Various Plays/Match Takeaways/General Discussion

 Greetings all, I'm going to start posting my plays here as I've hopped on and read through the threads here for a bit now. Capping tennis matches came from a love for the sport for me. I've been watching and following ATP and WTA matches for over a decade. I cap ATP matches more frequently than WTA. 

Takeaway from Garin vs Bautista Agut

Garin has some serious issues right now. He's been far to passive, not just in this match but in general. He has patches of good, intentional tennis but he seems lost out there right now. I lost on Garin +2.0 today and in hindsight I should have known to stay away from him. That loss against Berrettini in the semi's last week was a tough one to bounce back from. He played right into Aguts hands today and showed no respect for Aguts skillset. Kept hitting into the open court and giving Agut the opening down the line. The play against Agut should be hard and deep up the middle and back behind. Also Garin caught in no mans land on return. He either needed to step back a little or really step into the court. 

1-1 on the day with Fokina -2.0 and Garin +2.0

Upcoming plays 

Berrettini vs Millman over 9.5 games 1st set -115

Sinner +2.0 1st set +110

Mager +2.0 -110 and 2-0 +285

Keys +5.0, ML +330, and 2-0 +650

Mladenovic +2.5 -110 and ML +135

Brady ML -145

Medvedev ML +110 (fading Karatsev, I didn't like what I saw against Kecmanovic, Karatsev looked physically weary)

Goffin ML -130 

Futures Plays 

FAA to win quarter +250

Tsitsipas to win quarter +175 and title +650

Keys to win quarter +6000

@Rangerglass

 Good luck 

Sorry for the straight trash I played yesterday ugh. Hindsight is always fun. Anyway. I will not be discouraged by one bad day. Good work on Delbonis to everyone who took him yesterday. Garin, Medvedev, and Goffin had some of the worst performances I've seen. Did Goffin even play? 

Upcoming/Current Plays

FAA ML -150 (this is my main play today)

Nishikori ML +320 (Small play here. I hit big with Zverev to beat Nadal (+360), win his quarter (+400), make the final (+1200), and win the title (+2000) last week but I believe conditions are much better for Nishikori here, and Zverev is much more vulnerable to a let down. Zverev could very well maintain his level and win here but this is about as good time for Nishikori to win as your gonna get IMO)

I have a small play on one parlay today too FAA+NISHI+OPELKA @+2360 

BOL today everyone!

I'll post a screenshot of my transactions with Zverev futures hits from last week so you know I'm not just making stuff up lol

I still wouldn't follow me until I give you a current reason to though haha

Can you copy and paste screenshots here?

@Rangerglass

 Lmao. Too dumb. fAA is the dumbest bet on the board and you have to be challenged to back him today. And now Zverev will probably win in straight sets. Whose money are you gambling?

@remeedella

 Glad to hear your opinion. FAA came through a tough match against Krajinovic and showed some good mental strength to come back after being up a number of times and losing serve. I'll take the loss and move on. Delbonis played well and took risks when he needed to, but 25 unforced errors in the first set and 40 for the match is really bad from FAA. Many of the key points were won by delbonis due to those unforced errors. FAA should win this match if he plays anywhere close to his best tennis though. 

@Rangerglass

 Lmao. He's gonna get unforced errors because he's playing a real player now. Not only is delbonis playing stupid good which is unfair to his nature but you're taking a player who just got confidence after beating basically a mental fortitude of a 9 year old. I could of beat Schwartzman. And now you trust Nishikori? Please watch the match

i got the over in the nishikori match....i hope they keep the 2 set tight so we all can win....6 4 7 6

@remeedella

 Just my two sense for whatever it’s worth. I think your assessment on del boner play right now is spot on. Unless he’s playing a top 10 player right now, he’s an absolute threat to win clay court matches. 

Little harsh to get on ranger for a “dumb play” but def a play I didn’t like at all. 

We all see things differently obviously, but bet against boner at your own risk moving forward. 

And now you have the drama, the only match being played ATM and all kinds of wind and court problems are throwing off Zverev and it's complete bullshit. He isn't even doing anything wrong

I took an early loss but I wasn't going to give up 1.85ml odds on Zverev right before I felt his pressure coming. Serving for this set and still has the upper hand. Win or lose those odds were a gift

And noshikori takes command of the 3rd set.

@marquee_

 I'm sorry, what?

This'll prove my worth I think. Never don't trust Zverev no matter the score if you know he showed up giving a shit. I knew this. Nishikori is definitely back to his former self, will probably dominate on hard Court soon but it wasn't enough here even with a bunch of assholes for the whole crowd giving nothing for Zverev. Next, Rublev

I'm sure everyone here thought this would be a tough match. Bautista agut on clay? Rublev exposing him quick and early

@remeedella

 Totally agree. Rublev gifting Agut game 7. Rublev is forcing Agut to press on everything right now. Agut doesn't look comfortable at all. 

@Rangerglass

 Completely different players. I saw this as a cake walk. Still a long way to go. I see Them can force the win here too even vs an Italian. Crowds don't bother Thiem, he's a champion

@remeedella

 Yep, One of the best coming back after dropping 1st set for sure. 

Thiem fury coming. Bautista always behind on defence. What else today

LOL. Whole crowd has to go home for curfew. With Thiem dragging that out and taking it there's no way he doesn't win this match now. Sonego has nothing without that crowd

Yeah telling the crowd to go home on Rublev RBA match was essentially the same as telling RBA to go home. 

Sonego +4.0 -105 and ml +295 

Rublev was getting annoyed yesterday and I didn't like his focus. He had two bp's to go up 5-2 and let RBA back into the set with some poor errors. Again he got up an early break in the second set only to let RBA back in again. Rublev did well to level the score at 4-4 in the second and was able to break RBA after the crowd left the stands (the crowd was definitely giving RBA some energy) and then serve out the match relatively comfortably. Sonego thoroughly impressed me with his comeback win against Thiem. He has used the dropshot well this tournament, and has been attacking the net when the opportunity comes. Rublev can struggle moving forward when it's not on his own terms, and I actually noticed a few times Rublev could have come in and taken the ball out of the air against RBA but chose not to. If Sonego can serve well again Rublev won't be able to break as easy as he did RBA. The crowd has potential to play a roll here with spurring Sonego on and even getting under Rublevs skin here (not putting too much weight here but its definitely a factor)

@Rangerglass

Was gonna lay off all 4 matches today but ur post is well-reasoned and insightful. Damn you, Ranger! Gonna be a small wager though. 

Djoker already wondering how long they will have to play in the rain. 

Nah. Rublev over sonego in 2 with a small hedge of 2-1 / or sonego wins exactly 1 set. Zero value so no play. But Rublev was toying with the guy yesterday and I fear this might even be easier for him today, this is right up his alley. He showed no emotion or did he even smile at the end vs Agut. Was a walk in the park