Roger I'm assuming you mean the game line? It's easier to win than it is to cover a spread..Also the site I'm using at the moment doesn't have spreads lol...but tomorrow i will have access to spreads...still don't understand those #'so
Jailbait..hope u saw my last messages and laid off thiem...
Added Matosevic +190 and Baghdatis -125 but apparently didn't go thru
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Roger I'm assuming you mean the game line? It's easier to win than it is to cover a spread..Also the site I'm using at the moment doesn't have spreads lol...but tomorrow i will have access to spreads...still don't understand those #'so
Jailbait..hope u saw my last messages and laid off thiem...
Added Matosevic +190 and Baghdatis -125 but apparently didn't go thru
Lebronnn...the injury was the reason for the line..but since I don't wanna be one of those guys that makes picks then changes or cancels them (very lame; and I already have one) I'm sticking to my original official picks!
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Lebronnn...the injury was the reason for the line..but since I don't wanna be one of those guys that makes picks then changes or cancels them (very lame; and I already have one) I'm sticking to my original official picks!
[Quote]It's easier to win than it is to cover a spread.
Sure, but when you're laying huge chalk, one or two losses can darn your entire week. The ATS lines are derived from the ML prices -- so, if there's value in the ML, then there's value in the ATS line as well. Otherwise, the Sharps would come in and exploit whichever market was mis-priced.
[Quote]...still don't understand those #'s
Basically, the greater the mismatch, the more the books need to weight the price in favour of the dog (because the books don't collect any vig when the favourite wins) in order to maintain the same Theoretical Hold as they're getting for more closely-matched markets.
Sooo...the EV (your expected return per bet over the long-term) is going to be better playing in markets with lower bet-spreads. It's always negative (unless you're playing an arb, or have found a rogue number somewhere), 'cause otherwise the books wouldn't make money!
But, it assumes an efficient market. The handicapper makes money long-term by exploiting inefficiencies in the market. So if he or she is skilled, then, the EV should be positive. But you're still better off playing a market with the best possible (i.e., least-negative) EV.
In other words, once you've found a side which you think is mis-priced, you can still determine which market to play, based upon the line-set. (That's why the books don't really make money on Baseball: ten-cent standard lines, with some books offering even less during the overnight hours.)
There's a more thorough explanation here: https://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/.
If you want, I can send a spreadsheet which calculates the No-Vig, the implied probabilities, and the EV -- all you need to do is plug in the different line-sets, and compare...
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Quote Originally Posted by lsu-saints4ever:
Roger I'm assuming you mean the game line?
Yeah, Game lines.
[Quote]It's easier to win than it is to cover a spread.
Sure, but when you're laying huge chalk, one or two losses can darn your entire week. The ATS lines are derived from the ML prices -- so, if there's value in the ML, then there's value in the ATS line as well. Otherwise, the Sharps would come in and exploit whichever market was mis-priced.
[Quote]...still don't understand those #'s
Basically, the greater the mismatch, the more the books need to weight the price in favour of the dog (because the books don't collect any vig when the favourite wins) in order to maintain the same Theoretical Hold as they're getting for more closely-matched markets.
Sooo...the EV (your expected return per bet over the long-term) is going to be better playing in markets with lower bet-spreads. It's always negative (unless you're playing an arb, or have found a rogue number somewhere), 'cause otherwise the books wouldn't make money!
But, it assumes an efficient market. The handicapper makes money long-term by exploiting inefficiencies in the market. So if he or she is skilled, then, the EV should be positive. But you're still better off playing a market with the best possible (i.e., least-negative) EV.
In other words, once you've found a side which you think is mis-priced, you can still determine which market to play, based upon the line-set. (That's why the books don't really make money on Baseball: ten-cent standard lines, with some books offering even less during the overnight hours.)
There's a more thorough explanation here: https://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/.
If you want, I can send a spreadsheet which calculates the No-Vig, the implied probabilities, and the EV -- all you need to do is plug in the different line-sets, and compare...
Send it over....what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
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Send it over....what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
Not sure probably tomorrow as it's late in England but maybe today...jailbait wait until I say 'official' plays sometimes I throw a match out there as a lean but change my mind keep that in mind sorry about that
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Not sure probably tomorrow as it's late in England but maybe today...jailbait wait until I say 'official' plays sometimes I throw a match out there as a lean but change my mind keep that in mind sorry about that
i bet thiem but that lost also rba and dolgo and the parlay
not exactly ready to bet 550 and 700 to win 100 in tennis these days. as others have said, it doesnt take a tremendous amt of talent to pick those but they can be tricky and you seem to nail them. congrats. clearly some people are comfortable laying the big chalk money and you've made them a lot of monies so far.
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Quote Originally Posted by lsu-saints4ever:
Did u at least get to bet my 'official' picks?
i bet thiem but that lost also rba and dolgo and the parlay
not exactly ready to bet 550 and 700 to win 100 in tennis these days. as others have said, it doesnt take a tremendous amt of talent to pick those but they can be tricky and you seem to nail them. congrats. clearly some people are comfortable laying the big chalk money and you've made them a lot of monies so far.
[Quote] what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
Yeah, that's interesting...difficult for the line-makers to account for that, I'd imagine.
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Quote Originally Posted by lsu-saints4ever:
Send it over....
[Quote] what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
Yeah, that's interesting...difficult for the line-makers to account for that, I'd imagine.
[Quote] what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
Yeah, that's interesting...difficult for the line-makers to account for that, I'd imagine.
Oops, forgot to include the link. Sheet 1 is an Arb Calculator, and Sheet 2 is the EV Calculator.
[Quote] what I don't like about spreads is I truly believe in long matches like these players will do their best to tire out their opponent...So if they're up 5-1 they can hit the ball around to make opponent run all over the court.. They may lose the point or game but at 5-1 they can afford that. . Then, serving at 5-4, play ball.. Same result as 6-1 only now your opponent is tired.. Make sense?
Yeah, that's interesting...difficult for the line-makers to account for that, I'd imagine.
Oops, forgot to include the link. Sheet 1 is an Arb Calculator, and Sheet 2 is the EV Calculator.
LSU, you are doing a marvelous job. Don't pay attention to those who criticize your way of winning big chalks consistently. Selecting big chalks forces you to think really carefully about the matchups. As large tournament like the French progresses, big chalks are few and far between, and I find you select reasonable chalks in later rounds. Appreciate sharing your thought. Another thing, who cares about your record as long as you are winning most of them? You were 6-0 in your official selections today, especially after you withdrew Thiem well before his match started.
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LSU, you are doing a marvelous job. Don't pay attention to those who criticize your way of winning big chalks consistently. Selecting big chalks forces you to think really carefully about the matchups. As large tournament like the French progresses, big chalks are few and far between, and I find you select reasonable chalks in later rounds. Appreciate sharing your thought. Another thing, who cares about your record as long as you are winning most of them? You were 6-0 in your official selections today, especially after you withdrew Thiem well before his match started.
P.S. Thiem play was cancelled well b4 match..and I mentioned big favs at 1st already ...although I hit with matosevic today just trying to go undefeated again
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Official picks:
Kohlschrieber -365
Vesely -435
Nishikori -695
Women's in a few
P.S. Thiem play was cancelled well b4 match..and I mentioned big favs at 1st already ...although I hit with matosevic today just trying to go undefeated again
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its all good
waiting for ur picks!!
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