1. Novak Djokovic
7. Marin Cilic
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
13. Richard Gasquet
20. John Isner
23. Kevin Anderson
26. Jack Sock
28. Martin Klizan
Top Half
There was a time when Djokovic’s opener against Jerzy Janowicz would
have been a potential highlight match of a tournament. Those days faded
fast for Janowicz who is just getting going on tour again after missing
most of the season due to injury. In his few matches back, his serve
looks like it’s still lacking consistency and that should play right
into Djokovic’s hands. The top seed probably would have preferred
someone though with less potential than Janowicz for his first round
match. Still, Janowicz has not been able to turn the clock back to 2913
when he was most relevant. Barring Djokovic’s wrist still being a major
bother, expect the Serb to get through round one, but with perhaps a
hiccup of losing a set.
Djokovoc should otherwise be relatively pleased with his early draw. In his half, Gasquet, Isner and Klizan are the seeds. None will invoke fear in the defending champ. Klizan in particular could be a round one upset victim. Mikhail Youzhny is the opponent and the Russian has been playing fairly consistently again on this surface this summer. Klizan’s lack of hard court playing time could be a major issue if Youzhny starts fast. Gasquet flashed enough in Winston-Salem to believe he could be the fourth round date for Djokovic. The Isner-Tiafoe match in round one in this portion of the draw could be interesting, but Tiafoe still lacks the finishing/winning touch at this level.
I can see seeds holding here for Djokovic-Gasquet fourth round battle. The Serb holds a slight 12-1 edge over the 13th seed in their careers. Again if health holds up, Djokovic really should not see much trouble getting to the quarterfinals – but health is a legit question.
KEEP AN EYE ON
American Ernesto Escobedo who has a winnable opener against Lukas Lacko.
The 20-year-old won the Lexington Challenger this summer and has played
some tough tennis against lower tier opponents like Lacko. This is a
great shot for him to get Grand Slam win #1.
Bottom Half
Cilic will come in with confidence after winning the title in
Cincinnati. With Tsonga, Anderson and Sock as the seeds in this half –
he should feel reaonsably good about a quarterfinal run. Sock once again
draws Taylor Fritz in the opening round of a slam. He survived in
Australia in five sets. Fritz hasn’t done much to inspire confidence of
late, but playing a familiar opponent can help. Fritz definitely has a
shot to push Sock, but he’ll need to find his A game. Anderson should be
able to get off to a winning start against Yoshihito Nishioka who
usually has a tough time matching up with big servers. Anderson could
definitely use a straight forward win to get going after an injury
plagued and inconsistent 2016 so far.
In spite of Tsonga’s recent poor play, he’s got a nice draw that should see him with a legit shot to get to round three. He opens against Guido Andreozzi and then has James Duckworth or Robin Haase. It looks like Tsonga-Anderson third round clash is in the cards here unless Vasek Pospisil gets the losing stick that has been shoved up his rear end in 2016, but that seems unlikely at least enough to win more than a match. If it is Tsonga-Anderson in round three, the Frenchman has won both career meetings. The last came in Shanghai last year, but both were very tight with tiebreakers playing a prominent role.
AND THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE BECAUSE THE PIG SAID SO …
Djokovic will be very keen to reestablish himself as the King after the
disappointment of Rio. From all accounts, it was tough on him mentally,
but he’s had time to regroup and there are few in the game who carry a
grudge better than the Serb. As a top seed, you often need to find some
outlying extra to give yourself some motivation at-times and Djokovic
should have plenty of that due to Wimbledon and Rio. The big question of
course is whether his wrist will hold up.
Cilic is the obvious dark horse here and with a final and semifinal at the U.S. Open in the last two years, he should have a chance to at least play for a spot in the semis. Cilic has a pretty good route to getting there, having beaten Tsonga four times in a row and Anderson in five of six career meetings if either is in his way. The Croat got crushed by Djokovic last year in the semis and is 0-14 against him. Still with the current version of Djokovic, this could more resemble their five set battle at Wimbledon a few years back.
The uncertainty surrounding Djokovic has me looking to Cilic, but of course there will be no shock if Djokovic comes through here with flying colors.
