Well Wimbledon is upon us and there are alot of matches to cover and it can be a bit overwhelming so I thought I would start out by giving some advice on preparing to bet this major.
1st- Make sure you are prepared for RAIN. Wimbledon is one of the worst tournements in the world for rain delays and play stopage do to inclement weather. Be sure to account for this when you tie up money in wagers here.
2nd.Make sure you understand your books rules for Tennis delays and retirements. Putting it simply beware of player retirements/injuries etc, you don't want to lose money because some player tweaks an ankle, decides they are just not interested, or they just give up. Books like 5dimes have retirement rules that says advancing player after completion of 1 set wins. There are others like TheGreek that require for 2 sets to be played to have action. Then there is another book I will be using Bookmaker which requires for a match to be completed in its entirety to have action a retirement voids the bet, so baring a walk over your good.
3.Money Management- for those that don't understand this with Tennis, you want to pace yourself there are alot of matches and alot of oppurtunities. Don't go taking matches that you feel are great plays and "Locks" by some peoples standards and go all in. I recommend if you are going to put in a strong bet try and keep it to no more then 1/3 of your bankroll just as a general rule.
4. Playing Style- There are two real schools of thought when betting tennis. One is to pick your plays for the day regardless of schedule and then put them in the night before and that is that. The Second and most common ,myself included, is to sit down and look at the games the night before and then begin the next day by playing my favorite early bets and waiting to see what will most likely win as the morning continues and then bet the next round off those matches. I tend to use a method known as "If-betting" or rolling if bets to maximize my roll. Essentially you place your straight wagers early and based on the results as the matches go on you place an if bet off of those matches so if they win you have action on the next match. I love this method for Wimbledon as it will help to limit the amount of your money in play and it maximizes a small bankroll. The most important thing is that is will only lockup a percentage of your bankroll. The best books for doing IF-Bets at are Bookmaker and 5dimes. 5dimes allows you to place rolling If -bets off pending plays using the internet where as Bookmaker you have to call it in. The advantage to Bookmaker is that when you place a rolling if bet you can make up to 7 bets off of one wager, whereby each wager must win in the order you play them.for the next to have action. 5dimes will only let you make to one if bet off a pending play till the wager is graded.
5. Seeds and "Dark Horses". As a general rule of thumb for parlays and such seeds 1-10 in both the WTA and ATP at a major almost never lose in the 1st round. Its comparable to a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney alot of juice but a huge miss match to the dog, so if you plan on playing one of these huge dogs I would advise against it. On the other hand there will always be a few "Dark Horse" players in the tourney just like this year at Roland Garros in Soderling, if you notice after the 1st two rounds a big dog has gotten on a run because of a unusual "vein of form" , be willing to back that dog in the 3rd round for a reasonable bet 9 times out of 10 it will prove profitable.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Well Wimbledon is upon us and there are alot of matches to cover and it can be a bit overwhelming so I thought I would start out by giving some advice on preparing to bet this major.
1st- Make sure you are prepared for RAIN. Wimbledon is one of the worst tournements in the world for rain delays and play stopage do to inclement weather. Be sure to account for this when you tie up money in wagers here.
2nd.Make sure you understand your books rules for Tennis delays and retirements. Putting it simply beware of player retirements/injuries etc, you don't want to lose money because some player tweaks an ankle, decides they are just not interested, or they just give up. Books like 5dimes have retirement rules that says advancing player after completion of 1 set wins. There are others like TheGreek that require for 2 sets to be played to have action. Then there is another book I will be using Bookmaker which requires for a match to be completed in its entirety to have action a retirement voids the bet, so baring a walk over your good.
3.Money Management- for those that don't understand this with Tennis, you want to pace yourself there are alot of matches and alot of oppurtunities. Don't go taking matches that you feel are great plays and "Locks" by some peoples standards and go all in. I recommend if you are going to put in a strong bet try and keep it to no more then 1/3 of your bankroll just as a general rule.
