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Muguruza +175 ALL-IN

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Posted: #1

The last time I back Halep in a Major tournament she choked. This is as far as she goes as Muguruza Knows what it takes to Win a major. Also she is 3-1 H2H. 

 

Muguruza to WIN French Open +175

 

$5,000 to win $13,750

 
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Posted: #2

I love your confidence, but not the wager...you are short changing yourself here at this price...better to take her ML vs Halep at -110 for 5k, then roll the entire amount on her again ML in the finals (hoping for Sloane to roll Keys in the other semi, that way i truly believe the finals will be again priced -110 each way)...then your 9500 wager on Mugz in the final nets you approx 18k total...here you are only getting 4k less for the exact same wager essentially....

 

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Posted: #3

Forgot to say:

Good luck buddy...an_2drinks

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Posted: #4
The max bet should have been today. I had her for 5 units. It was a complete mismatch to anyone with half of a sense. I still like her against Halep and anyone she meets in the final, but the Halep match is not a gimme (imo). Halep is a lot tougher, mentally, than a year or two ago. Also, she is battle tested, whereas Muguruza has been cruising
 
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

The max bet should have been today. I had her for 5 units. It was a complete mismatch to anyone with half of a sense. I still like her against Halep and anyone she meets in the final, but the Halep match is not a gimme (imo). Halep is a lot tougher, mentally, than a year or two ago. Also, she is battle tested, whereas Muguruza has been cruising

Ya no kidding...i had mugu today for 500 units...im very good at capping matches after they play

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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Ya no kidding...i had mugu today for 500 units...im very good at capping matches after they play



I thought about posting it, Pac, but this forum is pretty much dead. No 3Negative, no eaglesphan, no nobody. So I did not post. But here was my reasoning. These two had, Muguruza had lost to Sharapova when she was a young nobody pushing pova to three sets each time. Now, 4 years later, two grand slams later, with Pova in the twilight of her career, Muguruza must have been chomping at the bit to play her. And based on some interviews I read, I confirmed that she was. Also, why do you think Serena pulled out? She did not want to lose to Pova and she knew that if she took out Pova her reward would be to get beaten by Muguruza. So she decided the best thing would be to let Pova get destroyed and humiliated by Muguruza. A win/win for her.
 
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Posted: #7
Btw, just to be clear. My units are only $100. Not claiming I bet 5,000 grand like this guy. I have bet that much before, but no on Tennis, and certainly not on a woman's match where almost anything can happen.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

I love your confidence, but not the wager...you are short changing yourself here at this price...better to take her ML vs Halep at -110 for 5k, then roll the entire amount on her again ML in the finals (hoping for Sloane to roll Keys in the other semi, that way i truly believe the finals will be again priced -110 each way)...then your 9500 wager on Mugz in the final nets you approx 18k total...here you are only getting 4k less for the exact same wager essentially....

 


You have more experience than me on how much these match lines move when the public gets on them but the books are setting up for Sloane to be around a 2.75/3.00 dog if she makes the final with a straight forward win no matter who shes up against. This will tighten depending on the scorelines in the semis but it'll take quite a bit of line movement to get her down to evens i reckon as shes 4.50 for the tournament and 1.53 to beat Keys, meaning taking Sloane to win the tournament now is giving you implied odds of 2.93 in the final.

He'd be gambling on Sloane to be dominant in the semis if he bets mugu match by match while he loses value if Sloane gets upset or has an average or marathon semi and then risk overthinking things based on how they go in the semi finals. 

Of course which so much money at stake, all options should be explored and it's interesting predicting how lines will be set.


Good luck btw.
 
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Ya no kidding...i had mugu today for 500 units...im very good at capping matches after they play
I thought about posting it, Pac, but this forum is pretty much dead. No 3Negative, no eaglesphan, no nobody. So I did not post. But here was my reasoning. These two had, Muguruza had lost to Sharapova when she was a young nobody pushing pova to three sets each time. Now, 4 years later, two grand slams later, with Pova in the twilight of her career, Muguruza must have been chomping at the bit to play her. And based on some interviews I read, I confirmed that she was. Also, why do you think Serena pulled out? She did not want to lose to Pova and she knew that if she took out Pova her reward would be to get beaten by Muguruza. So she decided the best thing would be to let Pova get destroyed and humiliated by Muguruza. A win/win for her.

