Selected plays for Jan 2014. Only ATP

I've doing tennis (mostly ATP, some Davis Cup) trading for the last 5 years and decided to post some plays here (mostly as a gratitude to phixer from NFL thread, who's been a true source of inspiration) -))

My plays are based off custom database I've developed (ATP matches, books prices, performance stats) that I use to identify price discrepancies and adjusted according to recent news (rss, tweeter. I'm competent in 3 languages). I also have been playing tennis for several years and had a chance to discuss the game with pro players and coaches.

Of course, there are guarantees in this biz, use this thread only as a source of reference.

I'm doing my trading on betfair, so some of the prices or "lay" plays may not be available at the books. Most of the plays will be without detailed write-ups.

So, let's give it a try and GL to everybody

here are some numbers I use to identify "volatility" of the tournament - percentage of "dog" wins over the last 5 years.
this numbers give a general idea about the importance of the tournament for higher ranked players and help identify current streaks (for example, favorites won 5 years in a row in Chennai)

2nd RoundQuarterfinalsSemifinalsThe Final1st Round2nd RoundQuarterfinalsSemifinals1st Round2nd RoundQuarterfinalsSemifinalsThe Final

opps..formatting error.. trying again

Brisbane    1st Round    20    76    26.32
Brisbane    2nd Round    11    40    27.5
Brisbane    Quarterfinals    3    20    15
Brisbane    Semifinals    3    10    30
Brisbane    The Final    1    5    20
Chennai    1st Round    24    72    33.33
Chennai    2nd Round    11    40    27.5
Chennai    Quarterfinals    5    20    25
Chennai    Semifinals    3    10    30
Doha    1st Round    15    80    18.75
Doha    2nd Round    8    40    20
Doha    Quarterfinals    2    20    10
Doha    Semifinals    7    10    70
Doha    The Final    2    5    40

since it's too earlier in the season, there are HC or set plays yet.
all prices are ATM at my shops (betfair or bet365).
will not be posing unit sizes, since money management is always individual. just my confidence level in plays.

If you decide to use any of these, remember it is still early in the season, so manage your rolls accordingly.
It also looks like R1 in all 3 tourneys will be mostly plays on favorites.

Brisbane:
Outright:  Back, each-way: Querrey S. Cilic M. Lay: Federer R.
Round 1: Back: Cilic, Benneteau, Nieminen, Querrey, Kukushkin, Sijsling

Chennai:
Outright: Back: each-way Youzhny M. Lay: Wawrinka S.
Round 1: Back: Lu, Becker, Ramos, Carreno-Busta

Doha:
Outright: No prices available yet. Most likely result Nadal over Ferrer
Round 1: nothing yet

GL

went 4-1 in round 1 of 3 tourneys with 5 plays pending.

Adding:
Brisbane:
Round 2: Cilic and Querrey would be plays, but I've got them in outright. So no plays for me, just leans.

Chennai:
Round 1: GGL

Doha:
Round 1: Kamke, Brands - Davy over,

there is an injury concern over Gasquet - opposing him with one ball book could be considered.

GL

Can you explain what it means to back each way and lay? Bit confused.

to "lay" means to bet against.
when a bet is "placed" with a book that means that gambler "backs" and book "lays".
this option is available mostly on exchanges (I'm on Betfair), some books may offer it for limited markets.

and this is straight from wiki

An each-way bet is a wager offered by bookmakers consisting of two separate bets: a win bet and a place bet. For the win part of the bet to give a return, the selection must win, or finish first, in the event. For the place part of the bet to give a return, the selection must either win or finish in one of the predetermined 'places' for the event, such as in first "place" or second "place". The odds paid on the place part of the bet are usually a fraction (commonly ¹/₂, ¹/₃, ¹/₄ or ¹/₅) of the win odds. The trade-off being that one has a greater chance of making one's bet in trade for getting less payoff for doing so.

Hope it helps.
GL

ok, Kamke is in, it makes it a 5-1 day.

overs and laying 2-0 of favs should be considered in remaining round 1 matches in Chennai and Doha.

