I know you guys now take me very seriously (besides  Fried Shrimp) so here goes...Early Thoughts..

Looking at the early prices, it tells you clearly the books haven't a clue who is going to win. I am not going to post what I am officially playing as that would be nuts before the Masters series take place and of course the draw (which will be crucial in deciding my final plays). Right now my gut feeling is to fade the big 2 in the market. Federer is now trading @ +250 and Rafa @ +330. When you consider the domination of both these guys have had on men's tennis then these prices look very big. I think they are this big for a reason.

The men's game is changing. Federer is looking human and Rafa is head and shoulders the best player in the world right now. It will be interesting to see what Federer does in the Masters series. I can't back Federer right now. It was obvious from the first round  and everything since the Australian Open, that this guy is nowhere near top form. He is getting on in tennis terms and while I could never write off such a legend, I can't back him with confidence at +250.

Then we have Rafa. I am sure he wins here one day (provides he stays injury free) but until he does I can't back him at these prices and will stay away. His +250 as I pointed out was a steal at Wimbledon, +330 NO WAY man!

Del Petro won't make it (I honestly don't think so) but even if he somehow gets on court, he can't defend the title with such little time on court. if he did that wpuld be legendary. He will win more then one Grand Slam but I can't back a guy that's been injured all year. He surely WON'T be there..

Djokovic is an interesting one. He has made the final here before and there were signs at Wimbledon that he is starting to SLOWLY to comeback to form..

I am hoping for the sake of tennis that either Soderling/Murray/Berdych will FINALLY make the breakthrough. Both Soderling and Murray have been to 2 grand slam finals and Berdych is really coming of age this season. Murray's favourite grand slam is New York. The big problem with him is that against a big hitter like say Berdych or Soderling he can be blasted off the court. For e.g Marin Cilic destroyed him last year. I had hoped Cilic would make the breakthrough this year (top 10) but he has been beyong disappointing. He has the game for this surface but only the brave will back Cilic with any kind of confidence.

I am fading the big 2 right now. This may change. The players who I will be studying over the next few months are Murray/Soderling/Djokovic/Berdych...

If I had to play right now it would be Murray and Djokovic right now they are @ +400 and + 700 respectively, (probably on opposite sides of the draw). With both players it is clearly their favourite surface. Both have made the final here. Although, they both lost to Federer, they would feel they would have a great chance against the 2010 Federer. I don't think they truly believed in the 2007/2008 (finals). They also know this is Nadal's last successful major and if you are going to beat him, it's going to be here.

There are big concerns with the picks. I am hearing big rumours Murray is going to dump Miles Maclagan. I don't think he will until next year and having that fool coaching him doesn't fill me with enormous confidence. Novak has been out of sorts for awhile now. I am gambling on the fact he turns it around.

Another problem is that these 2 can be blasted out of it by the big baseline hitters on any given day. The also both suffer from mental lapses and when things go against them they seem to lack the heart for the battle.

Still at these odds, I feel these are the best  VALUE plays. Interesting to see how much my opinion changes in 2 months.

NOT Nadal is mine for men.

Serena or Venus for women.

The US Open is becoming the toughest of the 4 grand slams to cap on both sides of the draw. Serena is the obvious play, but I will probably take a stab on Justin Henin, hoping her draw is favourable.

 

dunno why i dont know why i dont see a line for her

Justine Henin ruled herself out of this year’s United States Open after discovering that an elbow injury she sustained at Wimbledon was worse than initially thought. Henin, a former world No. 1 who is just six months into a comeback, fell heavily on her right elbow during her fourth-round loss to fellow Belgian Kim Clijsters. Henin said on her Web site that tests revealed a partial ligament fracture of the right elbow

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oops..sorry bout that font size

Nadal in top form winning the French and Wimbledon with the US Open being the only major he hasn't won, I think he gets the monkey off his back and takes it down.

Djokovic seems to always blowup down the stretch which I think is very likely to happen again (I think New York always like to root against him)...  On the otherhand, New York loves Murray but not sure if its his time yet...

I have to see some HC tournaments before I even think of capping the USO... Del Potro's fitness ansd Roger's attitude most of all. Murray has a shot but no way on Djoker unless he really shows me something this month.

I liked Henin too...Ok will sit on the fence till Tourney time but I will not be investing much.

Nadal for me seems to peak this time of the season. For the 6 weeks combining the French Open and Wimbledon.  What he tends to do right now is take 5 to 6 weeks off and relax in Majorca. He needs to do this as his body needs a recovery period (more then the average player). It's clear the French and Wimbledon are the tournaments that mean the most to Nadal.

When the hard court season starts all of a sudden he begins to look beatable. It's very hard to keep raising his game, reach that peak numerous times a season. Which just goes to show just how good Federer was/is.