I love to give Serena a hard time here, but i also am realistic too...im sure she was injured to the point where her serve would be a "sara errani"-like puff pastry, like she claims...a 75% serena should still beat a rusty old out of form Sharapova on clay...that being said, the real question is wtf was Serena doing playing doubles here with her sister? She didnt play Rome, or any of the other tune ups just to get her body in somewhat decent tennis shape oncourt...instead she jumps right into the French playing every single day alternating singles and doubles...this was a huge team mismanagement of their horse here...she needed those precious day off inbetween her singles matches for maximum recovery...she will likely never admit it, but she fuked up big time here by trying to be a hero and play doubs for no real reason, when she indeed had an amazing opportunity to get to the semis here and face Mugz, where she would have had a punchers chance.

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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by dimitripro:

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

I love your confidence, but not the wager...you are short changing yourself here at this price...better to take her ML vs Halep at -110 for 5k, then roll the entire amount on her again ML in the finals (hoping for Sloane to roll Keys in the other semi, that way i truly believe the finals will be again priced -110 each way)...then your 9500 wager on Mugz in the final nets you approx 18k total...here you are only getting 4k less for the exact same wager essentially....  
You have more experience than me on how much these match lines move when the public gets on them but the books are setting up for Sloane to be around a 2.75/3.00 dog if she makes the final with a straight forward win no matter who shes up against. This will tighten depending on the scorelines in the semis but it'll take quite a bit of line movement to get her down to evens i reckon as shes 4.50 for the tournament and 1.53 to beat Keys, meaning taking Sloane to win the tournament now is giving you implied odds of 2.93 in the final.He'd be gambling on Sloane to be dominant in the semis if he bets mugu match by match while he loses value if Sloane gets upset or has an average or marathon semi and then risk overthinking things based on how they go in the semi finals. Of course which so much money at stake, all options should be explored and it's interesting predicting how lines will be set.Good luck btw.

Dimitri...very nice post sir cool

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Posted: #11

This is the true final. It's winner will beat either American. But if that American is Keys, it'll be back up the brinks truck unloading time, even for Halep. That's how badly I rate Keys' mentality on a Slam final kind of stage.

 
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Posted: #12
Did someone say....brinks truck?! 
 
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Posted: #13
Although Halep has shown great mental resolve, Garbine is not only shown success in these situations but I think she's able to set the mental aspect aside and just hit through the court and outplay her opponent, regardless who is on the other side at this point. I think these odds are a gift. Many people view Halep as a favorite/more talented player but that is absolutely not the case here imo.
 
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Posted: #14

 The key with Muguruza in my experience is how her backhand is functioning. When she is knocking down the bh winners and not making a lot of UE off that same wing, she is on song. When her UE count off that wing starts to climb higher than winners and/or she's just not hitting winners off that wing full stop, that's a sure sign she's not feeling her game/at her best. Where her bh goes, she goes is my experience of watching a lot of her play. So my message for live bettors, focus on how her bh performs early on (as well as her serve, obv: 1st serve % is always a key for any player, that goes without saying). Halep running down her bh shots and frustrating her off that wing will play into the Spaniard getting frustrated.  

Muguruza's weakness is she struggles to dish up a plan B when plan A isn't working. That's a problem hardly limited to her, but her ball striking has little variance = she struggles to change up the pace or nature of her shot to give her opponents different looks if her plan A of hitting through her opponent isn't working. This is relevant here because Halep's game against power hitters is to not let them hit through her and thus why her best surface is clay: it blunts the power hitter's natural aim of doing exactly that. If Halep successfully thwarts Muguruza's plan A and demands that the Spaniard partakes in a succession of long rallies in order to win pts then she's going to end up breaking down her ground game. A sure sign of who is coming out on top in this regard will be to watch how far back from the baseline halep is standing to deal with muguruza's shots. The closer to the baseline she is, the better the odds are of her winning. The further back she is, the less angle she thus has to work with to bother Muguruza, thus the greater the chance of the Spaniard coming out on top: it really is that simple. Essentially this match boils down to Halep's ground game taking on Muguruza's power. Halep gets hit through early, this match could be over quickly. Muguruza's goal gets thwarted, then with no plan B to fall back on we could/should see the Spaniard get slowly ground into dust via a high UE count by Halep's returning.
 