4. Rafael Nadal
5. Milos Raonic
10. Gael Monfils
15. Roberto Bautista Agut
18. Pablo Cuevas
24. Lucas Pouille
31. Albert Ramos-Vinolas
32. Benoit Paire
Top Half
Nadal should enjoy his half of the quarter. The other seeds stuck in
with him are Bautista Agut, Pouille and Ramos-Vinolas. RBA looked about
spent on Saturday in the Winston-Salem final, so he could now be a
candidate for an early upset. Playing fellow Spaniard Guillermo
Garcia-Lopez in round one will be rough with just one day of rest. RBA
has won both previous meetings, but this is a really tough spot now for
him. As for Nadal, he opens with Denis Istomin and should work over the
inconsistencies of the Uzbeki. Rafa’s seed on the way to a fourth round
run is Ramos-Vinolas who has been up and down.
The best first rounder in the top half should be Thomaz Bellucci against Andrey Kuznetsov. Bellucci isn’t likely to produce the home cooking he scored in making a surprising quarterfinal run at the Rio Olympics. Kuznetsov is an unknown after a weird week in Winston-Salem where he advanced on a retirement and a walkover before losing to eventual champion Pablo Carreno Busta. He’s got the chops on hard courts to be tough, but hasn’t shown enough recently to suggest that he will be a tough out.
KEEP AN EYE ON
Lucas Pouille. The 24th seeded Frenchman hasn’t done much since his
Wimbledon quarterfinal, but has a draw that could open up if RBA is
gassed from the long week in Winston-Salem. Pouille has to get past
veteran Mikhail Kukushkin to open, but then could have a legit shot to
get to round four despite never winning a match at the USO in the past.
Bottom Half
Raonic gets Dustin Brown to open. Brown injured his ankle severely in
Rio, but appears ready to go this week. On hard courts, I don’t think he
would pose a big threat to the Canadian even if fully healthy. The 5th
seed should enjoy a nice path in this half to the quarters, unless
Monfils is able to shake off a back injury and catch fire again. Monfils
has a tough opener against Gilles Muller. La Monf is the real danger to
Raonic’s chances of a deep run if healthy. Raonic will have to adjust
to not having John McEnroe with him as well as his former coach split
with him this past week to avoid any conflicts between working with
Raonic and his commentating commitment with ESPN. I don’t think that
will hold any ill effects for Raonic.
Pablo Cuevas and Benoit Paire are also in this half as seeds. Cuevas might be fortunate to get a win in this draw. He opens against Dudi Sela who can be tough as nails on this surface when he’s on his game. If Cuevas survives there, he could very well see a familiar clay court foe in Nicolas Almagro in round two. Nico can be a danger on this surface, but has not been in the best run of form this season. Paire too seems like he will be fortunate to win more than one as he opens against Dusan Lajovic. The Serb beat Paire on clay earlier this season and could be a surprise if wrist and elbow problems that plagued him in Los Cabos are gone. In that tournament, Lajovic surprised Bernard Tomic and he also played Fernando Verdasco tough in a loss in Atlanta on this surface. He is no push over.
A win would see Paire likely against Marcos Baghdatis. The Cypriot starts with Facundo Bagnis, a match he should expect to win relatively easily. Paire owns a couple wins over Baghdatis, but they have been tough matches. The Frenchman’s inconsistency means he could be out in round one or headed to round three likely to see Raonic.
AND THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE BECAUSE THE PIG SAID SO …
If Gael Monfils is fully healthy, then this quarter gets a whole lot
more interesting and looks more like a three horse race with Nadal,
Raonic and Monfils. Also as I laid out, Pouille could be a deep runner
here if RBA is gassed in that part of the top half. Nadal has a far
easier path to the quarterfinals and so long as he can maintain some
consistency like he did in Rio, he should have a great shot to be in
position to play for a semifinal.
Raonic has fallen short of the quarters each of his five trips to New York. This appears to be his best shot to break that streak, although Monfils may have something to say about that. Rafa has taken five of six from Raonic and plenty of those have come on hard courts. The draw fell well for Nadal and this might be one of his best chances in years to get himself a shot to be involved in the business end of a Slam not named the French Open. Raonic seems the logical choice based on surface, but ease of the draw points toward Nadal.
Predicted Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
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