ATP Washington

The summer hard court season heats up this week in Washington, D.C. for the Citi Open. Andy Murray leads the charge as the top seed, returning to the court for the first time since his Davis Cup heroics earlier in July. Defending Champion Milos Raonic is still on the sideline trying to recover from a foot injury. He is still hoping to return to the court next week at the Rogers Cup. 2014 Finalist Vasek Pospisil will be in action this week in D.C. as the 12th seed. 2014 semifinalists Richard Gasquet and Donald Young are also in the main draw. Gasquet is seeded fourth, while Young comes in unseeded and mired in a horrid slump.

Being the top seed in D.C. has not been conducive to winning the Citi Open. Since 2007, only Andy Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro (2013) have won this tournament as the top seed. The #1 seed has done well to go deep in the tournament more often than not. The #1 has gone to at least the semifinalist in three of the last four years. This has also been a tournament where unseeded players are involved in the business end of the tournament. A nonseeded player has made the semifinals in D.C. four of the last five years. In 2010, David Nalbandian won the Citi Open as a wild card, while Radek Stepanek won it as a nonseeded player the following year.

So, let’s identify those dangerous floaters in the draw without a seed next to their name.

Steve Johnson
Johnson hasn’t exactly been consistent in 2015, but he made the quarterfinals as an unseeded player last year in D.C. He took down seeds John Isner and Ivo Karlovic before losing to eventual champion, Milos Raonic. He has an interesting draw with Lukas Lacko up for the third time in a month. Seeds Bernard Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov would then stand in his way of the third round and quarterfinals. Tomic is a rollercoaster and Dimitrov is still trying to find himself in what has been a mediocre season. Crazier things have happened than Johnson repeating a quarterfinal run.

Alexandr Dolgopolov
A one time winner of the Citi Open, the roulette wheel of the ATP Tour could be one to monitor this week. Dolgopolov’s draw is one that could see him roll into the quarterfinals with some momentum. He has Tim Smyczek up first in a winnable match and then it’s 10th seed Ivo Karlovic and 5th seed Kevin Anderson. He is 2-1 against Karlovic and 1-1 against Anderson. As always, Dolgopolov looks boom or bust this week.

Denis Kudla
Kudla is entered into the Citi Open as a wild card and that might just be the best thing that happened to him. Wild cards have produced some fine moments here and Kudla of course is on a major roll right now. He made his first ATP level semifinal in Atlanta last week on the heels of a fourth round run at Wimbledon. His part of the draw has Leonardo Mayer seeded 15th and then 2nd seed Kei Nishikori on the bottom. He opens with a very favorable match-up against Blaz Rola before he would meet Mayer. Kudla should have a shot to make the third round where Nishikori likely would be waiting. Nishikori made the quarters here last year.

The Citi Open is in just its third year as a 500 level tournament with a 48 player field. Prior to that, the field was set at 32. In the two years with the expanded field, five seeded players have dropped their opening matches each year. With that in mind, here is a look at the seeds who might be most prone to an early upset.

#7 Felciano Lopez
Lopez will be one of the players making the clay to hard court transition this week. He played reasonably well with a semifinal showing in Gstaad. Washington has never been that good to Lopez with a 1-3 mark and two losses in a first-up situation. He gets one of two Aussies, either qualifier John Patrick Smith or Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt has not played on a hard court since Miami in March, so he may have a tough time against a match-tested Smith. In either case, leep Lopez on upset alert as he is usually a slow starter to getting back on North American hard courts.

#9 Viktor Troicki
Troicki is a tough call this week. He’s certainly coming off a nice stint on grass this summer where he went 10-4. On the other end, his last match was another 2-0 meltdown in Davis Cup play that allowed Argentina to advance to the semifinals. He hasn’t played this North American hard court stretch since 2012, so it reasons that he might take a bit to get warmed up. His first match comes against either Sam Groth or Thomaz Bellucci. Groth would seem more likely and although he’s been pretty average since his Davis Cup heroics for Australia, that serve on this surface would give him a legit shot to score a scalp on the Serbian.

#11 Bernard Tomic
This is one of those spots where people will put some trust in the Aussie due to his Bogota title. Last year, Tomic played D.C. following his Bogota title and he was done in his second match. He won’t have an easy opener as he will face either Lacko or Johnson. Johnson already owns a win over Tomic this year, beating him in Halle earlier this summer in straight sets.

#12 Vasek Pospisil
Although he’s just one year removed from being a finalist here, I’m weary of Pospisil this week. He seemed okay with the bone bruise he suffered from at Wimbledon, but the conditions in Atlanta really pounded on him. He was cramping in his opener against Lu and then was done in the next round in a loss to Marcos Baghdatis. Perhaps he will be more acclimated to the heat, but the D.C. forecast is not very forgiving early this week with highs in the 90s and some humidity. His first match will be against Tommy Haas or Donald Young. That will make things a bit easier on Pospisil.

#14 Pablo Cuevas
This is an easy one to spot as a potential knockout with Cuevas much more confortable on clay. He will be transitioning from the clay of Hamburg to hard courts this week as well. He hasn’t played in D.C. since 2008 and is just 2-4 on the surface in 2015. He will face either Yen-Hsun Lu or Ricardas Berankis in the 2nd round. Berankis is playing well lately and Lu would be equally difficult. Cuevas seems a very likely one and done.

