 2012. The tournament was not held in 2011.
Seed Report
The 250-level events on the ATP World Tour often spring a slew of upsets
from week to week. Montpellier has seen a few, but compared to other
similar 250s, it goes more by the seed than others. Last year, just one
seed lost their first match of the tournament. The previous two years,
three seeds lost their first matches in both 2014 and 2013. The first
year of the tournament saw no early upsets and 2012 saw just one seed
lose their opening match. Overall, seeds tend to be a big part of the
late stages of the tournament. Only 2013 saw semifinal spots not taken
by seeds. Every other year, all four semifinal slots have gone to seeded
players. While seeds have won the title each year at the Open de Sud,
the top seed has only taken the title once. That was Berdych in 2012. In
fact, the top seed has only made the final twice in the five year
existence of this tournament. That may not bode well for Gasquet who
already has a lack of match play going against him.
1. Richard Gasquet
This tournament has been good to Gasquet. He is 13-3 all-time with two
titles and has made three straight finals. The big thing this week will
be the health of his back, which flared up during the IPTL in December.
It’s a recurrence of a herniated disc. He’s managed it before, but it’s
always a tough proposition to step back on court after not having played
in a month. He may not lose early, but a deep run may be hard to fathom
this week.
2. Marin Cilic
Cilic plays Montpellier for the first time. The Croat normally played
his home tournament in Zagreb, but the PBZ Zagreg Indoors was moved to
Sofia, Bulgaria due to financial issues. That leaves Cilic to rediscover
his form in France. The second seed is 3-2 so far this season. He plays
well indoors and should be in the mix at the business end of the
tournament.
3. Gilles Simon
The man who has come closest to beating Novak Djokovic will be on
display as the tournament’s third seed. Simon is 6-5 in Montpellier with
his best finish being a semifinal in 2012. He has not made it past the
quarterfinals since that semifinal run and lost in his opener back in
2014.
4. Benoit Paire
Paire is 5-3 with one trip to the final back in 2013. His other two
times playing here, he as failed to make it past the second round. His
early flameout in Australia to American Noah Rubin doesn’t inspire much
confidence and he’s in a tough draw with Paul-Henri Mathieu and Gael
Monfils as countrymen who could take him out. Boom or bust a.k.a. a
typical week for Paire.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Will be posting picks, fades and tidbits all week. This one will be my focus, but I could play a little of the other two ATP tournaments here and there too.
ATP Montpellier Preview
This indoor stop normally attracts plenty of local Frenchman to the
field. This year is no different. The top seed is defending champion
Richard Gasquet. Gasquet will be making his 2016 season debut after
missing the first month due to a herniated disc in his back. Four of the
top five seeds in this week’s field are Frenchmen with only second
seeded Croatian Marin Cilic bucking the trend. Following Cilic are third
seed Gilles Simon, fourth seed Benoit Paire and fifth seed Gael Monfils
Gasquet and Monfils have combined to win four of the five titles in the
history of this tournament. Only Tomas Berdych secured the trophy as an
out-of-towner in 2012. The tournament was not held in 2011.
Seed Report
The 250-level events on the ATP World Tour often spring a slew of upsets
from week to week. Montpellier has seen a few, but compared to other
similar 250s, it goes more by the seed than others. Last year, just one
seed lost their first match of the tournament. The previous two years,
three seeds lost their first matches in both 2014 and 2013. The first
year of the tournament saw no early upsets and 2012 saw just one seed
lose their opening match. Overall, seeds tend to be a big part of the
late stages of the tournament. Only 2013 saw semifinal spots not taken
by seeds. Every other year, all four semifinal slots have gone to seeded
players. While seeds have won the title each year at the Open de Sud,
the top seed has only taken the title once. That was Berdych in 2012. In
fact, the top seed has only made the final twice in the five year
existence of this tournament. That may not bode well for Gasquet who
already has a lack of match play going against him.
1. Richard Gasquet
This tournament has been good to Gasquet. He is 13-3 all-time with two
titles and has made three straight finals. The big thing this week will
be the health of his back, which flared up during the IPTL in December.
It’s a recurrence of a herniated disc. He’s managed it before, but it’s
always a tough proposition to step back on court after not having played
in a month. He may not lose early, but a deep run may be hard to fathom
this week.
2. Marin Cilic
Cilic plays Montpellier for the first time. The Croat normally played
his home tournament in Zagreb, but the PBZ Zagreg Indoors was moved to
Sofia, Bulgaria due to financial issues. That leaves Cilic to rediscover
his form in France. The second seed is 3-2 so far this season. He plays
well indoors and should be in the mix at the business end of the
tournament.
