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íWeek #5

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Shambata:

Michaella Gordon to beat Gaia Sanesi (Macon 50k Q)@2.00, bet365, 5/10

Gordon is a talented junior favors hard court and has a lot of potential. I like the odds before when its was 2.33 now they dont ahve that much value. Im basing this bet on Sanesi's inability to cope with Gordon on hard courts and the fact that she lost last week 2,2 against Abaza, that is Gordon's level imo. So that means, Gordon has a nice chance here, but small value... She is a proven junior already beaten many good players in the futures as well. GL!
Great!!! 
 
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Posted: #27
Yesterday's history:
Ida Jarlskog to beat Sina Haas (Stockholm 10k Q)@3.00, bet365, 5/10 WON
Cloe Hule to beat Jasmin Ladurner (Perth 25k Q)@2.20, bet365, 4/10 WON
Bondar/Galfi to beat Chiesa/Nakano (Heraklion WD)@2.1, bet365, 7/10 WON
Michaella Gordon to beat Gaia Sanesi (Macon 50k Q)@2.00, bet365, 5/10 WON
Paula Cristina Goncalves to beat Teresa Martincova (Victoria 25k) @2,0, bet365 5/10 postponed to tuesday

updated bankroll: +174,03u

Great day yesterday to start a great week I guess. Trying to gains some focus from it. 

Valeria Progrebnyak to beat Lisa Matviyenko (Antalya 10k)@4.00, bet365, 2/10

Progrebnyak is an up and coming junior, 210, so nothing that special. She is coming from wining a G4 ITF tournament on outdoor hard court, the same surface as here. That must give her some confidence although I checked it was quite a weak tournament. Matviyenko lost to Cengiz, talented turk 2 weeks ago, 61 61 and still i dont think she is in-form to be that much of a fav against a decent junior. I think something is really wrong in the odds and although Progrebnyak hasnt proved me she can beat even decent players in futures yet, I think the 4.00 is too high, there is "some" value. After yeterday's romp, I try this. GL!
 
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Posted: #28
David Goffin to win 3rd Quarter in ATP Basel, @2.87, bet365, 5/10

This is quite a collector's item from me (I usually bet on ITF Women's), but really Goffin has been the most impressive player on the ATP the last 2 months. He is such a pure talent that I cant even find words and I think he is managed just right, picking nice tournaments and leaving anough time to rest his mind and body btw those successful tournament. I think this tournament again he will show what a force he is and I dont think Dodig nor Raonic is too impressive now to beat him. So 2.8 has some value in it! Lets get this!
 
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Posted: #29
Michaela Gordon to beat Jasmine Paolini (Macon 50k Q) @2,37 bet365, 5/10

Michaela Gordon had good results on hard court against some good players, also I rate her potential very high. Now she faces Paolini who has some good results also, but only on clay court, on hard court she has been beaten by Channel Simmonds in straight sets. I think now Gordon will continue his great form against Paolini. 
GL!
 
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Posted: #30
Ayan Broomfield to beat Lauren Albanese (Saguenay 50k) @3,5 bet365 4/10

Lauren Albanese has lost yesterday against a young canadian player, Rosie Johanson, but she advances to the main draw as a lucky loser. Now she faces Ayan Broomfield who is similar to the young canadian Johanson. Broomfield qualifies to the main draw, beats Bhargava in straight sets. I think Broomfield can win today as she is in a better form, and Albanese is a Lucky Loser, so he advances with a lost match.
GL!
 
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Posted: #31
Stay hot my man. Watching this Woz/Pova match right now, not the best tennis being played, but great entertainment! 
 
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Posted: #32
Nice big dog Ayan gets there 26  61 61    
 
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Posted: #33
what happened in the Michaela Gordon match. suddenly the match just disappeared from the live bet after she had dominated the 2nd set, and a couple of hours later she had lost?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by MMAwizard:

what happened in the Michaela Gordon match. suddenly the match just disappeared from the live bet after she had dominated the 2nd set, and a couple of hours later she had lost?
 

I never could find that match on any live scoring. I just seen it in my graded wagers she lost 2 sets to 1 is all I know. Shambata will most likely know. 
 
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Posted: #35
it happens when referees' 3g livescore device goes offline for some reason.... Gordon couldnt finish it but we got a big dawg in Ayan love that!!! Idiots for that 3.4 price.... THANKS GOD! :)
 
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Posted: #36
1-3 day, but barley lost money thanks to Ayan! Cant win everyday look forward to tomorrow picks Sham. 
No idea how you know so much about these itf players, but you've open my eyes to it, and im trying to learn as much as I can. 
 
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Posted: #37
yesterday cooled off a little as expected:
-0.68u

Dalma Galfi to beat Bojana Marinkovic (Heraklion 10k)@1.44 Void
Sharmada Baluu to beat Martha Matoula (Heraklion 10k)@1.22 WON
2 match Double,@ 1.8, bet365, 6/10 small win

Valeria Progrebnyak to beat Lisa Matviyenko (Antalya 10k)@4.00, bet365, 2/10 LOST (bad read)
Michaela Gordon to beat Jasmine Paolini (Macon 50k Q) @2,37 bet365, 5/10 LOST (had the momentum 60 going into third set)
Ayan Broomfield to beat Lauren Albanese (Saguenay 50k) @3,5 bet365 4/10 WON (had the momentum 61 going into third set and kept it, 61 in the third)
Paula Cristina Goncalves to beat Teresa Martincova (Victoria 25k) @2,0, bet365 5/10 postponed to tuesday LOST (bad read again I guesS)

updated bankroll: +173.35u

Dalma Galfi to beat Julia Stamatova (Heraklion 10k)@2.25, bet265, 8/10

Dalma is coming into this match winning 3 easy straight set winners, Stamatova stumbled almost inthe first round against Fafaliou, who  did not win a match for a long time. Clear win for Galfi here who isnt just a a top junior for Hungary but has immense potential and books dont know this yet. High stakes! GL!
 
