Local syndicate book. 007data.. thought I snuck one in there, but they caught it 20 mins after I made my bed.. that really sucks seeing as Lopez is now down 2-0 in the rubber.
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Local syndicate book. 007data.. thought I snuck one in there, but they caught it 20 mins after I made my bed.. that really sucks seeing as Lopez is now down 2-0 in the rubber.
There are alot of matches to sift through but after doing the preliminaries there are some plays that stand out as having value to me despite the juice.
Feliciano Lopez -300 over Karol Beck (not Andreas Beck)- ok guys looking at this match it looks great despite whats on paper .1-1 H2H for which the last one was in 2005 that K.Beck won indoors, also its should be noted Karol Beck is a good grass player at 37-17 and 6-4 in last 10. Lopez is 6-4 but only 25-17 for his career on this surface. So why am I taking Lopez with such confidence, well digging a little deeper Beck is more of a challenger player his record is largely due to fact he plays grass warmup challengers and hasn't played anyone of note in sometime of grass at the ATP level. He lost to Simon Gruel in the qualies and is a LL he is going up against Lopez who last year was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and himself had a good warmup at Queens a few weeks ago. I expect Lopez to have a few tie breakers possibly if Beck's serve is on but he should win this in 3-4 sets. Possible games over wager here on games played as both players have big serves.
Igor Andreev over Evengy Korolev -220- here is another huge mismatch undervalued in the opening round. Igor is 10-11 on grass, not spectacular but better then the 1-6 that Korolev put up losing in the 1st round of the two warmups to wimbledon Andreev didn't fair much better as he was bounced by Dancevic in the 1st round the other week. H2H Korolev leads 1-0 on clay in Valencia last year. The mismatch comes in style of game Korolev is a good returner and has some holes in his serve on the other side Andreev has a very good serve and he himself is a good returner and can volley a bit but prefers to remain behind the baseline. The advantage of serve to Andreev is huge at Wimbledon as he will have a lot of free points via the Ace or Unforced errors by Korolev. Although wimbledon is one of the fastest surfaces out there expect Andreev to get plenty of chances to break Korolev because the guy flat out has a weak serve, he will give Andreev many chances to win this match and I believe Andreev will make good.
Dudi Sela -175 over Santiago Gonzalez- Sela is ahead 1-1 H2H with retirement 2 years ago, this doesn't say much but after looking at Sela playing well in his last grass warmup and seeing Gonzalez struggling in qualies here at Wimbledon droping sets to Giovanni Lapentti and Ruben Bemelmans. This choice is easy Sela has a good serve and moves well, Gonzalez is more of a dirt baller where his serve is not nearly as important, he has a decent serve but nothing that will scare Sela. Sela showed by beating Rochus and Kunitsyn in his last touney he is better then is 3-9 record on grass would leave you to believe. Gonzalez is 10-11 on grass but hasn't beaten anyone ever that is as note worthy as Rochus or Kunitsyn so the numbers are a little misleading. Sela takes this in 3-4 sets
Throwing a 4th pick in on the Mens side
Gicquel -205 over Mannarino-this match makes no sense. Gicquel is a good player on grass he has a good serve and volley style when he's on, he also tends to like to play behind the baseline. Mannarino has a decent serve and tends to go better on clay. Mannarino dropped a few sets in qualies and H2H is 1-1. The difference is level of play. Gicquel went 1-2 in 3 warmup ATP level matches but lost to two guys who made the semi's or better in each tourney. I expect Gicquel to come through in 4.
WTA Plays
Sprem -110 over Kulikova- Kulikova is a young upstart who came through qualies in impressive fashion and Sprem is an old hand that still has some game left in her. Sprem made it run matches deep at Wimbly in 06' and lost her only grass match to Rodina a week or so ago. So why am I high on Sprem -big serve is her main weapon she hang with alot of wta players on this surface if not for that alone. For me there is some value to be had in this short dog at Kulikova is priced -120.
Alexzandra Wozniak -175 over Schiavone- huge value Alexzandra is incredible form coming of a semi-final appearance taking Caroline Wozniacki to 3 sets on grass. Schiavone is in good form herself making to semis and push Wickmayer to 3sets in last touney. Wozniak leads 1-0 from last year on hard court. Expect Alexzandra to take this in 3 with her recent motivation and big serve to carry her through till next round
GREAT CUT AND PASTE JOB....BUT YOU ARE NOT TRYING TO PASS THIS OFF AS YOUR WRITE-UP..RIGHT??
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Quote Originally Posted by gtmoney76:
Ok enough of the advice lets move on
Day 1 plays-
There are alot of matches to sift through but after doing the preliminaries there are some plays that stand out as having value to me despite the juice.
Feliciano Lopez -300 over Karol Beck (not Andreas Beck)- ok guys looking at this match it looks great despite whats on paper .1-1 H2H for which the last one was in 2005 that K.Beck won indoors, also its should be noted Karol Beck is a good grass player at 37-17 and 6-4 in last 10. Lopez is 6-4 but only 25-17 for his career on this surface. So why am I taking Lopez with such confidence, well digging a little deeper Beck is more of a challenger player his record is largely due to fact he plays grass warmup challengers and hasn't played anyone of note in sometime of grass at the ATP level. He lost to Simon Gruel in the qualies and is a LL he is going up against Lopez who last year was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and himself had a good warmup at Queens a few weeks ago. I expect Lopez to have a few tie breakers possibly if Beck's serve is on but he should win this in 3-4 sets. Possible games over wager here on games played as both players have big serves.
