My Picks (Long Term Thread)

Agut - Roberto Carballes Baena over 21.5 @1.75,   1 unit

Both Agut-Baena over and Alcaraz Sinner over won

Today's PNL: +2.41 Units

16W-18L,.    +11.79 Units

We are gonna fade Alcaraz in Shangai Masters. Watched today's games, court is very bouncy, you cant do drops here, ball wont die when it hits ground. I expect Alcaraz to make a lot of FH unforced errors too. Last year he got eliminated to Dimitrov and could not cover handicap against Danny Evans. Alcaraz avoids this court, 2nd showing here in 5 years

Zhang - Zizou Bergs over 23 @1.94,     1 unit

Just saw this game, cant believe I am so late for good odds.

Perricard - Wawrinka over 22.5 games @1.55,   1.5 units

Pericard has good serve and a Forehand but does not even care about hitting with BH just hits the ball upwarda and soft. He is not motivated to run to return in return games.

Wawrinka is near 40 with a belly, has not much patience in rallies. But now opponent does not care about returnimg and it is a opportunity to win an atp tour game.

Odds opened @1.85 now @1.55 but I am taking.

Alcaraz will face a tough returner, Shang in his first game. Did not like how Shang played today but he will be motivated to beat Alcaraz, while Alcaraz will be satisfied with a great run after US Open.

Novak might play against Bu, and if Bu plays the way he played this week very tough game for Novak in his recent form.

Shapavalov - Shelton over 22.5 @1.72,     1.5 units

Shelton has been on a long tournament schedule lately. He was cramping vs Fils in Tokyo in 3-setter. He has a great serve but not sure about going aggressively after return games or trying very hard to go deep here. He will get a nice paycheck even.if he loses first game.

Shapavalov won 2 tight tiebreaks against Sonego here.

These 2 had 2 games this year which was 5 setter in Wimbledon, and a controversial game in Washington 500, 2nd tiebreak Canadian got defaulted for swearing at a person. Shelton had 2 serves at 6-3 and probably win but I think Canadian still has this in mind and gave him chances in his mind to turn the set. I saw a lot of swearing, most memorable Fernando Verdasco saying puta madre "son of a bitch" to audience and swearing at Richard Gasquet. Getting defaulted for this is harsh and on match point. Canadian got mad for the decision understandably.

4 years ago Canadian was #10 rank. I expect a fight here.

Kotov-Watanuki over 21.5 games @1.57,    1.5 units

I like a lot of overs in this draw. This much juice and low odds is wrong but I try to go with my probability to bookies odds conversion and try to go on a winning streak in these overs

Zhang Zizou over lost,  -1 unit

Perricard Wawa over win,   +0.825 unit

Kotov - Watanuki over win,    +0.855 unit

Todays PNL: +0.68 unit

18W - 19L,    +12.47 units

Felix AA 2-0 @1.83 vs Muller,    1.75 units

Tabilo ML @1.88 vs Rindkernesch,     1 unit

Fils 2-0 @1.88 vs Baena,    1 unit

Not a square bet as most would assume. After title wins players can choke but Baena has no weapons in hard courts. Watched him against Khachanov and Agut in these weeks. He has weak serve, terrible drop shots and cannot return deep because he is afraid to make unforced errors.

He will return balls without deep returns and be passive and hope Fils stamina will drop. Thats his only strategy 

He beat Agut because Agut was either injured or not fit

@Kenzito

 Muller beats him 2-0 

that’s just crazy to me—- Flex looked like a deer in headlights out there…. I couldn’t understand what he was doing…. Absolutely a joke 

Did not watch the game.

Watched Felix against Nishioka ana Mueller against a clayist. Both lost but from what I see Mueller should not beat Felix. Felix has a bad record in deciding sets so he should finish in 2. I have no regrets for the bet, may be unit size.

I have regrets for Shelton game. Shelton ML got up to @1.75 since yesterday.

My regret is I always say to myself wait for the last moment or 1 hour ago and then bet. I got games over bet yesterday.

I would not takeanything other than 2-0 for Felix, not ML or +1.5 sets for the odds.

Be calm and make good bets, there will always come good ones:)

Fils -3.5 games @1.82 vs Baena,     1 unit

IFFF Fils is fit, this should win

Bad betting day. Baena played very well, Fils made a lot of FH errors.

Today's PNL: -4.37 Units

19W-23L,        +8.1 units

Cerundolo ML @1.46 vs Schevschenko,   7 units

Schevsenko serving 1-3 0-40 in first set. Won in tb 9-7. Cerundolo did not care today.

I always lose with Cerundolo

I will bet on Safiullin to cover this loss. If I also lose it I will be out for some time. Because there are some red flags with my betting, I am not adhering to my rules.

Safiullin ML @1.68,    15 units

@Kenzito

Rain delay

Stresful wait :)

Watched the replay Schevi serving 1-3 0-40.

First 3 bps, after he served he did not hit the ball again. Cerundolo fckd every hit. After deuce he again fcked. 

Betting is crazy. What we assume and what actually happens may be very different. He should be the one running and be more ambitious. But no