Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

Don't be an emotional fanboy.

You can call me arrogant.  That's fine.  I am giving him advice because he asked me to - and because I am qualified to give advice.  In other words, I know what I am talking about.

But this isn't about me.  And it isn't about telling someone they are going to succeed while watching them drive off of a cliff - there are plenty here giving awful advice because they themselves don't have an understanding of the concepts at hand.

I do have that understanding.  And I will tell you - that the most interesting thing you can say to someone who thinks they can be profitable at sportsbetting - is simply "WHY?".   The first reaction is usually silence - because they have never thought about it.  Are they gifted?  Can they really have a gut feel that is better than everyone else?  Try it sometime.  Ask a gambler who thinks he is good "why are you good?"

With that question alone you can pretty much figure it out.

Seems like everyone has staunch money management beliefs and theories on this thread.  Lots of talk about "long haul" profitability.

The old "flat bet" strategy with a 52.5% breakeven point....coupled with betting a flat 1-3% of your bankroll...eliminate "variance" and play for the "long haul".  This is how fund managers bet.

Also, many believe in developing "systems" that generate plays that are consistent in their nature....every play has to fit a specific criteria, with specific characteristics.

A few thoughts on the subjects of "flat betting" and "systems", from a reformed "flatbettor":

1) Flat betting poses a major problem.  The bankroll has to be large in order to facilitate a decent living when focusing on a 3-5% edge as your  basis for profit.  Also, you have to take as many bets as possible in order to generate enough gross revenue to lock in a healthy 5% after vig and losses.  Both aspects of flat betting essentially bang out small bettors. Simply put, the juice just grinds you up.

2) Systems are problematic.  Most systems are based on historical data, which makes them inherently flawed. Essentially, when one applies a static system with concrete tenants to a dynamic situation (pricing sporting events), one can expect extreme runs of wins and losses. Without a dynamic strategy on how to manage a "system", ie on when to pull the plug on a "system", then the system is worthless.

3) "Flat betting" and "systems" look great on paper. They make for great theory, and discussion. But, in the end, the only thing the academic knows about betting and speculation is that they want no part of it.

SO, what does matter?

1) Mental Capital. Always look to preserve your "mental capital". We can't control what happens on the field, court or racetrack...but we can control how we react to it.

2) Take breaks.  I have been day trading crude oil futures to make a living for the last 4 years.  When I get my teeth kicked in I take a break. It took me lots of money to learn that lesson. Sometimes its what you don't lose that makes a guy profitable.

3) Love what you do.  If you truly love what you do, then the energy will be there to get the job done. The pride and expertise will show up in the work.  Handicapping, trading, and speculation in general is no different.

4) Keep things simple on and off the field.

All in all, there is no "correct" way to speculate. At the end of the day, we keep score with dollars....the rest is just theory and BS. The guy whom taught me how to trade futures had a saying..."always make money....just always make money." 

He was right.

Best of luck with your picks CG.....keep it simple, and do what you know how to do.

CG - quit talking in terms of "days".

Days are an arbitrary time period set by you to help you compartmentalize and organize.  Forge the concept altogether.

A winning day or a losing day should mean nothing to you - just like a set amount you bet per day should not exist.  This goes to what I posted above - if a wager qualifies as a play - you should bet it no matter if you have already bet 20 other wagers that day - and if it doesn't qualify - you should not bet it.

Part of the problem of having a non-quantitative approach (gut feel) is that you tend to bet by days.  You have no way to compare if todays 8th best game is better than last Mondays 1st best game.  I get the feeling that you wouldn't bet todays 8th best game because you limit yourself to a certain maximum number of plays per day - even though todays 8th best game is better than tomorrows 1st best game that you will bet.

This is tough concept to get out of because as humans we do this with everything.  It helps us navigate the world.  But it makes no sense in the gambling world.  People that hedge say this all the time.  They say "it is guaranteed money" - but they are thinking about that bet on that day - forgetting that over the course of many hedges they are giving away money.

It is counter-intuitive, but important to understand.

Very good post. Any money management tips or habits you'd care to share?

Since you asked...

I am going to say this factually.  It might sound harsh, but it is not meant to be that way.  I already told you I am a fan of you and your videos and am hoping for the best.

That being said...  I would bet a large amount of money that you are busto by football season.  That means your current bankroll - without getting a job.

The reason is simple. "Gut feel" successful longterm profitable gamblers do not exist IMO.  They are the great white whales.  There are months, even years - where gut feel gamblers can thrive.  But it wont work longterm - or at least I have yet to see it work longterm.

To add to that - nobody goes 57% - 60%+ year after year on gut feel.  And certainly nobody goes 57-60% year after year without doing some serious line shopping strategies.

The guys who do that percentage year after year do it by not only having predictive statistics models, but also by having predictive line movement models that pinpoint precise times and lines to buy.  And most importantly - these guys KNOW HOW AND WHY THEY WIN.  They are able to articulate the conditions necessary for them to win, and what specific segment they are able to exploit.

A guy who says "I don't know how I win" is doomed.  A guy who wakes up and "caps" by reading previews and getting a gut feel, and then drives down to a sportsbook and bets in to -110 lines (often missing the best line) is doomed.

The biggest predictor of a longterm gamblers success is simply by how much he can beat the closing line.  And to do this, it takes a lot more than just gut feel.

Once again, just being honest here.  A lot of people don't like it when I am honest - most say it is too harsh - but I hope you take it in the way it is intended - for you to possibly take some of it to heart.

GL

I was stating a strong opinion.  Not fact.  But I do strongly believe what I posted above.

I am open to the other side of the debate though.  If someone has a different experience than I do - please share.  But all I have heard on this subject - and all that I have experienced personally - is a lot of conjecture but nobody that actually has first hand experience.  I know roughly 20 people that gamble for a living.  Not one of them does it by gut feel.  That is my experience.