Posted:
#51
I think time is something that can absolutely kill you as a capper with these bowl games - because it ultimately gives you a chance to reconsider every side you're interested in and leads you to question your judgment about a lot of things.
For example, I was an extremely big fan of Kentucky and Iowa going into bowl season. I just absolutely loved the motivation angles for each school, and thought both were capable of winning the coaching matchup and outplaying an opponent that didn't want to be there.
Then I saw the Texas A&M/California game. I watched a TAMU team that was playing great coming in get absolutely dominated by the Bears, losing by 5 touchdowns. California didn't have a whole lot to play for, and wasn't exactly lighting teams up coming in. Yet they found a way to get it together and whip that team.
That night, I decided I liked Clemson. It reminded me exactly of that game; a more talented, more bowl-experienced, more physical team against one who really hasn't been there before. I made a play on Clemson (I go to UK, and was at the bowl game), then watched my Cats absolutely whip them. It was so devastating that I let one bowl game affect my judgment of another. I was proud of them, but was embarrassed that I faded them in what was the school's biggest football game in years.
Then I decided to lay off Iowa as well. I was so scared of Texas playing in San Antonio, and getting fired up to play in this bowl game that, although is below their expectations, is pretty fun to be in. I began doubting Iowa's defense as well. Then, as I watched the Hawkeyes build up a 14-3 lead, I got extremely angry for not trusting my instincts again; and subsequently laid a ridiculous -170 on the Iowa in-game ML. I of course lost that, and found myself down 4 units from those 2 plays which I just out-thought myself with.
From what I counted, there's an approximate 45 games on a normal week of college football. Back in September I was playing somewhere around 6-7 games a week; and got well under .500. Near the end of the season, I found myself playing no more than 3 games a week; and I went on a run of 4 or 5 straight winning Saturdays. Now in bowl season, I've found myself with a 10-12 record through 28 games. It's a disgrace, and I'm extremely unhappy in how I handled things. It's really sad that I even needed action, because I'm also big on both NHL and CBB; and December offers great value in CBB because the books haven't quite figured everyone out yet. There has always been something else there for me to play if I needed action, because there were three sports to choose from. And, on top of that, there are numerous bowl pools I could enter to pick my winners (and give myself a good reason to care about the games), without having money on individual contests. Yet I have managed to make 22 bowl plays so far.
These are things I must change for next year. If not, I'm going to do awful once again.
0
One of the best I've ever seen on covers. I picked up on the motivation factor a couple of years ago after losing once to often on "the better team". I believe motivation is the most important factor in capping these games. There are usually 3-5 teams that really have no desire being at the game. The key is to identify and fade.
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