4. Playing Style- There are two real schools of thought when betting tennis. One is to pick your plays for the day regardless of schedule and then put them in the night before and that is that. The Second and most common ,myself included, is to sit down and look at the games the night before and then begin the next day by playing my favorite early bets and waiting to see what will most likely win as the morning continues and then bet the next round off those matches. I tend to use a method known as "If-betting" or rolling if bets to maximize my roll. Essentially you place your straight wagers early and based on the results as the matches go on you place an if bet off of those matches so if they win you have action on the next match. I love this method for Wimbledon as it will help to limit the amount of your money in play and it maximizes a small bankroll. The most important thing is that is will only lockup a percentage of your bankroll. The best books for doing IF-Bets at are Bookmaker and 5dimes. 5dimes allows you to place rolling If -bets off pending plays using the internet where as Bookmaker you have to call it in. The advantage to Bookmaker is that when you place a rolling if bet you can make up to 7 bets off of one wager, whereby each wager must win in the order you play them.for the next to have action. 5dimes will only let you make to one if bet off a pending play till the wager is graded.
5. Seeds and "Dark Horses". As a general rule of thumb for parlays and such seeds 1-10 in both the WTA and ATP at a major almost never lose in the 1st round. Its comparable to a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney alot of juice but a huge miss match to the dog, so if you plan on playing one of these huge dogs I would advise against it. On the other hand there will always be a few "Dark Horse" players in the tourney just like this year at Roland Garros in Soderling, if you notice after the 1st two rounds a big dog has gotten on a run because of a unusual "vein of form" , be willing to back that dog in the 3rd round for a reasonable bet 9 times out of 10 it will prove profitable.
There are alot of matches to sift through but after doing the preliminaries there are some plays that stand out as having value to me despite the juice.
Feliciano Lopez -300 over Karol Beck (not Andreas Beck)- ok guys looking at this match it looks great despite whats on paper .1-1 H2H for which the last one was in 2005 that K.Beck won indoors, also its should be noted Karol Beck is a good grass player at 37-17 and 6-4 in last 10. Lopez is 6-4 but only 25-17 for his career on this surface. So why am I taking Lopez with such confidence, well digging a little deeper Beck is more of a challenger player his record is largely due to fact he plays grass warmup challengers and hasn't played anyone of note in sometime of grass at the ATP level. He lost to Simon Gruel in the qualies and is a LL he is going up against Lopez who last year was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and himself had a good warmup at Queens a few weeks ago. I expect Lopez to have a few tie breakers possibly if Beck's serve is on but he should win this in 3-4 sets. Possible games over wager here on games played as both players have big serves.
Igor Andreev over Evengy Korolev -220- here is another huge mismatch undervalued in the opening round. Igor is 10-11 on grass, not spectacular but better then the 1-6 that Korolev put up losing in the 1st round of the two warmups to wimbledon Andreev didn't fair much better as he was bounced by Dancevic in the 1st round the other week. H2H Korolev leads 1-0 on clay in Valencia last year. The mismatch comes in style of game Korolev is a good returner and has some holes in his serve on the other side Andreev has a very good serve and he himself is a good returner and can volley a bit but prefers to remain behind the baseline. The advantage of serve to Andreev is huge at Wimbledon as he will have a lot of free points via the Ace or Unforced errors by Korolev. Although wimbledon is one of the fastest surfaces out there expect Andreev to get plenty of chances to break Korolev because the guy flat out has a weak serve, he will give Andreev many chances to win this match and I believe Andreev will make good.
Dudi Sela -175 over Santiago Gonzalez- Sela is ahead 1-1 H2H with retirement 2 years ago, this doesn't say much but after looking at Sela playing well in his last grass warmup and seeing Gonzalez struggling in qualies here at Wimbledon droping sets to Giovanni Lapentti and Ruben Bemelmans. This choice is easy Sela has a good serve and moves well, Gonzalez is more of a dirt baller where his serve is not nearly as important, he has a decent serve but nothing that will scare Sela. Sela showed by beating Rochus and Kunitsyn in his last touney he is better then is 3-9 record on grass would leave you to believe. Gonzalez is 10-11 on grass but hasn't beaten anyone ever that is as note worthy as Rochus or Kunitsyn so the numbers are a little misleading. Sela takes this in 3-4 sets
Throwing a 4th pick in on the Mens side
Gicquel -205 over Mannarino-this match makes no sense. Gicquel is a good player on grass he has a good serve and volley style when he's on, he also tends to like to play behind the baseline. Mannarino has a decent serve and tends to go better on clay. Mannarino dropped a few sets in qualies and H2H is 1-1. The difference is level of play. Gicquel went 1-2 in 3 warmup ATP level matches but lost to two guys who made the semi's or better in each tourney. I expect Gicquel to come through in 4.