The hardcourts also effect Rafa's joints more. We saw the Aussie open. He sais he was fine the whole way through the tournament (before Murray match there was no indication that there was a problem) yet Nadal withdrew in severe agony against Murray and needed to take 2 months rest afterwards. Therefore +330 with all the reasons outlined above and the fact he has never won here, means is not good value. The atmosphere in Flushing meadows is completely different from any other tournament and Rafa does not seem to thrive here.

I do believe he will win here (US Open) one day. The guy is a champion and like Federer found a way to win the French open.

Djocko is just a big hunch I have..I have already played on the +700. I think this price will go down. Anyway wanting to fade me here I won't try to hard to sway you. I have no statistics to show you that Djocko is about to turn this around. I just saw a few things at Wimbledon I liked. He was in my opinion one point away from a Wimbledon final (if he wins the second set tie break, he wins the match). When you consider grass is his least favourite surface I think we will see how improving all the way to the US Open..

I mean not investing much on the women... The way it should be

I'm thinking Bird Shit or Soderling finally break through here. It plays so fast that Rafa usually gets blown off the court by somebody. Bird Shit and Soda are heavy hitters that should do well. Roger seems on the decline but he's always a huge threat. 1) Bird Shit 2) Soda 3) Federer 4) Nadal 5) Murray 6) Djoker. I don't think anybody else can win. Del Potro isn't going to sit out all year and suddenly win this slam. The women's side is all Serena. Henin is out. Venus and Clijsters are too error prone. I could see Sharapova possibly taking down Serena but I doubt it.

Yeah Mike I agree. I am looking at Berdych/Soderling/Murray (as well as Novak). I don't think anyone else outside the top 6 in the market can with this thing. It's about being able to determine correctly who can finally make the step up. They are question marks over all of the guys above.

IF Murray is in good form going in I think he will go close. The guy is a very talented player and has all the tools to win a grand slam. On these courts he believes he can win at that is the difference. The draw is crucial here but I think Murray has to be the play at these odds if he shows good form. I am banking he will, so I am going to take the +400 on offer right now. Come finals day this could turn out to be a lovely hedge..

Ok I am locked and loaded. Got Murray @+400 after Wimbledon and just took +1200 e/w on Djoko..Might play e/w on Berych too..

Good Luck, time for fun, talk later

6 weeks later, and still saying same thing.  If Nadal DOES NOT win Cincy, then I will like him a lot more as his price will get nicer as public will stay off it.

The women's game is an atrocity, which is exactly why I see Venus or Serena coming out, as under the radar as possible for them, and playing each other with the winner lifting the trophy.

I am a massive loss to this forum. Got Djoko @+1200/1400 e/w. Another pre tourney bet comes in. Can hedge like mad with Nadal now..your loss is my gain

Promise broken. Expected.

good job Mack what you think about final? or you not even interested considering your hedgeing

Burning I am not coming back so its not promise broken, inside of hating you should respect remarkable capping here. People should be begging to come back. HELLO! That's 4, yes 4!! pre tourney backs in a row all in the + coming in. Thats simply incredible. I say I have a huge Hunch on a +1400 and it hits. Are u kidding me!?

Nadal rolls today. Djoko too tired..I have hedged huge, either way I am laughing

So, in post number 9 you say:

"Djocko is just a big hunch I have..I have already played on the +700."

Then:

"Ok I am locked and loaded. Got Murray @+400 after Wimbledon and just took +1200 e/w on Djoko"


Suddenly the price you have is +1400?!
How is that possible?!


That's not me talking, it's mathematics.

can you go back to being a massive loss to the forum? Also that was your doing, not anyone else.

Stating the facts retard. He was +700 after Wimbledon, +1200 after Toronto and +1400 after Cincinatti. Those are facts..Want me to swear on the bible? Mathematics No. Plain and Simple Facts yes..

You never posted the +1400

You posted the +700 and the +1200. That averages to +950.
You lost your Murray future and yesterday you said you hedged on Nadal, again another awful move considering it was supposed to rain and Nadal's price was always going to go down so you lost at least 50 cents on the Nadal hedge as well...
That means you are down to small profit, still good not saying otherwise, but nothing like you are trying to sell here, and nothing good enough to bump a 2 months ago thread.
Believe me, nobody is missing you.
Only morons got Djokovic at +700 and you are one of them, his price doubled the week before US Open.

You claim to be the best capper on Covers but you still fail to understand that recent form is the most important aspect in Tennis and you are so stupid that maybe after the US Open finishes you will bet the Australian Open 2011 winner and if that bet somehow hits you will be bragging about it while nobody with some intelligence would.

You tell BP that he should "respect remarkable capping here." while in the first post you say "Djocko is just a big hunch I have..I have already played on the +700. I think this price will go down. Anyway wanting to fade me here I won't try to hard to sway you."

When did a big hunch started to qualify as remarkable capping?!


How come you didn't bump that going away present thread or whatever it was where you lost a -250?
Oh that's right, it lost, so it doesn't count, what a stupid question this was from me.