GL

2-5 today on posted plays. 7-6 total record (mostly favs)

For 01.01.2014 I'll try:

Brisbane: querrey - 1.5, lay 2-0 dimitrov,

chennai: pospisil

good stuff thanks for the info on the dogs. this plus the court speed are very telling.

well, i would not read too much into any number regarding court "speed". they are usually based around the number of service holds (or points won on serve) and could be misleading.
bounce height and ball reaction after contact with surface (rpm and speed lost) would be more telling - hawkeye systems have this data, but it's not widely available.
better initial estimate could be done using known factors: general specs of surface type and it's wear factor, balls used, altitude, temp and humidity, wind.
also, the closer stands are to the courts (as on all side courts) the "faster" court is usually perceived by the player

GL

here is the top 10 guys over the last 5 years with the best winning percentage when priced as dogs

Granollers M.    83    55    28    66.27
Kubot L.    60    39    21    65.00
Fognini F.    66    41    25    62.12
Stakhovsky S.    66    41    25    62.12
Garcia-Lopez G.    88    52    36    59.09
Montanes A.    69    39    30    56.52
Llodra M.    60    33    27    55.00
Becker B.    50    27    23    54.00
Paire B.    52    28    24    53.85
Haase R.    54    29    25    53.70

and 10 with the worst winning percentage when priced as favorites

Berrer M.    85    26    59    30.59
Kubot L.    102    31    71    30.39
Lacko L.    73    22    51    30.14
Zeballos H.    80    24    56    30.00
Mayer L.    84    25    59    29.76
Serra F.    89    26    63    29.21
Brands D.    72    21    51    29.17
Kamke T.    82    22    60    26.83
Andujar P.    124    32    92    25.81
Falla A.    84    21    63    25.00

only Dubai for me today (01.01.2014.. happy new year, everybody, btw!!)
friday is normally the day in this tourney when upsets occur (favs seem to be looking forward to travel then and dogs are fighting for points-money, so there is somewhat of motivational mismatch)

i'd expect a strong showing from favorites today. Kubot and Brown could take a set each, Brands should be good enough for take Ferrer over 20.5 games. those are just leans.

the only play is Monfils, though as always in matches between two Frenchmen, stakes should be kept low.

2-1 today on the plays, 3-0 on the leans. 9-7 so far on all plays.

must say that i was wrong about favorites, but in this biz lucky is just as good as good.

For 01.02.2014: I'll just take 3-5 favs from 1.5 and above

Brisbane: Back, Chardy, Hewitt
Chennai: Back, Pospisil (pending) - would also look at in-play options if Lu gets the break first.
    Back:  Sela, Lay 2-0 Paire
Doha: No prices yet, but i'd expect all favs to win

GL

thank you for the stats on favs & dogs 

tuco

My database only has ATP matches and Slams(no challangers or futures or Davis cup). So, it is only for 250, 500, Masters and Slams

Also, since i'm writing all queries myself, if anybody is interested in any specific subset of data, post your ideas here and i'll see what can be done.

Do you play total games or handicaps?

these types of plays are not my main plays.
i do occasionally use them as a hedge against positions in which i do not have high degree of confidence. usually it happens at the later stages of tourneys when players form-motivation becomes clearer.
but normally i prefer back - to - lay plays (if liquidity holds, which is not always the case for smaller tourneys)

2-0 so far today.
Adding:
Doha: Outright Monfils
QF: back Brown, Mayer, Monfils, gulbis to win 1st set, Lay 2-0 Nadal

GL

Hi Tuco, Nice work been following.  Do you do WTA as well?

 

Cheers

 

DC

Love the top 10 as dogs and favs... Got more key stats to share?

No I don't. The data is available, so in theory I could run the same queries. But ATP is enough for me for now.

I do have plays in WTA in later stages of bigger events if there are signs of injury or fatigue among top players, but not regularly.

I've got the base results of ATP matches plus book prices, plus some performance stats. They are in a relational database and I can create almost any query.
So far I've split data into 3 categories:
1. tournament related
2. players performance (match winning % in several situations: date interval, surface, when priced as dog or fav)
3. player match stats (% on serve, return, bp convertion etc.)

I'm doing queries only for the type of data i could not find anywhere else.

As I said, any ideas are welcome

Here is a bit outdated snapshot with the numbers of:
1. wins in 3 setters when priced as dogs AND dropping 1st set
2. losses in 3 setters when priced as favs AND winning 1st set

Stepanek R.    17        Davydenko N.    25
Serra F.    15        Berdych T.    23
Youzhny M.    14        Robredo T.    18
Melzer J.    14        Blake J.    17
Montanes A.    14        Melzer J.    17
Benneteau J.    14        Monfils G.    16
Seppi A.    13        Ginepri R.    16
Andreev I.    12        Andreev I.    16
Garcia-Lopez G.    12        Ferrer D.    16
Ferrer D.    11        Federer R.    15
Simon G.    11        Ferrero J.C.    14
Lopez F.    11        Gasquet R.    14