WTA Plays
Sprem -110 over Kulikova- Kulikova is a young upstart who came through qualies in impressive fashion and Sprem is an old hand that still has some game left in her. Sprem made it run matches deep at Wimbly in 06' and lost her only grass match to Rodina a week or so ago. So why am I high on Sprem -big serve is her main weapon she hang with alot of wta players on this surface if not for that alone. For me there is some value to be had in this short dog at Kulikova is priced -120.
Alexzandra Wozniak -175 over Schiavone- huge value Alexzandra is incredible form coming of a semi-final appearance taking Caroline Wozniacki to 3 sets on grass. Schiavone is in good form herself making to semis and push Wickmayer to 3sets in last touney. Wozniak leads 1-0 from last year on hard court. Expect Alexzandra to take this in 3 with her recent motivation and big serve to carry her through till next round
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Ok enough of the advice lets move on
Day 1 plays-
There are alot of matches to sift through but after doing the preliminaries there are some plays that stand out as having value to me despite the juice.
Feliciano Lopez -300 over Karol Beck (not Andreas Beck)- ok guys looking at this match it looks great despite whats on paper .1-1 H2H for which the last one was in 2005 that K.Beck won indoors, also its should be noted Karol Beck is a good grass player at 37-17 and 6-4 in last 10. Lopez is 6-4 but only 25-17 for his career on this surface. So why am I taking Lopez with such confidence, well digging a little deeper Beck is more of a challenger player his record is largely due to fact he plays grass warmup challengers and hasn't played anyone of note in sometime of grass at the ATP level. He lost to Simon Gruel in the qualies and is a LL he is going up against Lopez who last year was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and himself had a good warmup at Queens a few weeks ago. I expect Lopez to have a few tie breakers possibly if Beck's serve is on but he should win this in 3-4 sets. Possible games over wager here on games played as both players have big serves.
Igor Andreev over Evengy Korolev -220- here is another huge mismatch undervalued in the opening round. Igor is 10-11 on grass, not spectacular but better then the 1-6 that Korolev put up losing in the 1st round of the two warmups to wimbledon Andreev didn't fair much better as he was bounced by Dancevic in the 1st round the other week. H2H Korolev leads 1-0 on clay in Valencia last year. The mismatch comes in style of game Korolev is a good returner and has some holes in his serve on the other side Andreev has a very good serve and he himself is a good returner and can volley a bit but prefers to remain behind the baseline. The advantage of serve to Andreev is huge at Wimbledon as he will have a lot of free points via the Ace or Unforced errors by Korolev. Although wimbledon is one of the fastest surfaces out there expect Andreev to get plenty of chances to break Korolev because the guy flat out has a weak serve, he will give Andreev many chances to win this match and I believe Andreev will make good.
Dudi Sela -175 over Santiago Gonzalez- Sela is ahead 1-1 H2H with retirement 2 years ago, this doesn't say much but after looking at Sela playing well in his last grass warmup and seeing Gonzalez struggling in qualies here at Wimbledon droping sets to Giovanni Lapentti and Ruben Bemelmans. This choice is easy Sela has a good serve and moves well, Gonzalez is more of a dirt baller where his serve is not nearly as important, he has a decent serve but nothing that will scare Sela. Sela showed by beating Rochus and Kunitsyn in his last touney he is better then is 3-9 record on grass would leave you to believe. Gonzalez is 10-11 on grass but hasn't beaten anyone ever that is as note worthy as Rochus or Kunitsyn so the numbers are a little misleading. Sela takes this in 3-4 sets
Throwing a 4th pick in on the Mens side
Gicquel -205 over Mannarino-this match makes no sense. Gicquel is a good player on grass he has a good serve and volley style when he's on, he also tends to like to play behind the baseline. Mannarino has a decent serve and tends to go better on clay. Mannarino dropped a few sets in qualies and H2H is 1-1. The difference is level of play. Gicquel went 1-2 in 3 warmup ATP level matches but lost to two guys who made the semi's or better in each tourney. I expect Gicquel to come through in 4.