3. Gilles Simon
The man who has come closest to beating Novak Djokovic will be on
display as the tournament’s third seed. Simon is 6-5 in Montpellier with
his best finish being a semifinal in 2012. He has not made it past the
quarterfinals since that semifinal run and lost in his opener back in
2014.
4. Benoit Paire
Paire is 5-3 with one trip to the final back in 2013. His other two
times playing here, he as failed to make it past the second round. His
early flameout in Australia to American Noah Rubin doesn’t inspire much
confidence and he’s in a tough draw with Paul-Henri Mathieu and Gael
Monfils as countrymen who could take him out. Boom or bust a.k.a. a
typical week for Paire.
5. Gael Monfils
La Monf comes to Montpellier in a good mood after making the Australian
Open quarterfinals. He has the most wins in Montpellier of any of the
players in this field. Monfils is 15-3 with titles in 2010 and 2014. He
has made the final three times in five trips and was a semifinal loser
to Gasquet last year. A definite contender this week.
6. Joao Sousa
Sousa has a 4-2 mark at this tournament and made the semifinals in 2015.
The Portugese has been somewhat of a revelation at these small indoor
tournaments the last few seasons. Sousa made two indoor finals in 2015,
winning the title in Valencia. In 2014, he made the Metz final and
scored his maiden ATP title indoors in Kuala Lumpur back in 2013. He
could be a legitimate threat to derail the French stranglehold on
Montpellier.
7. Borna Coric
The talented teen will be looking to rebound from a first round flop in
Melbourne. After making the final in Chennai to start the season, Coric
was bitterly disappointed with his straight sets loss to Albert Ramos
Vinolas. He has not played Montpellier before and has struggled indoors
so far in his career. Since his highlight wins in Basel in 2014 where he
made the semifinals, Coric has gone just 2-6 indoors over the past
year. Coric may not get untracked this week.
8. Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis is another first timer in Montpellier. He’s been both good and
bad on this surface. Last year, he made the semifinals in both Zagreb
and Stockholm. He had not been to an indoor semifinal since 2012. He’s
only played three matches this season, but he’s in Gasquet’s quarter and
could take advantage if the top seed is rusty or still unfit.
The Quali-Fire
Four spots are up for grabs in the main draw on Monday as qualifying
finishes in Montpellier. The French could lock up three more spots in
the field of 28. Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, Kenny De Schepper and David
Guez are all taking part in the final round. Swede Elias Ymer also has a
shot to make the main draw. He faces Russian Karen Kkachanov. Don’t
sleep on the qualifiers here. One has made the quarterfinals in each of
the last two years in Montpellier. Check where they are slotted into the
draw as one of them could repeat that feat.
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5. Gael Monfils
La Monf comes to Montpellier in a good mood after making the Australian
Open quarterfinals. He has the most wins in Montpellier of any of the
players in this field. Monfils is 15-3 with titles in 2010 and 2014. He
has made the final three times in five trips and was a semifinal loser
to Gasquet last year. A definite contender this week.
6. Joao Sousa
Sousa has a 4-2 mark at this tournament and made the semifinals in 2015.
The Portugese has been somewhat of a revelation at these small indoor
tournaments the last few seasons. Sousa made two indoor finals in 2015,
winning the title in Valencia. In 2014, he made the Metz final and
scored his maiden ATP title indoors in Kuala Lumpur back in 2013. He
could be a legitimate threat to derail the French stranglehold on
Montpellier.
7. Borna Coric
The talented teen will be looking to rebound from a first round flop in
Melbourne. After making the final in Chennai to start the season, Coric
was bitterly disappointed with his straight sets loss to Albert Ramos
Vinolas. He has not played Montpellier before and has struggled indoors
so far in his career. Since his highlight wins in Basel in 2014 where he
made the semifinals, Coric has gone just 2-6 indoors over the past
year. Coric may not get untracked this week.
8. Marcos Baghdatis
Baghdatis is another first timer in Montpellier. He’s been both good and
bad on this surface. Last year, he made the semifinals in both Zagreb
and Stockholm. He had not been to an indoor semifinal since 2012. He’s
only played three matches this season, but he’s in Gasquet’s quarter and
could take advantage if the top seed is rusty or still unfit.