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Posted: #15

gg got rolled

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by sandique:


 The key with Muguruza in my experience is how her backhand is functioning. When she is knocking down the bh winners and not making a lot of UE off that same wing, she is on song. When her UE count off that wing starts to climb higher than winners and/or she's just not hitting winners off that wing full stop, that's a sure sign she's not feeling her game/at her best. Where her bh goes, she goes is my experience of watching a lot of her play. So my message for live bettors, focus on how her bh performs early on (as well as her serve, obv: 1st serve % is always a key for any player, that goes without saying). Halep running down her bh shots and frustrating her off that wing will play into the Spaniard getting frustrated.  

Muguruza's weakness is she struggles to dish up a plan B when plan A isn't working. That's a problem hardly limited to her, but her ball striking has little variance = she struggles to change up the pace or nature of her shot to give her opponents different looks if her plan A of hitting through her opponent isn't working. This is relevant here because Halep's game against power hitters is to not let them hit through her and thus why her best surface is clay: it blunts the power hitter's natural aim of doing exactly that. If Halep successfully thwarts Muguruza's plan A and demands that the Spaniard partakes in a succession of long rallies in order to win pts then she's going to end up breaking down her ground game. A sure sign of who is coming out on top in this regard will be to watch how far back from the baseline halep is standing to deal with muguruza's shots. The closer to the baseline she is, the better the odds are of her winning. The further back she is, the less angle she thus has to work with to bother Muguruza, thus the greater the chance of the Spaniard coming out on top: it really is that simple. Essentially this match boils down to Halep's ground game taking on Muguruza's power. Halep gets hit through early, this match could be over quickly. Muguruza's goal gets thwarted, then with no plan B to fall back on we could/should see the Spaniard get slowly ground into dust via a high UE count by Halep's returning.


Great call!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by sandique:


 The key with Muguruza in my experience is how her backhand is functioning. When she is knocking down the bh winners and not making a lot of UE off that same wing, she is on song. When her UE count off that wing starts to climb higher than winners and/or she's just not hitting winners off that wing full stop, that's a sure sign she's not feeling her game/at her best. Where her bh goes, she goes is my experience of watching a lot of her play. So my message for live bettors, focus on how her bh performs early on (as well as her serve, obv: 1st serve % is always a key for any player, that goes without saying). Halep running down her bh shots and frustrating her off that wing will play into the Spaniard getting frustrated.  

Muguruza's weakness is she struggles to dish up a plan B when plan A isn't working. That's a problem hardly limited to her, but her ball striking has little variance = she struggles to change up the pace or nature of her shot to give her opponents different looks if her plan A of hitting through her opponent isn't working. This is relevant here because Halep's game against power hitters is to not let them hit through her and thus why her best surface is clay: it blunts the power hitter's natural aim of doing exactly that. If Halep successfully thwarts Muguruza's plan A and demands that the Spaniard partakes in a succession of long rallies in order to win pts then she's going to end up breaking down her ground game. A sure sign of who is coming out on top in this regard will be to watch how far back from the baseline halep is standing to deal with muguruza's shots. The closer to the baseline she is, the better the odds are of her winning. The further back she is, the less angle she thus has to work with to bother Muguruza, thus the greater the chance of the Spaniard coming out on top: it really is that simple. Essentially this match boils down to Halep's ground game taking on Muguruza's power. Halep gets hit through early, this match could be over quickly. Muguruza's goal gets thwarted, then with no plan B to fall back on we could/should see the Spaniard get slowly ground into dust via a high UE count by Halep's returning.

Congrats sir, this analysis was spot on!

Darren Cahill must've seen all you pointed out and it was obvious what Simona had to do, the big difference was that she was able to execute that plan, she kept Muguruza back with long balls, to temper her offensive. You were perfectly right about Muguruza not being able to switch to a plan B, also Simona's defense really flustered her many times.
Accomplished time-waster
 
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Posted: #18

Good Call sandique. Was not expecting to wake up that. 6-1 in the first set? Damn. 

I may need to rethink my strategies. 

 
 
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Posted: #19
I will never understand why people come on to covers and embellish their bets.   tough loss on your "5,000"
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