Sharapova vs. Cibulkova

Just because you win or lose doesn't mean your capping is correct. Good capping is determined by long term success...not 1 match. Anything can happen in the short term... look at the 1980 hockey team

I agree i like to be on the right side and lose....then be on the wrong side from the start lol if that makes any sense.

 

good point no capper can win 100% of the time ......sure would be nice though

Honestly...only the winning side is the right side ... have never been given money on a wager for being close

Good capper one day, bad the next!  LOL

I won on the over here, by 1/2 a game, but didn't post it.

dont remind me!!!
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btw sparty if we had live betting through trading it is extremely easy to find value in betting both sides during a match. Coming close counts as liquid value on those sites.

And anyway I 100% disagree with the notion of only the winning side being the right side. In fact that statement to me goes against the whole reason for betting on dogs at all. Longterm if you get your money in good you will come out ahead.

If you have an all in call to decide to make in poker on the flop, nut flush draw, one in three shot, and are getting 10 to 1 odds overall it is the winning move to call the all in even though you are 67% likely to lose all your money. It is all about getting your money in good and knowing where the value lies.

It cannot be all absolutes, it has to be percentages. If Fed and Lopez met under the same exact set of circumstances again next year, Fed would not be the winning play at -1000 even though he just won as one here (and winning validates the juice according to your "only the winning side is the right side" comment)....

If you got Lopez at over +500 (and almost everyone got him way higher)he only needs a one in six shot to justify the play. The dog bettors were right to ID this as a situation where his chance of winning exceeded that. My God, the man got to 5-2 with an overhead smash putaway that he makes 99.9% of the time, for four match points and if you give a dog with four match points a less than one in six chance of converting one of them you are crazy.

The wrong side short term can be the winning side longterm.

Just totally disagree with that statement and mentality. People who bet Lopez on the moneyline should feel good about their move even if they feel like shit about the result and should keep capping the way that led them to that pick because even big dogs will hardly ever choke from that position. If you think longterm "the only winning side is the right side" is a comment you should never make. That sounds like something someone would say after gloating about a -650 that won in a final set tiebreaker.

I made that comment myself many times when I laid juice. It ended poorly. Even a winning play can be a  bad one and if cappers do not realize that they will not be able to adjust before their bad strategies destroy them. all IMHO but you cannot take anything away from the Lopez backers today man, they made the most interesting move of the day and it is just a shame it did not work out.

If you want to feel good about a losing bet thats your choice. I never ever feel good about a losing bet...sorry but there are no moral victories in gambling.

Certainly Lopez backers were unfortunate to lose. Couple of things to consider though.

Fed was 16-3 in 19 sets previous.... which is 84%

Fed was 7-0 against Lopez head to head

Don't think you were fortunate to even had a chance to win?

And I am not taking anything away from anyone... if you want to believe in moral victories that is up to you. Only thing that matters to me is money in my account.

The end result is all that matters in life... the odds are things we dwell on before hand... once the game is played-dice rolled or cards dealt...its all about the result

 

Were Fed backers lucky today? Certainly

[Quote: Originally Posted by sparty444]

And I am not taking anything away from anyone... if you want to believe in moral victories that is up to you. Only thing that matters to me is money in my account.

The end result is all that matters in life... the odds are things we dwell on before hand... once the game is played-dice rolled or cards dealt...its all about the result

 

Were Fed backers lucky today? Certainly

[/Quote

 

damn straight Sparty ......all we want is winning !!!!