Week of July 29 - Tennis Thread

Locked in:

Rodionov +4.5 games (-125)...Novak should never be this heavy a fav vs anyone ranked in the top 300, let alone against a fellow countryman playing as a lovable underdog infront of friends and family of his own.

More picks to come later today...studying the following matches looking to find enough reasons to back:

Gulbis, Berankis & Vandewedge 

Good morning sir,

long time follower, keep up the great capping. Would you sprinkle a little on the ML for Rodionov?

Yes, if your bankroll allows for such gambles, perhaps .25 or .5u in the ML is worth it here in my opinion...Rodionov actually has a nice game and his ranking is deceivingly low because of overall lack of atp level matches...but its tennis and backing dogs can always blow up in your face if they get down early...good luck sir 

pack you need to get another sportsbook. -125? it's-110 on bookmaker. -125 is hella expensive!

Books vary for sure with tennis lines...just checked now at b365 its back up to -138...i dont like bookmaker for several long standing reasons...they cant handle my action...only euro books can

bookmaker is very reputable. i often bet over a thousand a match. it's still at -110 there.  5dimes also currently has this at -110. I travel to europe a ton. bet365 is used by soccer junkies in the UK who don't really understand/care about price.

i was in england for wimbledon and walked into 5 betting shops such as Ladbrokes. I checked lots of lines against bookmaker and 5 dimes and was shocked and how bad the lines were over there. i guess bet365 is better than those brick and morter places which is why the brits fund them.

Its a fair tradeoff i suppose, if i want to wager 5 figures, they dont even blink...no north american book has ever been able to satisfy my overall needs and demands in a book...and the ones that i trusted with my action all cut me off when it was obvious i wasnt a losing bettor...pinnacle, dimes, sports interaction all restricted my action to the point where i could no longer fundamentally wager with them...i know b365 and whill arent the best odds, but they have earned my blind trust over the past 10+ years and i would never consider betting elsewhere given my overall level of spend.

packers... just curious, what kind of actions besides blocking your account can the books make to restrict your bets??

Without notice, they can limit your max bet...for example, one day i made 20k profits from wagering heaving on an ingame tennis match when i spotted a potential "something something" happening within the first several games...the following day, i log in, all my money was there, however when i go to place my next wager, my max bet was limited to $3.03...total...the book straight out told me they dont want winning bettors and that they only cater to recreational gamblers...needless to say, i had nearly 100k in that account, i was pissed because had i lost that money, they would have easily and happily allowed me to keep betting...it took me over 6 months to get out all my funds and it was a horrible experience overall...thankfully i document all my screen shots, wagers, and have even a personal friend who acts as my "legal team" whenever i need to stand strong versus an online book...this is sometimes necessary with non-euro books...experience trumps all.

damn... that sucks, it's good to know! GL always

That sucks.  These guys bend and change the rules to suit them as and when required.  I won $3,500 on a futures bet on Federer winning Wimbledon in 2017 at Bovada and they refused to payout as they said I had another account.  Had I lost the bet they would have kept my money.  

Locked in:

Alexandrova ML +150...1.5u

Alexandrova +2.5 games +100...2u

Alexandrova to win 1st set +125

Alexandrova to win 2-0 sets +300...half u

This is purely value here imo, Alexandrova is a decent enough hard court player with several lower level titles on this surface, whereas Sakkari has been mediocre at best on the hards throughout her career...the odds are scewed here due to rankings alone, at least thats how i see it...wouldnt surprise me if the final score was 64 64 for the dog here...that would be nice indeed

I got her +8.5 Live and she won’t even cover that... lol

Terrible misread...moving onward...wont be backing AA for a long time:

Locked in:

Janvier +3.5 games (-120)...2u

Coco V +3.5 games (-110)...2u

Coco V ML +175...1u

Nice hit PB!

Locked in:

Nishioka ML +190...2u

Nishioka +3.5 games (-120)...3u...pure fade on Evans as a medium fav - this match is a coinflip in my opinion

totally agree! GL

Thanks Kaga...only wish i followed thru with Gulbis but i was just too tired to track it.

DonkG ...GL2U2 today

Afternoon Pack.    Would you happen to have an opinion on Sloane Stephens today?  Good luck today  Thx in advance

Hey TH1, i would be surprised if Peterson won a set here, she could easily get steamrolled by something like 62 64

Perhaps Sloane to win 2-0 sets (-120) is worth a look?

Packers... really nice call on Nishioka! keep up the good work

very good call. great work Packer.

I’m a newbie, but I don’t understand the applauding before it’s over.  Completely foul where I’m from