The Quali-Fire
Four spots are up for grabs in the main draw on Monday as qualifying
finishes in Montpellier. The French could lock up three more spots in
the field of 28. Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, Kenny De Schepper and David
Guez are all taking part in the final round. Swede Elias Ymer also has a
shot to make the main draw. He faces Russian Karen Kkachanov. Don’t
sleep on the qualifiers here. One has made the quarterfinals in each of
the last two years in Montpellier. Check where they are slotted into the
draw as one of them could repeat that feat.
Quarters Preview First Quarter: Richard Gasquet (1)
Gasquet gets the first round bye and could be in for an immediate test
in round two. He faces the winner of a first round match between Ernests
Gulbis and wild card Quentin Halys. Gulbis flashed his trademark
inconsistency in a five set thrill ride to Jeremy Chardy in the opening
round at the Australian Open. It was at least a blip on the radar of
life for the Latvian who had looked poor to start the season. Halys
scored an impressive upset of Ivan Dodig in Melbourne, before losing to
Novak Djokovic in round two. Gulbis is better on this surface due to
experience, but he was terrible in 2015 indoors at 3-5. This is a
toss-up.
The bottom half of the quarter sees 8th seeded Marcos Baghdatis open
against Lukas Lacko. Lacko has been competitive against the Cypriot in
three career meetings, beating him indoors at Zagreb in 2012. Expect a
tight set or two, but Baghdatis should edge through to round two. The
winner gets the winner of Denis Istomin and Taro Daniel. The two met
once in Tokyo back in 2014 and it was a hard fought three set win for
Istomin 7-6, 6-7, 7-5. Istomin has made the quarterfinals back-to-back
years here and should find a way, but an upset would not be that
surprising in this spot. If Istomin finds good form in Montpellier
again, he could surprise in this quarter. With Gasquet’s injury status,
Baghdatis or Istomin might sneak through this quarter.
Second Quarter: Gilles Simon (3)
Simon gets the bye and then faces Steve Darcis or a qualifier. The final
round of qualifying finishes on Monday. There are some good players who
could be slotted in, so Darcis is on upset alter. Simon should have the
possibility to scoot through to the quarterfinals in this draw. That
will depend greatly on the qualifier slotted against Darcis. The bottom
half of thie quarter is loaded. Sixth seed Joao Sousa opens with Ruben
Bemelmans. The winner will battle either Nicolas Mahut or Jan-Lennard
Struff. The Mahut-Struff first rounder should be one of the more
competitive matches. Struff has won two career matches with Mahut, both
coming on indoor hard courts. Three of the five sets they have played
were tie breaks, so it should be close. This is Sousa’s quarter to take
if he’s so inclined.
Third Quarter: Benoit Paire (4)
Paire will open against Paul-Henri Mathieu or a qualifier in a tough
match. The fourth seed beat Mathieu twice in 2015, once through
retirement. Still, Mathieu is normally competitive on this surface and
could challenge an up and down Paire. The top half of the draw is led by
5th seed Gael Monfils. He opens in the second round against either
Julien Benneteau or John Millman. Both are good match-ups for Monfils
and he should be expected to do damage in this quarter. It could be a
quarterfinal blockbuster if seeds hold with Paire against Monfils. Paire
won their only meeting at last year’s BNP Paribas Masters in Paris in
three tight sets. Monfils has the current edge in confidence and form,
not to mention his history of playing well in Montpellier.
Fourth Quarter: Marin Cilic (2)
Cilic could see wunderkind Alexander Zverev in the second round. Zverev
opens his campaign in Montpellier against Luca Vanni. Neither has a ton
of experience winning indoor matches at this level, but Zverev should be
slightly better suited to the surface. Should Cilic survive to the
quarterfinals, he could be looking his fellow Croatian squarely in the
face. Seventh seed Borna Coric does have a tough draw against veteran
Michael Berrer to open. A win there would pit him against Nikoloz
Basilashvili or a qualiifier. We were supposed to get the Cilic-Coric
match at the Australian Open until Coric flopped in the first. This time
around, the Croatian showdown could happen. Cilic has been pretty solid
indoors the last two years at 21-6, so this should be a draw that he
could do well with.
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Quarters Preview First Quarter: Richard Gasquet (1)
Gasquet gets the first round bye and could be in for an immediate test
in round two. He faces the winner of a first round match between Ernests
Gulbis and wild card Quentin Halys. Gulbis flashed his trademark
inconsistency in a five set thrill ride to Jeremy Chardy in the opening
round at the Australian Open. It was at least a blip on the radar of
life for the Latvian who had looked poor to start the season. Halys
scored an impressive upset of Ivan Dodig in Melbourne, before losing to
Novak Djokovic in round two. Gulbis is better on this surface due to
experience, but he was terrible in 2015 indoors at 3-5. This is a
toss-up.