#16 Leonardo Mayer
The Argentine and D.C. have not mixed so far with a 1-3 lifetime record at this tournament. Mayer has not played here since 2012. Since that time, Mayer has only played at Winston-Salem during this stretch toward the U.S. Open. He’s not without some chances on this surface as he does possess a solid serve when it is working. The problem in this case could be the match-up as outlined where he may meet red hot Denis Kudla in his first match. If that is the match, Mayer may very well be headed out of the tournament.

Quarters Breakdown
Murray Quarter
Murray played this tournament just once, way back in 2006 where he made the Final. In his return, he has a nice draw. Pablo Cuevas is the seed in his way to the quarterfinals and Cuevas likely will not be in the way at that point. More likely, he will have to get past Berankis or Lu to get a quarterfinal spot. That should allow Murray to conserve some energy for the tail-end of the tournament.

The bottom part of the quarter has much more talent with 8th seeded John Isner and 12th seeded Vasek Pospisl highlighting that part of the draw. Isner shouldn’t be discounted from a run simply because of playing Atlanta this past week. During his two previous wins in Atlanta, he was able to make the D.C. Final back in 2013 and lost in a third set tie break to Steve Johnson last year. A better draw this year with Victor Estrella-Burgos or wild card Nicolas Jarry first-up will help him get off to a good start likely. Pospisil has Haas or Young. Isner has reason to believe he can get to the quarterfinals with this cast of characters.

Gasquet Quarter
Gasquet has been dormant nearly a month now since his Wimbledon semifinal run, so he should be back to being match fit this week. Gasquet will get Malek Jaziri or Gilles Muller first-up. Muller would be tougher, but he could be gassed after the long week of singles and doubles play in Atlanta. Expect Gasquet to be in position to get to the quarterfinals. That could come against 15th seed Jack Sock who inhabits the other part of the top half of this draw. Sock had a poor showing in Atlanta by the standards that are being put on him now. He lost to Kudla in his first match and did not look to give his best effort. That makes this a key week for him to either bounce back or possibly fall into a slump. He gets Marinko Matosevic or Ruben Bemelmans to open which should allow him a chance for a win. This will be Sock’s best draw in his third trip to D.C. without the second seed in his way. Last year, Milos Raonic took him out in the third round and in 2013, it was second seeded Kei Nishikori with the honors.

In the bottom half of the quarter, it’s Grigor Dimitrov as the six seed and Bernard Tomic as the eleventh seed. Dimitrov will be the one to watch as he comes in with a slew of changes in his life since Wimbledon. Dimitrov has dumped both his coach Roger Rasheed and girlfriend Maria Sharapova. Time will tell if either was baggage holding down Dimitrov. One thing is certain and that is that Ivan Lendl will not be coaching Dimitrov. That announcement came out after the rumor mill swirled for a good week after the two were seen working out together. Dimitrov is slated to face qualifier Guido Pella or Marcos Baghdatis, although Baghdatis’ includsion in this tournament is in serious question following a leg injury in the Atlanta Final that hampered his effort. This part of the quarter could legitimately go to anyone, but I have a feeling that Dimitrov will enjoy the freedom from the shackles of Rasheed and Sharapova.

Cilic Quarter
Cilic leads the charge in one half with 13th seeded Sam Querrey as the scheduled roadblock to the quarterfinals. Cilic scored his best result of 2015 with a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon and he could be ready to roll heading into the defense of his U.S. Open title. I like this draw for him quite a bit as his first match will be either Dudi Sela or Hyeon Chung. Neither can match his power. Querrey looks like the expected third round opponent as he will face either Go Soeda or qualifier Darian King. As long as Cilic comes out firing, this looks like a nice path to the quarters.

In the other half, there should be plenty more intrigue and a lot of aces with Ivo Karlovic as the 10th seed and Kevin Anderson as the fifth seed. Karlovic could be an early casualty with Dolgopolov a possible second round opponent. Anderson should fare better with qualifier Yoshihito Nishioka or Alexander Zverev as his first oppponent. Anderson has made three straight quarterfinals in D.C. and could be in line for a fourth shot. He has the easier road, but this might be one of those unseeded slots with Dolgopolov getting to the quarters. Don’t be shocked if that happens or if Dolgopolov loses in the first round. That’s just Dog life.

Nishikori Quarter
Nishikori will hope that rest since withdrawing from Wimbledon with a calf injury will have helped him to recharge and enter this swing 100 percent fit. This hasn’t been Nishikori’s best tournament with a 6-4 record and last year’s quarterfinal as his best result. This year, his draw looks like it sets up nicely for something similar to 2014. He will face either Ryan Harrison or James Duckworth in his opener in the second round. If he survives there, a date with 16th seed Leo Mayer or maybe more likely wildcard Denis Kudla is on tap for the third round.

The top half of this quarter is much more wide open with 7th seed Feliciano Lopez and 9th seed Viktor Troicki. This looks like another part of the draw that could see a nonseed sneak through to the latter stages if neither Lopez or Troicki is up to snuff. Even though he has been below-par since the switch back to hard courts, Sam Groth is a name to watch in this part of the draw. His big serve though will always give him a chance if he can rediscover some consistency with it. Of the two seeds, I think Troicki is the more likely to find his game suited to the surface. I think this comes down to a surprise nonseed or Troicki with the winner getting a shot most likely at Nishikori.