Various Plays/Match Takeaways/General Discussion

Here's a good one. Barrios vs Baez over 21.5 , cubs ml @ +2.90

Really wanted to take Baez straight up but I think this can go 3 sets, thats an easy over number for 3 sets

Burned by my indecisions

Interesting take on Rublev I saw him as really focused and zoned in vs rba. When rba said let the crowd in for him to serve down 3-4 Rublev walked by I thought It was weird he didn’t acknowledge rba or the judge. After he held serve when the line judge told him the crowd was exiting he said “Why’s he want the crowd to leave” totally clueless on what was happening. Goodluck 

Opelka +5 -125 

If Nadal does what no one has come close to doing this tournament so be it but I don't see how Opelka doesn't cover this spread. He's been efficient and should have plenty of gas left in the tank to continue serving well. 

@nattyorange

 I just rewatched some of Rublev's match vs RBA. There is NO way you can call that zoned in. He was up 4-1 serving to go up 5-1 and he gave away a very cheap break. Next game he's hitting returns into the net off very average serves from RBA and hitting numerous rally balls wide including an incredibly simple sitter at the net. I get it, sometimes a player will build a sizeable lead and maybe get a little relaxed, lose a little focus, whatever it happens. But serving up a break at 2-1 in the second he was hitting a lot of balls too central in the court (probably due to the fact he was missing so many wide in the 1st set) and allowed RBA back into the set, this time without the insurance break. These kinds of things cause me to feel he's vulnerable against Sonego. I don't think he's going to build a lead as easily vs Sonego and he can't afford these rough patches tomorrow. 

I think Rafa rolls here 64 62 type...Opelka has served his way to the semis like Mr. Cinderella...on clay, Nadal knows how to dismantle big boom servers...i will be wagering Rafa -4.5 most likely if the juice is reasonable...anything can happen though

Rublev definitely struggled moving forward on Sonego's drop shots. Even when they weren't great. 

Good call 

much appreciated 

@packersbackers

I'm seeing this play out like you now. Hedged my Opelka +5.0 with Nadal live -4.5 @ even 

@Rangerglass

 tnx for the OPelka and Rublev calls. Took the parlay: Opelka +4.5 / Rublev +3.5. I owe you a beer

Bedene +2.0 -110 and ml +135 (He should be favorite. Simple as that.)

Thiem -4.0 -105 (Norrie has played a lot of tennis and this is a bad match up. Thiem knows he needs wins before FO.)

small plays on Paul (+5.0 +110) (ml +600) and Koepfer (+5.0 -120) (ml +450). These are mostly situational plays.