Igor Andreev over Evengy Korolev -220- here is another huge mismatch undervalued in the opening round. Igor is 10-11 on grass, not spectacular but better then the 1-6 that Korolev put up losing in the 1st round of the two warmups to wimbledon Andreev didn't fair much better as he was bounced by Dancevic in the 1st round the other week. H2H Korolev leads 1-0 on clay in Valencia last year. The mismatch comes in style of game Korolev is a good returner and has some holes in his serve on the other side Andreev has a very good serve and he himself is a good returner and can volley a bit but prefers to remain behind the baseline. The advantage of serve to Andreev is huge at Wimbledon as he will have a lot of free points via the Ace or Unforced errors by Korolev. Although wimbledon is one of the fastest surfaces out there expect Andreev to get plenty of chances to break Korolev because the guy flat out has a weak serve, he will give Andreev many chances to win this match and I believe Andreev will make good.
Dudi Sela -175 over Santiago Gonzalez- Sela is ahead 1-1 H2H with retirement 2 years ago, this doesn't say much but after looking at Sela playing well in his last grass warmup and seeing Gonzalez struggling in qualies here at Wimbledon droping sets to Giovanni Lapentti and Ruben Bemelmans. This choice is easy Sela has a good serve and moves well, Gonzalez is more of a dirt baller where his serve is not nearly as important, he has a decent serve but nothing that will scare Sela. Sela showed by beating Rochus and Kunitsyn in his last touney he is better then is 3-9 record on grass would leave you to believe. Gonzalez is 10-11 on grass but hasn't beaten anyone ever that is as note worthy as Rochus or Kunitsyn so the numbers are a little misleading. Sela takes this in 3-4 sets
Throwing a 4th pick in on the Mens side
Gicquel -205 over Mannarino-this match makes no sense. Gicquel is a good player on grass he has a good serve and volley style when he's on, he also tends to like to play behind the baseline. Mannarino has a decent serve and tends to go better on clay. Mannarino dropped a few sets in qualies and H2H is 1-1. The difference is level of play. Gicquel went 1-2 in 3 warmup ATP level matches but lost to two guys who made the semi's or better in each tourney. I expect Gicquel to come through in 4.
WTA Plays
Sprem -110 over Kulikova- Kulikova is a young upstart who came through qualies in impressive fashion and Sprem is an old hand that still has some game left in her. Sprem made it run matches deep at Wimbly in 06' and lost her only grass match to Rodina a week or so ago. So why am I high on Sprem -big serve is her main weapon she hang with alot of wta players on this surface if not for that alone. For me there is some value to be had in this short dog at Kulikova is priced -120.
Alexzandra Wozniak -175 over Schiavone- huge value Alexzandra is incredible form coming of a semi-final appearance taking Caroline Wozniacki to 3 sets on grass. Schiavone is in good form herself making to semis and push Wickmayer to 3sets in last touney. Wozniak leads 1-0 from last year on hard court. Expect Alexzandra to take this in 3 with her recent motivation and big serve to carry her through till next round
GREAT CUT AND PASTE JOB....BUT YOU ARE NOT TRYING TO PASS THIS OFF AS YOUR WRITE-UP..RIGHT??
Fuck I swear Monaco is the laziest SOB and Sela is shiting the bed, Monaco is going to lose because the stupid head case can't keep it together and Sela is in the same boat.
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Fuck I swear Monaco is the laziest SOB and Sela is shiting the bed, Monaco is going to lose because the stupid head case can't keep it together and Sela is in the same boat.
damn what a wild start. I just followed your stuff and parlayed Lopez -350 and Andreev -210. I expected to be sweating Andreev but Lopez is going the distance. I freakin hate that Wimbledon doesn't have 5th set tiebreakers so the torture can last forever. Come on Lopez! I almost got greedy and threw Blake in on my own for a few extra bucks. Good thing I have no faith in myself when it comes to tennis!
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damn what a wild start. I just followed your stuff and parlayed Lopez -350 and Andreev -210. I expected to be sweating Andreev but Lopez is going the distance. I freakin hate that Wimbledon doesn't have 5th set tiebreakers so the torture can last forever. Come on Lopez! I almost got greedy and threw Blake in on my own for a few extra bucks. Good thing I have no faith in myself when it comes to tennis!
Lopez up 30-0 and serving like a champ with power tries two cute drop shots and beck blasts them for two winners. I have no idea what he was thinking, his power game was way too much. Now he'll lose like an idiot.
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Lopez up 30-0 and serving like a champ with power tries two cute drop shots and beck blasts them for two winners. I have no idea what he was thinking, his power game was way too much. Now he'll lose like an idiot.
OK well Sperm and Lopez shit the beds and Monaco fell apart late, well Gicquel, Sela cashed waiting on Andreev, Spadea(personal not posted play), Mahut, and Wozniak
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OK well Sperm and Lopez shit the beds and Monaco fell apart late, well Gicquel, Sela cashed waiting on Andreev, Spadea(personal not posted play), Mahut, and Wozniak
These were my plays today. Normally I don't play the heavy favorites because they're just too risky. However I followed you last week and you seemed to do pretty good with them. My last three bets were as follows:
Lopez -400 Mahut -330 Y. Wickmayer -320
What the fuck just happened? I just lost 5K that's what.
Good luck the rest of the day, I'm gunna go soak my flaming asshole.
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These were my plays today. Normally I don't play the heavy favorites because they're just too risky. However I followed you last week and you seemed to do pretty good with them. My last three bets were as follows:
Lopez -400 Mahut -330 Y. Wickmayer -320
What the fuck just happened? I just lost 5K that's what.
Good luck the rest of the day, I'm gunna go soak my flaming asshole.
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