WTA Plays
Sprem -110 over Kulikova- Kulikova is a young upstart who came through qualies in impressive fashion and Sprem is an old hand that still has some game left in her. Sprem made it run matches deep at Wimbly in 06' and lost her only grass match to Rodina a week or so ago. So why am I high on Sprem -big serve is her main weapon she hang with alot of wta players on this surface if not for that alone. For me there is some value to be had in this short dog at Kulikova is priced -120.
Alexzandra Wozniak -175 over Schiavone- huge value Alexzandra is incredible form coming of a semi-final appearance taking Caroline Wozniacki to 3 sets on grass. Schiavone is in good form herself making to semis and push Wickmayer to 3sets in last touney. Wozniak leads 1-0 from last year on hard court. Expect Alexzandra to take this in 3 with her recent motivation and big serve to carry her through till next round
GL mate. I need to have a good day today, setting the alarm for 6:30am. A lot of time my book will forget to take off matches once they've already started. Sometimes even after the first set, so I'll have the dual monitor and laptop rolling to catch any mistakes.
Any really big favs stand out to you initially?
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GL mate. I need to have a good day today, setting the alarm for 6:30am. A lot of time my book will forget to take off matches once they've already started. Sometimes even after the first set, so I'll have the dual monitor and laptop rolling to catch any mistakes.
Adding Juan Monaco over Nicolas Almagro as 1 of my early plays the other is Mark Gicquel. Lopez is is -475 now so I didn't place a straight bet this morning but I love this wager for everyone who got it at -300. I will be here all day so good luck guys
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Adding Juan Monaco over Nicolas Almagro as 1 of my early plays the other is Mark Gicquel. Lopez is is -475 now so I didn't place a straight bet this morning but I love this wager for everyone who got it at -300. I will be here all day so good luck guys
OK here is the deal, Monaco is up in TB but one slip up and he is screwed Almagro has the edge in most stats but Monaco has saved a ton of BP the first two games he was down 0-40 in botrh games. Monaco is just focusing at the last minute. Other then this match I like all the others to cash if you have in game betting.
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OK here is the deal, Monaco is up in TB but one slip up and he is screwed Almagro has the edge in most stats but Monaco has saved a ton of BP the first two games he was down 0-40 in botrh games. Monaco is just focusing at the last minute. Other then this match I like all the others to cash if you have in game betting.
Sprem is shitting the bed in the 3rd set, Lopez is down 2-1 sets on serve in the 4th Gicquel cashed on my plays I have Monaco and an if bet to Sela after that
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Sprem is shitting the bed in the 3rd set, Lopez is down 2-1 sets on serve in the 4th Gicquel cashed on my plays I have Monaco and an if bet to Sela after that
Just put a max bet on Dechy.. Hope it doesn't get cancelled. Also took Cibulkova for what was left in my account, as she's going to win the 1st set. If somehow Lopez can rally, I'm going to be i a great spot.
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Just put a max bet on Dechy.. Hope it doesn't get cancelled. Also took Cibulkova for what was left in my account, as she's going to win the 1st set. If somehow Lopez can rally, I'm going to be i a great spot.
well Monaco will lose 3rd set TB after having MP's up serve the fool is losing it. Lopez down a set and Sprem lost. Sela on serve in 3rd 1-1......hoping Everyone regroups lol
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well Monaco will lose 3rd set TB after having MP's up serve the fool is losing it. Lopez down a set and Sprem lost. Sela on serve in 3rd 1-1......hoping Everyone regroups lol
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