The bottom half of the quarter sees 8th seeded Marcos Baghdatis open
against Lukas Lacko. Lacko has been competitive against the Cypriot in
three career meetings, beating him indoors at Zagreb in 2012. Expect a
tight set or two, but Baghdatis should edge through to round two. The
winner gets the winner of Denis Istomin and Taro Daniel. The two met
once in Tokyo back in 2014 and it was a hard fought three set win for
Istomin 7-6, 6-7, 7-5. Istomin has made the quarterfinals back-to-back
years here and should find a way, but an upset would not be that
surprising in this spot. If Istomin finds good form in Montpellier
again, he could surprise in this quarter. With Gasquet’s injury status,
Baghdatis or Istomin might sneak through this quarter.
Second Quarter: Gilles Simon (3)
Simon gets the bye and then faces Steve Darcis or a qualifier. The final
round of qualifying finishes on Monday. There are some good players who
could be slotted in, so Darcis is on upset alter. Simon should have the
possibility to scoot through to the quarterfinals in this draw. That
will depend greatly on the qualifier slotted against Darcis. The bottom
half of thie quarter is loaded. Sixth seed Joao Sousa opens with Ruben
Bemelmans. The winner will battle either Nicolas Mahut or Jan-Lennard
Struff. The Mahut-Struff first rounder should be one of the more
competitive matches. Struff has won two career matches with Mahut, both
coming on indoor hard courts. Three of the five sets they have played
were tie breaks, so it should be close. This is Sousa’s quarter to take
if he’s so inclined.
Third Quarter: Benoit Paire (4)
Paire will open against Paul-Henri Mathieu or a qualifier in a tough
match. The fourth seed beat Mathieu twice in 2015, once through
retirement. Still, Mathieu is normally competitive on this surface and
could challenge an up and down Paire. The top half of the draw is led by
5th seed Gael Monfils. He opens in the second round against either
Julien Benneteau or John Millman. Both are good match-ups for Monfils
and he should be expected to do damage in this quarter. It could be a
quarterfinal blockbuster if seeds hold with Paire against Monfils. Paire
won their only meeting at last year’s BNP Paribas Masters in Paris in
three tight sets. Monfils has the current edge in confidence and form,
not to mention his history of playing well in Montpellier.
Fourth Quarter: Marin Cilic (2)
Cilic could see wunderkind Alexander Zverev in the second round. Zverev
opens his campaign in Montpellier against Luca Vanni. Neither has a ton
of experience winning indoor matches at this level, but Zverev should be
slightly better suited to the surface. Should Cilic survive to the
quarterfinals, he could be looking his fellow Croatian squarely in the
face. Seventh seed Borna Coric does have a tough draw against veteran
Michael Berrer to open. A win there would pit him against Nikoloz
Basilashvili or a qualiifier. We were supposed to get the Cilic-Coric
match at the Australian Open until Coric flopped in the first. This time
around, the Croatian showdown could happen. Cilic has been pretty solid
indoors the last two years at 21-6, so this should be a draw that he
could do well with.
Late notice on this one as I just noticed Fader Joe has one of his locks today as Carreno Busta. These big chalk plays don't always fail, but they often at least lose a set. So this might be worth a look, starts soon.
Quito: Dutra Silva +1.5 Sets @ -110
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Late notice on this one as I just noticed Fader Joe has one of his locks today as Carreno Busta. These big chalk plays don't always fail, but they often at least lose a set. So this might be worth a look, starts soon.
If this Daniel one flops, I might have to go back to incognito posting LoL. I actually won a few in Melbourne when I wasn't posting picks here. Creatures of habit we gamblers are.
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If this Daniel one flops, I might have to go back to incognito posting LoL. I actually won a few in Melbourne when I wasn't posting picks here. Creatures of habit we gamblers are.
Calculated risk on a qualifier against someone who isn;t a supreme talent. Try them quite a bit in R1 when the dogs get + prices. Would not spend on qualis who are the heavier favorites like D.Brown, etc. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
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Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan8890:
Why do you like ymer?
Calculated risk on a qualifier against someone who isn;t a supreme talent. Try them quite a bit in R1 when the dogs get + prices. Would not spend on qualis who are the heavier favorites like D.Brown, etc. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
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