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Posted: #38
SORRY WRONG ODDS, come again:

Dalma Galfi to beat Julia Stamatova (Heraklion 10k)@2.10, bet365, 8/10

Dalma is coming into this match winning 3 easy straight set winners, Stamatova stumbled almost inthe first round against Fafaliou, who  did not win a match for a long time. Clear win for Galfi here who isnt just a a top junior for Hungary but has immense potential and books dont know this yet. High stakes! GL!
 
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Posted: #39
you must have some kind of sway there. I noticed you posted this message like 20 min ago and I got to check and galfi is -175 which work out to about 1.57 in decimal odds. Either I'm out of my mind or you got an incredible price.
 
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Posted: #40
Small markets are sensitive like that. Also this was a badly set line, obviously and maybe easier to move, I dont know how it works, but I see if I post something on the forums (3 forums) lines move our direction, I have noticed this before as well, befoer I started to post. Small markets I guess. I only bet on the match after I post thogh!
 
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Posted: #41
wow, what a bad miss. now into the next one
 
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Posted: #42
Ahh. It makes sense smaller markets would be more sensitive, I suppose. Keep up the good work. I know I'm not the only on here that appreciates it.
 
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Posted: #43
Lilla Barzo to beat Anna Katerina Alzata Esmurzaeva (Pereira 10k) @1.57,bet365
Annika Beck to beat Lucie Hradecka (Poitiers 100k)@1.36, bet365

Double, @2.13, bet365

Barzo is, another talented hungarian junior who was injured for a long time so she did not have the time to make a push at the future levels yet. Now she travelled to the end of the world to a weak10k and imo she will have a nice tournament here. They have won easily in doubles yesterday, she won her first match also easy, so although Esmurzaeva has some nice wins earlier but not a force that she could not beat. I expect Barzo with her nice serve to excel here and have a shot of finishing well in this future. It is her time.
Picking Annika Beck, obvious pick, but I think she just had enough time to rest after her awesome week last week. 3 days to rest, she had and the surface is also similarly very fast to Luxembourg. Hradecka is a good player nowadays has some impressive wins, but not on this level. Not on Annika's level right now. If Annika can break her, this should be easy. There are times when Hradecka's serve is unbelievable. I know it might be a letdown spot for Annika, but I think the way she won the WTA, straight sets all along, gives her an utmost confidence to follow up on it! GL!
 
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Posted: #44
What is the unit size for that one Sham? Although im probably not going to get to play it since i keep getting timed out message at my book. 
 
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Posted: #45
yesterday:
Dalma Galfi to beat Julia Stamatova (Heraklion 10k)@2.10, bet365, 8/10 LOST (Galfi is injured on her hand, donr ask me how I know it.Just accept the fact that it would be the other way around, this match.... so unlucky)

Lilla Barzo to beat Anna Katerina Alzata Esmurzaeva (Pereira 10k) @1.57,bet365
Annika Beck to beat Lucie Hradecka (Poitiers 100k)@1.36, bet365
Double, @2.13, bet365, 5/10 WON Barzo steamrolled AKAE, look out for next round!!!

updated bankroll: +171u

Today:

Lilla Barzo to beat Carla Lucero (Pereira 10k)@2.37,bet365, 5/10

The was Barzo beat the seeded player AKAE yesterday, proved she will be in form for this tournament. Streamrolled AKAE who is similar level than Lucero. I think Lucero's form and talent is not enough to stay in Barzo's way, as I believe she has a shot in winning this tournament, singles and doubles. GL!
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Erik21:

What is the unit size for that one Sham? Although im probably not going to get to play it since i keep getting timed out message at my book. 

Sorry Erik! If I dont post it then its automatically a 5/10
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Shambata:


Sorry Erik! If I dont post it then its automatically a 5/10

Thanks man, noted. Good luck today 
 
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Posted: #48
Easy Winner in Barzo! After a another huge price drop, went to -158 last I seen. 
 Is it safe to say Barzo as a dog next match would be a good play against either Koch or Brogan? 
 
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Posted: #49
Ellen Allgurin to beat Monique Adamczak (Perth 25k)@1.66, bet365
Magdalena Frech to beat Akiko Yonemura (Hamamatsu 25k)@1.66, bet365

Double, 2.75, 5/10

Allgurin will continue to make her stride imo. Adamczak an experienced player but maybe after yesterday's match could be a little tired, winning 76 in the third over 2:30 hours. Ellen must be the fresher one here. The line already moved towards Allgurin and we lost some value...
Frech is performing extremely well, last week and this week also. Last week she was leading 61 51 agaisnt Veselinovic, decent player, and Veselinovic came back to win the 2nd set and then leading 3-0 in the third set, but Frech showed huge strength and came back and won the 3rd set. This showes strength and this weeks victory's esp yesterday over Hozumi is very very impressive. Now she plays a very beatable opponent and I think this is a good spot to back her. This line also moved to Frech side starting from 1.83. So we take a nice double here, medium stakes.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Erik21:

Easy Winner in Barzo! After a another huge price drop, went to -158 last I seen. 
 Is it safe to say Barzo as a dog next match would be a good play against either Koch or Brogan? 

Koch is a good player but not unbeatable, we will back Barzo probably until she loses
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